200nl: Random position bluff in 3 bet pot

[Mr_Donktastic]

Villain is basically unknown - playing 30/10/5 over 60 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $193.95
UTG: $95.70
UTG+1: $212.70
MP1: $165
MP2: $206.25
Hero (CO): $219.35
BTN: $195.60
SB: $298.40

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $20</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $13

Flop: ($42) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $28</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $68</font>

[ASPoker8]

Seems pretty spewy, both pre and postflop

[moldman]

If he defends his blinds a lot, looks good to me. You should be able to make overcards fold (unless they are clubs), and I'd assume that makes up most of his range. I'm good with this though, as well as good with a fold preflop.

[Mr_Donktastic]

His 3 bet is pretty small.

And he's aggro.

And I have position.

And I have an ace.

And its sooooooooooooooted

[TRWIII]

I'm OK with the flop raise, while the call is meh. It depends on how often villain defends his blinds versus how often he only plays his two cards. I probably call too for what it's worth, but after you whiff the flop and the villain fires again, it's time to bow out gracefully and look for a better spot. Would this line work occasionally? Sure, but I can't imagine it works often enough to show a profit. That being said, blind steals vs. blind defenses is a weak point in my game, so take this with a grain of salt.

TRWIII

[Albert Moulton]

He has to fold about 50% of the time for the flop raise to be +EV.

Given his style of play (30/10/5), and your CO raise when folded to you that will look like a steal attempt, his preflop reraising range is probably no narrower than TT+,AQs+,AQo+. Possibly wider than than.

Using that range, I don't think he's folding most of his overpairs to your raise unless you fire a bigger bet on the turn. And he probably isn't folding QQ-AA even then.

The fact that you have an ace means that 8 combinations of AQ and AK are no longer part of his range. There are 24 combinations of missed AK/AQ, and 27 combinations of overpairs to the board.

That means your raise won't work over 50% of the time unless it is big enough, your image is tight enough, and villain is disciplined enough, to fold TT-JJ to your raise.

I think your raise on the flop is therefore a bad play since it won't win often enough to be +EV, and will cost you a lot more on the turn if you end up following through with another big bet only to find you get called or CedRAI.

Interestingly, if you didn't have an ace, then this might be marginally +EV since he would have 32 combinations of AK/AQ and only 30 combinations of big pairs meaning that he'd fold the overcards a little more than 50% of the time.

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Preflop, I don't try to steal the blinds even from CO in a FR game with Arag-suited. I just limp or fold. In the live games I play, blinds steals don't work all that often. Usually, at least one and often all three players left to act will call the raise. That makes the steal a low percentage play unless I've got some reason to believe they'll all fold because of how they're looking or holding their cards. And I fold if I'm raised a decent amount after limping unless it was the button who raised, and both blinds called, and the stacks are pretty deep, in which case I'd see a flop looking for a whole lot more than top pair weak kicker.

As played for the blind stead, I'd fold to the reraise. It was good effort to steal that got caught by a laggy guy in the blinds. So, I'd let him have it.

As played on the flop, I'd fold ususally, but sometimes I'd float the flop bet in order to play for a club, heart, or ace on the turn. That makes 23 "outs" (about 46% to hit one on the turn) with which I could either bet or raise (on the heart or club) or check behind to induce a river bluff (with the ace). And if the turn was an Ace and villain bet big again, I'd probably fold instead of call again. But usually, I'd just fold to the donk bet for the reasons described above.

[pureCra2z]

A+ for AM

[jimmytrick]

A+ for table image versus 2+2 readers, posting this.

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
A+ for table image versus 2+2 readers, posting this.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

AM:

Good analysis but we play totally different styles so I disagree with a lot of what you say.

I steal somewhere between 40-50% of the time. Axs is close to the top of that range. Because I steal alot I get 3 bet alot, so I have to defend vs that lighter than usual.

I do think this raise works 50% of the time or more.

[ QUOTE ]
As played on the flop, I'd fold ususally, but sometimes I'd float the flop bet in order to play for a club, heart, or ace on the turn. That makes 23 "outs" (about 46% to hit one on the turn) with which I could either bet or raise (on the heart or club) or check behind to induce a river bluff (with the ace). And if the turn was an Ace and villain bet big again, I'd probably fold instead of call again. But usually, I'd just fold to the donk bet for the reasons described above.

[/ QUOTE ]

About this bit - your thoughts about turn are in line with what I was thinking but I like the raise &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; than a float because I still have a lot of play left in the hand and the turn card can make things interesting. In other words I'm giving myself another way to win the hand.

The only problem with the raise is if I get 3 bet but I don't think that happens too often.

[threads13]

I can see how it makes sense to do this as a mix up play from time to time. I wouldn't do it everytime and I would have a read on him before I call his initial preflop 3-bet.