10NL strong villains, TP2K, check for pot control here?

[WantToLearn]

All right, this was NL10, but I daresay it was not a typical NL10 game going on there. The table average pot was 5BB, flop seen rate was ~20%. I was well aware that that is not the most juicy of games, but I stayed as I wanted to practise.

I have
<u>Reads</u>
I am under the impression that both villains know what they are doing. Especially, I do expect them to have a quality cold calling hand when they cold-call. As they don´t reraise, I guess they are set-mining here most of the time. The player in the big blind has recently made a big straightforward reraise when he had AA and there was a raise and a call before him. I also guess these guys won´t get stacked with something like top pair, weak kicker or so.

I am not sure about the turn play.
All comments are very welcome.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $10.05
BB: $23.10
UTG: $2.10
UTG+1: $19.60
MP1: $10.10
Hero (MP2): $10.75
CO: $11.10
BTN: $9.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.55) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.60</font>, CO calls $1.60, BB folds

Turn: ($4.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="purple">Hero ???</font>,

<font color="blue"> Now, if I bet again and the villain doesn´t fold, I guess he has something better than I have.

His flop call, however, might have been made with any cards he would call preflop, simply as I c-bet quite a lot.
So, if I check now, I leave myself wide open to bluffs, having no idea where I stand if he bets.

So I think my options are
bet-fold to a raise;
bet-see him call and start to think very hard (result unknown)
check-see him check - and then maybe bet river?
check-see him bet and maybe call, depending on bet size (I want to get away from the river if he gets very agressive then. By the way - block bet river?)

River play would be the next question in any case we both see the river.

Put in one word, I don´t want to commit myself against this specific villain. But I don´t want to give him an opportunity to bluff me out with hands that are behind.

So what do I do?</font>

Thank you very much.

[Larude]

For starters I think your bigger then normal raise preflop looks like you have a weak hand, so there calling range might in fact be broader then just sets (high cards, suited one gappers, suited connectors, maybe a big suited ace). On the flop I wouldn't bet as much as the pot, because this flop isn't scary at all except for some gutters. That J on the turn is not a good card for you; it gave QJ two pair, and opened more drawing possibilities for hands like 98, T8 and QT. The problem is you created a bigger pot by raising so much preflop and on the flop, which will make later bets also bigger with a vulnerable hand. I would probably take a bet/fold line here because it protects against draws and assuming villain is straightforward he will call with hands we beat at this moment except for AQ. So if the scare card then doesn't come on the river I am able to check/call a bet counting on the fact that it won't be a superstrong hand while he would have raised that on the turn...

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
For starters I think your bigger then normal raise preflop looks like you have a weak hand, so there calling range might in fact be broader then just sets (high cards, suited one gappers, suited connectors, maybe a big suited ace).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the average flop seen rate at the table was ~20% for a while, and that includes the small blind in unraised pots, as far as I know. BB is pretty tight for sure, CO seems to be pretty tight, I don´t think their calling range is that wide. It´s not the typical NL10 opponents we have here, at least not of the totaly unskilled kind. I am playing ~15/6 preflop and BB should know me well enough to know that (if not by a program and numbers, then by observing me), the other villain does not have a long history with me, but should have got an overall impression that comes close to the numbers. I don´t think any Q weaker than QJ or so would even be around and then call a turn bet too. These guys are considering what everybody else is doing.

It´s true that raising to like 0.4 preflop would change the game later!

[WantToLearn]

Oh yes, and the rather big flop bet was meant to tell them "I mean it, it´s not a cheap stab", trying to get a better idea of what they may hold, in case they should call. Like, risk a couple of BB more to establish an easier way out in case there is trouble.

[Larude]

Okey well you are playing tight and the might have noticed that, but the CO has position and you raised from MP2 so his range could contain a hand like QTs (to really establish that ain't so, we have to get some numbers). On the flop the idea of letting them know you are not trying to take a cheap stab is scared poker in a sense, because apparently you are afraid that they are going to trick you with a weaker hand if bet less??? I don't think your opponents behaviour will change a lot with the few cents more or less you bet into the pot, but it definitely can let the pot grow larger when you are WA/WB. I would bet around 1,10, which could just maybe induce him to stick around with a gutter or a middlepair. On the turn I would take a bet/fold line as explained already.

