Paperchamp's NFL week 15

[paperchamp]

Denver Broncos -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals (-112)
Risk 1.12u to win 1u
I think this is as good as the line is going to be between now and gameday so I went ahead and grabbed it at Pinny. At first glance this looks like a terrible bet. Betting a favorite on the road when the favorite has been playing poorly and the dog has been playing well. However, two things are motivating me to take the Broncos. The first is that we have a decent AFC team against a sub-par NFC team. I've been looking for these types of match-ups all year because of the disparity in the conferences. So far they have worked well for me. Second, it's do or die for the Broncos. I think this factor is almost offset by the Cards wanting to save Dennis Green's job but still worth mentioning.

NFL YTD

Straight Picks: 14-13-1 (0 units)
2 Team Teasers: 15-6-1 (+17.9 units)
4 Team Teasers: 2-0 (+12 units)

[paperchamp]

Two more plays this week...

New York Jets +3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings (-104)
Risk 1.04u to win 1u
I had a feeling the Jets would be better than everyone anticipated. They were a playoff team in 2004 when Pennington was healthy. Exactly how good they are is pretty hard to tell but I think they can handle a team like the Vikings. I've watched the Vikings quite a bit this year and I have not been impressed. Much like the Broncos and Cardinals game, I find the disparity of the two conferences to be at fault for this line. I think that the Jets should be favored on a neutral field and as such I will gladly take the 3.5 points in Minnesota.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Carolina Panthers (+101)
Risk .99u to win 1u
I'm fairly sure that Jack Delhomme is not going to play. As such, I think that the Steelers are a pretty big favorite to win this game convincingly. Chris Weinke will have a very tough time with the Steelers blitz schemes. An announcement is expected to come tommorrow about whether Delhomme will play and even if he does, he won't be healthy. The Steelers are on a roll after starting the season out terribly. Big Ben has shown flashes that he can once again be the exciting player that he was last season. Although they have likely missed the playoffs, the Steelers are an extremely proud team and will be out to prove that last year was no fluke and that they are still a dominate team in the NFL.

[paperchamp]

First teaser for this week...

Two-team Teaser
STL +2.5/+8.5
ARZ +2.5/+8.5
Risk 2u to win 2u

[paperchamp]

Adding two more teasers...

Two-team teaser
STL +2.5/+8.5
SD -8/-2
Risk 2u to win 1.8u

Three-team teaser
STL +2.5/+8.5
SD -8/-2
ARZ +3/+9
Risk 2u to win 3.6u

[paperchamp]

Well, my "fade the nfc" system worked like a charm this week. 3-0 on straight picks. Still waiting on the result of the San Diego game to finalize my teaser record for the day. I'm waiting to see how far the Cincinnati line moves to decide if I'm going to take them tommorrow night.

[paperchamp]

Results for the day

Straight picks: 3-0 (+3 units)
Two-team teaser: 1-1 (-0.2 units)
Three-team teaser: 0-1 (-2 units)
Total: 4-2 (+.8 units)

New NFL YTD

Straight Picks: 17-13-1 (+3 units)
2 Team Teasers: 16-7-1 (+17.7 units)
3 Team Teasers: 0-1 (-2 units)
4 Team Teasers: 2-0 (+12 units)
Total: 35-21-2 (+30.7 units)

[Dementia]

good job bro

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
good job bro

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! I was pretty happy this week as I had a few other unposted picks hit as well (riding another capper's picks).

[paperchamp]

The Bengals line is getting better, I think I'll wait just a little longer before i grab them at +3.5. I'm already playing the under. I'll make the picks official soon.

[paperchamp]

MNF added...

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (-112)
Risk 1.12u to win 1u

Cincinnati Bengals/Indianapolis Colts (U 55) (-107)
Risk 1.07u to win 1u

While the Colts are one of the better offensive teams in the league, they have been playing poorly on offense their last few outings. The Bengals are ranked as one of the worst defensive teams in the league but have been trending upward in the last few games. They are better defensively right now than their stats would suggest. With the weakness of the Colts run defense, Rudi Johnson will likely get a lot of carries shortening the game considerably.