Getting value after the worst card in the deck hits

[HelixTrix]

Villain seems like a 'bet when checked to' kind of guy, hence the flop play. Turn bet is supposed to look like 'I just picked up a flush draw'. Should I bet more? River card obviously sucks a lot. What's the play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t4530)
UTG+1 (t3030)
MP1 (t10680)
MP2 (t6440)
Hero (t2990)
CO (t3190)
Button (t6135)
SB (Villain)/ (t9115)
BB (t3665)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t275</font>, CO calls t275, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t700) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t300</font>, Hero calls t300.

Turn: (t1300) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t800</font>, CO calls t800.

River: (t2900) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero? (All-In)</font>

[alewis21]

Raising with this hand with 4 folds in front isn't a terrible play, but why do you check the flop. That is your first mistake. By checking you open the door for him to bet, and because he seems aggressive, his bet can mean absolutely anything - you have no clue where you stand. Even if he checks behind you, your top pair has a high risk of drowning in overcards on the turn and river. You need to bet the flop in order to clarify your hand and take the pot down.

The turn is a great card for you obviously, but here you want to check to an aggressive opponent. You flip flopped your plays (bet the flop to take it down, check the turn to trap aggressiveness). There's a good chance he'll bet, and then you check raise - don't get cute by calling, two pair with draws on the board shouldn't be slowplayed too much.

Aggressive opponents try to take advantage of weakness. They will put money in the pot when they have the upper hand. They won't call strength without genuine strength, so that's why I don't like the turn bet. A check call and then a bet into shows serious strength, and your two pair won't get action unless he has a hand himself. This bet does NOT look like you picked up a flush draw, as you said it did.

The river was an unfortuante card for you. An all in is a terrible move, but ironically is common among those who lose their nerves and are afraid of being 'bluffed out' after checking. All in is bad because:

You aren't certain you have the best hand anymore, and it would show serious strength on your part that wouldn't be called by any hand except by the ones that beat you.

Just check it. If he puts you all in then you'll have a difficult choice to make, but there's a good chance he'll check behind you to a showdown.

If he goes all in, you should fold. If you played the hand differently you would have more information, but you don't have enough to pay him off.

[HelixTrix]

Thanks for the reply alewis, but I'm afraid I disagree with just about everything you've said [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you check the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Two reasons: I expect pps to make up a significant part of his cold-calling range (I don't plan to call two bets), and I expect him to bet the rest of his range too. If he hits a 6-outer, fine, I'm not fighting over a big pot oop here. Given my play to this point (very tight) my flop call tells him I have something far more clearly than a bet does so I will believe a turn bet.

[ QUOTE ]
The turn is a great card for you obviously, but here you want to check to an aggressive opponent

[/ QUOTE ]

Pointless. He bets a pocket pair and probably folds to a check-raise, and checks behind everything else. If I bet, he calls with a pocket pair and often calls the river as well.

[ QUOTE ]
The river was an unfortuante card for you. An all in is a terrible move, but ironically is common among those who lose their nerves and are afraid of being 'bluffed out' after checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I descibed the river as the 'worst card in the deck' what I had in mind was that it looks to the villain like it hit my whole range. I didn't mean I think I might be behind now! In terms of the pot size allin is 'standard' as it is around three-quarters of the pot. Of course it never gets called though...

[ QUOTE ]
If he goes all in, you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has 88, nh. I'm not folding. What I want to know is, how does checking compare to betting allin or betting smaller. After he calls the turn I think he has a pp pretty much always. Does he ever call any size bet? Does he ever bluff hoping I can fold an ace or have a pp lower than an ace?

[Pokerfarian]

Check/fold river....he has PP 77- &amp; turns it into a bluff very very very few times and what else do you beat? Remember we're behind hands like 99

[HelixTrix]

Um, you missed that I have 2 pair.

[BigAlK]

I agree with Alewis' assesment on the flop/turn, but that's because that's how I would play it. Your response has me considering the possibility that your way is better although I agree with Alewis that in no way does this look to me like you picked up a flush draw. I also think his range could potentially include heart overs although only KQ seems likely given the river card. (This could be expanded depending on buy-in and reads on villian.)

In any case if your goal here is to get the most money in on the assumption that your hand is best (something I seriously doubt is the case) then a weak lead might induce a bluff raise (if he interprets your bet as weak). The all-in might look like a bluff, but I doubt he calls with anything weak enough for you to beat.

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, you missed that I have 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

99 does too. 99 and 22 which beats 88 and 55. Um.

[Pokerfarian]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, you missed that I have 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Um, you missed he has a better 2 pair with a hand like TT

[HelixTrix]

Let me reframe this into the question, is this a spot for a blocking bet, say 400 or so? I tend to think of river blocking bets as being for marginal hands (usually) and near-nut hands (enough to balance the times you get bluff-raised). Given that the villain's turn call turns his range into pps like, always, would it be fair to consider my 2 pair to now be a 'near-nut hand'?

[HelixTrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Um, you missed that I have 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Um, you missed he has a better 2 pair with a hand like TT

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, whoops [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

How embarrassing. Let us never speak of this thread again.