[ElectricWaffles]

My line would be this. PF I'd go for a raise of 30-45c, I'd not be doing that to steal blinds, it would be because I think my hand is not too bad and I'd like a call from one of the blinds. I think 50c is too much, you might take the blinds a little more often but if you do get a call it inflates the pot more than is nessecary. I'd rather keep the pot small and see what the flop brings, that's usually my preference with most of the hands I play aside from big pairs, of course this needs to be balanced with how many people I want in the pot, what kind of hands i'm looking to make on the flop etc etc etc

Were you betting 50c because you felt your hand was probably better than everyone elses, or was it to take the blinds?

Flop. I think I'd bet a bit less here, but not much less because the flop is pretty nice, you've TPGK and the board is fairly dry. I'd lead for around $1 - $1.30. If CO was a muppet then i'd be hoping to get a call from a worse hand, if he's good like you say I'd proceed cautiously if he called. If he makes a decent (not minraise) raise then i'll fold thinking i'm beat.

He could be calling to see if you're just CBetting (again) and you're way ahead or he's got something good and you're screwed. Eitherway i'd agree with what you said in your OP, if you check it makes it too easy for him to bluff you, so I think you need to bet. Not too much though because I'd consider it a feeler bet, I think it needs to be balanced between keeping it cheap for you and not looking weak. I'd bet about 1/2 pot on the turn. Thats quite expensive now, but I think that highlights the need to maybe bet less PF and on the flop. If raised/called then I think i'm beat and play accordingly (fold).

For the TLDR factor i'll condense below.

PF: Bet 30-45c
Flop: Bet 55-85% pot / Fold to raise
Turn: Bet 33%-50% pot / Fold to raise - shutdown after call

This may or may not be correct, it's what I'd do though =)

[WantToLearn]

CO is 16/10 over just 90 hands. As he only saw 10 Flops, no significant numbers here, but 1st indications are there that he might be aggressiv, plus he can fold.

Button is 13/3 over 500 hands. He cold-calls 8% of all raises. His flop AF is 2, if he sees turn and river he is quite passiv there.

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop the idea of letting them know you are not trying to take a cheap stab is scared poker in a sense, because apparently you are afraid that they are going to trick you with a weaker hand if bet less??? (...) I would bet around 1,10, which could just maybe induce him to stick around with a gutter or a middlepair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was afraid that he would bluff- or semibluff-raise if I made a bet of ~1,00. That would have let me with little information about his hand-strength, but with a decision wether or not to commit. I did not hope he would call with a gutshot or so. I must say I rather expected him to raise or to fold, and folding to his raising a significant flop bet seemed to be the cheapest way out, if behind.

Anyway, I bet the turn for ~3.2, he min-raised, and I folded.

I have figured out how the pot sizes change with a preflop-raise of only 1 BB less. It´s quite a lot.
It´s just 1 BB before the flop, but it makes a big deal!

[Larude]

Yeah WantoLearn I agree with the line you took on the turn, by the way I wouldn't fold the the flop against a raise, he might just be finding out where he stands; you have TPGK.

[Fiasco]

1) raise less preflop

2) bet the turn fold to raise

3) you can "practice" against bad players too. Try practicing better table selection.

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
by the way I wouldn't fold the the flop against a raise, he might just be finding out where he stands; you have TPGK.

[/ QUOTE ]

TPGK is not a hand that makes me feel comfortable if I commit with against this guy!

I start to understand why it is so important to have a rather small pot with TPGK, starting with a smaller preflop raise. That might be the real point here.

As played, I hate not folding to a raise on the flop.
See, say I bet 1,10 as you said you would. Now he raises to, say, 3, and I call (you don´t advertise reraising here, do you?). The pot is 7,55 and I have only 7,25 behind. (If the raise comes from the BB, not the CO, the pot is 7,55 with 6,3 effective stacks behind).
Now what? I agree - his raise might be a way to find out where he stands. I don´t know wether or not I am beat. But how can I find out without getting commited? check-call turn, fold river if bet again? Ouch. Bet again, fold to raise, check-fold river if turn is called? check-fold turn, if he bets turn?

Assuming that more often than not, he is going to raise my flop bet with a strong hand (there were some signs he´s aggressiv), I still like the pot sized flop bet better. Any raise and I am done with the hand against this guy.