Oop semibluff late in NL $109

[LCposter]

I failed to take into account that he called your PF raise with only 15 BBs. I think his calling range is tighter than you listed. I can see the average villian calling with AJs or KQs, but I think he jams with AQ, JJ/TT and most jam 99/88 too. Also, I think you should include AA/KK/QQ in his calling range, even if discounted.

Anyway, I don't know that my pre-flop range is any more accurate than yours. Assuming your pre-flop range is correct, I don't think he bets all these hands the same way. He's more likely to jam the AQ/AJ draws and check behind with 99/88. His 6k bet tilts his holdings towards a made hand of jacks or better.

[HelixTrix]

Generally yes and I realise a lot of times people see 3 to 1 and then their brain switches off and they call with anything. I just think this was close and interesting because I wanted to gamble to get a tournament-winning stack and here are the scenarios:

Will a worse hand call? No (only AJs which is a tiny dog to my backdoor flushdraw)

WIll a better hand fold? Yes, sometimes

Will a similar hand fold? Yes, usually

Am I toast when I get called by better? In terms of money odds, not that bad

[HelixTrix]

[ QUOTE ]
I failed to take into account that he called your PF raise with only 15 BBs. I think his calling range is tighter than you listed. I can see the average villian calling with AJs or KQs, but I think he jams with AQ, JJ/TT and most jam 99/88 too. Also, I think you should include AA/KK/QQ in his calling range, even if discounted.

Anyway, I don't know that my pre-flop range is any more accurate than yours. Assuming your pre-flop range is correct, I don't think he bets all these hands the same way. He's more likely to jam the AQ/AJ draws and check behind with 99/88. His 6k bet tilts his holdings towards a made hand of jacks or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect you're right, certainly postflop and maybe pre as well. My intention is not to prove that my play was massively +ev. I do think betting out against his range (yours or mine) is worse than just check-folding. I just also think that given my need to fight for a competitive stack, check-raising is very interesting given the very high reward of getting a fold, weighed against the moderate equity against his auto-call range and the decent equity against his speculative call range. I accept though that AA/KK will pop up sometimes and that is a problem, except that with both of us being in EP it seems a horrible play to me and I would imagine most people realise that.

[jrock901]

I was thinking the same thing as LC. If he has 99+, and AQ+ he's jamming with that stack..at least I would. Then again that would be a gamble wouldn't it since you're new to the table and you could very well have AA or KK. Unless he has AA or KK and is slow playing his hand. LOL my head is going to explode.

[HelixTrix]

I'm constantly struggling with the issue of balancing gambling to increase high place finishes while avoiding making -ev plays and this one is pretty confusing. All I can say before I go to bed is that on the jamming front, I felt at the time that the psychological makeup of the table was cautious and I would have been surprised if the guy had overbet-jammed any of the hands in his range at that point.

[Pokerfarian]

I think this is very tricky to evaluate because it's hard to accurately guess his range. For example, the range of hands I'd call, i.e. not push/fold, with that stack size, is KK+

[HelixTrix]

I think I may have figured this out now. The reason it is a confusing situation is that there can't be ANY hands that it is right for the villain to cold-call with in EP with an M of just over 6. Here's a quote from the Mathematics of Poker:

'Sometimes it may seem that you are being exploited on a particular street while playing near optimally. However, this often occurs because the opponent has sacrificed equity on a previous street in order to obtain the position where he can exploit on this street.'

The trouble is, the equity he gave up preflop doesn't go to me. It goes to the rest of the table, particularly the BB, when they wake up with an AQ or TT type of hand that would have folded to a raise and reraise from EP. After the flop, his range is considerably stronger than mine so I just have to check-fold when I miss. Comments on this analysis would be appreciated.

[betgo]

You don't have a strong enough draw for this with gutshot, backdoor, and overcard. This is a flop that is likely to hit villain. I would just cbet and fold to a raise.