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  #11  
Old 11-24-2007, 12:40 PM
Unknown Soldier Unknown Soldier is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

fgators hacked your account?
  #12  
Old 11-24-2007, 01:14 PM
STARSCREAM. STARSCREAM. is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could try 4betting, I don't see why you should go straight to 5 betting that's pretty weird, as played don't fold!

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 100bb, and he 4bet to 20bb. What do you want to 5bet to that is not a shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody 4bet preflop, there was a cold caller to the initial open. Which is one reason why I shove here preflop, multi way flops with overpairs can suck sometimes.
  #13  
Old 11-24-2007, 01:51 PM
Chicago Twister Chicago Twister is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

Push preflop for crap sakes.
  #14  
Old 11-24-2007, 01:58 PM
Mike MacIntosh Mike MacIntosh is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could try 4betting, I don't see why you should go straight to 5 betting that's pretty weird, as played don't fold!

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 100bb, and he 4bet to 20bb. What do you want to 5bet to that is not a shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody 4bet preflop, there was a cold caller to the initial open. Which is one reason why I shove here preflop, multi way flops with overpairs can suck sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I did botch up the 4bet/5bet lingo...anyways u get my point.
  #15  
Old 11-24-2007, 02:01 PM
Mike MacIntosh Mike MacIntosh is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop for crap sakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

As stated in the OP I believe this will fold out JJ/AK like 90%+ of the time, and QQ will most likely fold at least 20% of the time. Which is the reason why I decided to call and get it in on a "safe" flop.
  #16  
Old 11-24-2007, 02:04 PM
Chicago Twister Chicago Twister is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

I believe you are incorrect sir.
  #17  
Old 11-24-2007, 02:32 PM
Mike MacIntosh Mike MacIntosh is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

In an attempt to shine some light on this situation, lefts make a few assumptions.

1. Villain is holding five hands (JJ+, AK).
2. The frequency of holding each hand will be derived from the # of combos remaining in the deck on the flop.
3. If we shove on the flop, villain will fold AK and call with JJ+.
4. For the sake of simplicity we will pretend villain folds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Which is obviously retarded. However it represents a small part of the equation.

AK = 8 combos
AA = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo
QQ = 6 combos
JJ = 3 combos

Total of 24 combos.

Here is the possibility of villain holding each hand.

AK = 8/24 = 33%
AA = 6/24 = 25%
KK = 1/24 = 4%
QQ = 6/24 = 25%
JJ = 3/24 = 13%

Here is the equity we have versus each hand he calls with on the flop.

AA = 12%
KK = 25% (note we would split the pot)
QQ = 90%
JJ = 15%

Combined equity against his calling range.

AA = 12% * 25% = 3%
KK = 25% * 4% = 1%
QQ = 90% * 25% = 22.5%
JJ = 15% * 13% = 2%

Our total equity against his calling range equals 28.5%.

Now we need to figure out how much FE we need to break even on a shove.

When we shove and...

He calls and we lose = -$80
He calls and we win = +$120
He folds = +80

FE Calculation

FE

= 80f + (1-f) [ .285(120) + .715(-80)]

f = 18%

We need 18% equity to break even on a shove. Villain will be folding AK 33% of the time. Therefore it is +EV to shove the flop under these conditions.

Conclusion

If we assume villain is looser than this example then shoving this flop is printing money.

Obviously if villain is tigther than this example shoving will cost us money in the long run.
  #18  
Old 11-24-2007, 02:40 PM
Chicago Twister Chicago Twister is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

All three of your assumptions are incorrect to a degree, but the assumption that AK will fold to a preflop push 100% of the time is especially lol. Opponent's don't behave in binary fashions.
  #19  
Old 11-24-2007, 02:59 PM
Mike MacIntosh Mike MacIntosh is offline
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Default Re: I can read souls...

[ QUOTE ]
All three of your assumptions are incorrect to a degree, but the assumption that AK will fold to a preflop push 100% of the time is especially lol. Opponent's don't behave in binary fashions.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are entitled to your opinion, and you obv. have some good points. I have done my best to show you the other side of the fence. I can't expect to magically change your thoughts on this situation.

I believe he shows up with AA/JJ more often than 37% of the time here, therefore I folded.

I agree in a vacuum folding this is a mistake in the long run. However it is a very close between shoving and folding given the set of circumstances in this hand.
  #20  
Old 11-24-2007, 03:00 PM
Diamond Lie Diamond Lie is offline
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Default No you cant

Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds
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