.25/.50 lo/8, simple hand, I might be overthinking

sfgiants · #1 07-03-2007, 02:47 PM

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Omaha/8 (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

I ended up check/calling, but how bad would it have been to lead out? I seem to have the idea in my head that it's okay to initiate fresh money into the pot with a nut flush draw if you expect 2 or more players to call. I don't really know where I came up with that but upon further evaluation, it seems incorrect. For one, this is a split pot game, so even though I am 35% (or thereabouts, I don't know the exact percentage), to hit the flush by the river, I can always split. Then again there's always the possibility of getting raised.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

9 outs = 3.89 to 1 = 20.45%
The pot is $3.50 with .50 to call, which on the surface offers 7:1. However, the low is out, so I divide 3.50 in half to 1.75, which only offers 3.5 to 1 =FOLD. Is this the right approach to take? If the low is out, do I simply divide the pot in half when making pot odds calculations? How should I incorporate implied odds into my analysis? Let's say if I hit my flush, both players will call. On the river (.50 *3) / 2 = .75 earned, .25 more than my fair share. Could this .25 be added to the previous 1.75 to make this a break-even play?

River: (8.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

bbartlog · #2 07-03-2007, 03:31 PM

Turn is a fold. To begin with, you don't have 9 clean outs - some of your hearts (the 6 and 8) enable a full house. Second, just as you noted, you only get half the pot even if you make your flush. A good rule of thumb would be: once the low is made, don't draw to the flush on the turn unless there's 10BB in the pot when it's your turn to call, *and* you're closing the action.

Buzz · #3 07-04-2007, 12:24 AM

Giant Fan - After this flop, you have the nut flush draw and little else.

36/45*35/44= 0.63636. Thus the probability you’ll make your flush is 0.36364, but some of that time the board will be paired.

If you want the probability of making your flush without the board pairing, it’s more like (8*7/2+8*26)/990 =(28+208)/990 = 236/990 = ~0.24
Of that, roughly 0.21 is with low and 0.03 is with no low (scoop).

I can’t tell you exactly what to do the ~0.12 when you end up with the flush but the board is paired. Roughly for half of that, the board pairs on the turn, and I suppose you fold to a bet at that point. But the other half, when you make your flush on the turn but the board pairs on the river, or you make your flush on the river but the board also pairs on the river, you have a tough decision.

The 0.3636 probability does not reflect the possibility of getting kicked in the teeth by a full house when you do make your flush. And it also doesn’t reflect the possibility of splitting with low.

Roughly three times out of 100 you make your flush and scoop while 21 times out of 100 you make your flush and split. And 64 times out of 100 you simply miss. The other 12 times out of 100 are enigmatic because the board will also be paired.

What does that all mean for betting the flop?
3 times, with three opponents, you win 3 bets
21 times, with three opponents, you win 1 bet
64 times you miss and lose 1 bet
Let’s say the other 12 times you play cleverly and manage to somehow break even.
9+21-64 = a negative number.

3 times, with four opponents, you win 4 bets
21 times, with four opponents, you win 1.5 bet
64 times you miss and lose 1 bet
Let’s say the other 12 times you play cleverly and manage to somehow break even.
12+31.5-64 = still a negative number

3 times, with five opponents, you win 5 bets
21 times, with five opponents, you win 2 bets
64 times you miss and lose 1 bet
Let’s say the other 12 times you play cleverly and manage to somehow break even.
15+42-64 = still a negative number

3 times, with six opponents, you win 6 bets
21 times, with six opponents, you win 2.5 bets
64 times you miss and lose 1 bet
Let’s say the other 12 times you play cleverly and manage to somehow break even.
18+52.5-64 = finally a positive number.

Yikes! You need at least six opponents who will call your bet to get favorable odds. That’s almost impossible.

Basically, considering implied odds and what is already in the pot, I think you have favorable odds to call a bet, but not to initiate a bet (or raise).

All the same, I’d bet here.

I’d bet because a bet here tends to protect your bets on other hands where you have better odds and it tends to protect your flush when you make it. But I’d only use this tactic when it seems reasonably certain you won’t get raised.

But from a pure odds standpoint, it’s hard to fault check/calling. That (check/calling) would probably be my default play in a more aggressive game.

[ QUOTE ]
I ended up check/calling, but how bad would it have been to lead out?

[/ QUOTE ]I'd lead.
[ QUOTE ]
I seem to have the idea in my head that it's okay to initiate fresh money into the pot with a nut flush draw if you expect 2 or more players to call.

[/ QUOTE ]That is incorrect.

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is $3.50 with .50 to call, which on the surface offers 7:1. However, the low is out, so I divide 3.50 in half to 1.75, which only offers 3.5 to 1 =FOLD. Is this the right approach to take?

[/ QUOTE ]You have implied pot odds to consider. I think you're getting about 4.25 to 1 impied pot odds, while the odds against making your flush (with the board not pairing) are about 37 to 7, roughly 5.3 to 1. It's close. I suppose a fold is best, but it's not a huge leak if you see one more card.

Buzz

Buzz · #4 07-04-2007, 06:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
A good rule of thumb would be: once the low is made, don't draw to the flush on the turn unless there's 10BB in the pot when it's your turn to call, *and* you're closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Bart - Thanks. That is a pretty good rule. I'd add that in order to have favorable implied pot odds, you want two opponents who will pay off when you make your flush on the river. Hopefully each might have a nut low so that they're stuck in the pot and get quartered. You might even get in more than one bet.

Only one opponent and you're still a bit short on implied pot odds.

There are some different considerations for one opponent. For example, maybe your one opponent won't have a low and will simply be betting a straight, set or two pairs for high, hoping to knock you off a flush draw.

But even if you don't quite have favorable odds, when they're not too terrible there can be some advantage to showing some tenacity - not for the current hand, but for the sake of future hands.

If your opponents think you'll yield to pressure, some of them will apply the pressure. That can be lucrative, but meanwhile you subject yourself to the pressure.

Buzz

sfgiants · #5 07-05-2007, 05:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is a fold. To begin with, you don't have 9 clean outs - some of your hearts (the 6 and 8) enable a full house. Second, just as you noted, you only get half the pot even if you make your flush. A good rule of thumb would be: once the low is made, don't draw to the flush on the turn unless there's 10BB in the pot when it's your turn to call, *and* you're closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the reply. Pretty boneheaded move by me to forget the possibilities of the full-house. Thank you for pointing that out.

Could you please also explain how the 10BB rule-of-thumb is derived? It's always great to know guidelines for specific situations, but it's even better to be able to apply certain learned concepts to different situations.

For instance, how might I approach this situation if the low hadn't have been enabled o the turn? How would I go about deriving the necessary odds?

Returning back to this particular hand, I’ll try laying out some thoughts here and perhaps someone can correct me.

On 08poker.com, Greg suggests multiplying by .4 rather than .5 when going for half of the pot because half of all bets you make end up going to the opponent.

In this particular case I had to call .50 into a 3.50 pot. 7:1 * .4 = 2.8:1. I would then factor in implied odds, but I am at a loss for how to quantify this figure. Buzz suggests 4.25 to 1 implied odds, but I must admit to not quite understanding how one arrives at this figure. I would then compare this to the 5.3 odds necessary to draw to 7 outs. This seems to align well with the 10BB rule-of-thumb you posted, seing that I divided by two earlier in my analysis.

Perhaps my entire question could be boiled down a request on how players such as yourself go about calculating necessary pot odds and implied odds in a split-pot game? For instance, if the low is enabled, do you first multiply the amount of money in the pot by .4? What if there is one low to come, should I multiply by .55, .6, some other figure? I assume you do NOT simply divide the ODDS in half. ie whereas normally 4 outs= 9.09% = 10:1, I could not simply say I need 20:1 if I am drawing to half the pot.

Whew. Sorry for this long post. If it seems like I am going in circles it's because I am. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I just want to get these concepts down solid. I figure learning once-and-for all will save this forum a lot of future posts from a relative novice such as myself! You know, that whole teach a man to fish analogy.

sfgiants · #6 07-05-2007, 05:55 AM

Thanks for the reply Buzz, as always. Your post trigged some thinking in me. Initially I didn't quite follow why it would still be okay to CALL a bet on the flop but it was unfavorable (using strictly odds and nothing else) to INITIATE a bet. After all, the mathematical figures indicated it was a negative proposition to put more money in the pot if less than 6 people called.

However, upon further analysis, the negative number is a relative number - that is overall I still have the odds to put more money in the pot, but on this particular street my EV would be highest if it were checked around with no fresh money. Is this line of thinking correct?

Buzz · #7 07-05-2007, 07:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Initially I didn't quite follow why it would still be okay to CALL a bet on the flop but it was unfavorable (using strictly odds and nothing else) to INITIATE a bet. After all, the mathematical figures indicated it was a negative proposition to put more money in the pot if less than 6 people called.

[/ QUOTE ]Giant Fan - It's a negative proposition to initiate more money into the pot. But because of money that is already in the pot and also because of money you expect to win on the last betting round if you make your hand on the river, it's a positive proposition to call someone else's bet.

[ QUOTE ]
However, upon further analysis, the negative number is a relative number - that is overall I still have the odds to put more money in the pot, but on this particular street my EV would be highest if it were checked around with no fresh money. Is this line of thinking correct?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes.

It's not exactly the way I thought about it, but yes, that's one (correct) way of thinking about it.

Buzz