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#23
09-13-2007, 09:54 AM
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Re: Got him in the middle
But you did "pooch" it on 6th. The CR was wide open, no way seat 4 is giving seat 8 a free card. PERFECT POSITION
Seat 4's hole cards can only be (K5) or (55), thus making trip Ks a possible hand. So in the "heat of battle" you think you played it badly on 5th, yet three other posters say they would call too. So what exactly is settled , other than you played 6th very poorly. And what is your opinion of your playing ability based on your 5th st call??? 
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#24
09-13-2007, 01:33 PM
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Re: Got him in the middle
[ QUOTE ]
But you did "pooch" it on 6th. The CR was wide open, no way seat 4 is giving seat 8 a free card. PERFECT POSITION Seat 4's hole cards can only be (K5) or (55), thus making trip Ks a possible hand. So in the "heat of battle" you think you played it badly on 5th, yet three other posters say they would call too. So what exactly is settled , other than you played 6th very poorly. And what is your opinion of your playing ability based on your 5th st call??? [/ QUOTE ] His post was about the hand up until 5th street. I doubt a decent player raised (55)K with a K and a 5 out. He read the hand for Ks up and bare Ks, and the play seems to prove that read right. I didn't think I'd have to explain this, but he is going to win this hand apprx. 48% of the time, getting 2-1 on his money. You seem to be confusing being 'ahead' in the hand with being a money fav. Elec was a big money fav on 5th, so more money should have gone in. Your questioning of his playing ability is a sad attempt to gain some kind of satisfaction from this thread. There is no need to make it personal. The thing about posted hands is that they are hopefully ones that invoke different opinions and discussions. In my responses I had lots of time to look things over and run different scenarios, Elec only had a few seconds. I stand by all my earlier posts, we are likely a big money fav on fifth, I raise every time. If you can make a compelling reason that a call is correct, I'd be glad to hear it, but I think that it has been clearly shown, IMHO, that a raise is the correct play. I think that this was a very interesting hand to post, and I enjoyed the discussion on it. 7
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#25
09-13-2007, 05:51 PM
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Re: Got him in the middle
Ok Sevenfold here it is.
If he played this hand properly, he is only risking 1 BB when he loses. And when he hits, as he did, up to 6 BBs. I'll take these odds every single time. A cheap fold and great odds. So when your 48% hits, you get at least 5 or 6 to 1 here, maybe more. And the 52%, you lose 1BB, and maybe a free showdown if a club hits on 6th. My way nets close to 200 BB over a hundred hands while your way nets ?. Maybe you can do the calculation assuming he caps 5th. But my rough math says; he's risking 3BB, which nets to a 156 BB loss (52 times 3BB)and a 288 BB profit (48 times 6BB)on the wins, netting a win of 132 BBs. A call has the greatest profit potential, but only if the hand is played properly via a CR. Expert stud players are thinking about a game plan for 6th and 7th when they make a 5th ST play, so both streets apply. Agreed a good player wouldn't play 55, but this is a high ante game and it makes sense with his agressive betting pattern. The question by the OP was about 5th being a BIG mistake. Maybe a slight error but not a BIG one. And he did call SEVENFOLD!!!! And the MILLION Question 7, is it a BIG mistake considering your following statement: "In my responses I had lots of time to look things over and run different scenarios, Elec only had a few seconds."
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#26
09-13-2007, 07:36 PM
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Re: Got him in the middle
I didn't want to risk having it check through on Six, and I figured to get two calls at a minimum, so I bet.
Having seen quite a bit of tenacity in a big pot, along with the reasonable presumption that I just made three Aces, there's very little incentive for seat 4 to bet, since he can't face seat 8 with two bets, and putting no bets in the pot on Six would be the worst possible mistake. By betting Six I got a guaranteed two bets of profit in the pot while a huge favorite, and if by chance seat 4 thinks Kings-up is good and raises me (or please baby Jesus let him have trip Fives), I can get as many as six or Eight BB profit in the pot when I take it to three-town and maybe it gets capped. Trying to get sexy on Sixth street would also let seat Eight fold and get off the hook, and cue a fold on the river from seat 4, sacrificing quite a bit of potential profit on the river. A c/r likely would have netted the same pot in this case, but it also risked letting them take a free card on Six, and I didn't want that to happen.
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#27
09-13-2007, 08:53 PM
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Re: Got him in the middle
You need to get a raise in with the best hand.
You're not going to be able to do it on 7th. You assume then: A) You improve exactly on 6th street. B) After going to war on 4th against a decent player, you improve on 6th, and try and get in a check-raise against a guy who's KK55 has to be looking not so good by now. A check round on 6th is a disaster if we're ahead, and I think if Elec. whacks an ace or a pair he is looking at just that. I'm not looking to save bets when I have a huge edge, I'm looking to get them in.
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#28
09-13-2007, 10:42 PM
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Re: Got him in the middle
CPA---Your following is interesting, but I don't think it is accurate. Cliff notes (were) at bottom (now kind of in middle).
QUOTE If he played this hand properly, he is only risking 1 BB when he loses. And when he hits, as he did, up to 6 BBs. I'll take these odds every single time. A cheap fold and great odds. So when your 48% hits, you get at least 5 or 6 to 1 here, maybe more. And the 52%, you lose 1BB, and maybe a free showdown if a club hits on 6th. My way nets close to 200 BB over a hundred hands while your way nets ?. Maybe you can do the calculation assuming he caps 5th. But my rough math says; he's risking 3BB, which nets to a 156 BB loss (52 times 3BB)and a 288 BB profit (48 times 6BB)on the wins, netting a win of 132 BBs-----------END QUOTE If we call 5th--- 7th doesn't change. 6th we don't improve so we have invested 1 bet to their 2. 6th we improve and check. If seat 4 checks we make zero extra bets on 5th and 6th, losing 4 bets. If seat 4 does bet, we check raise and pick up 4 bets on 6th. By not leading 6th you are risking 2 bets to pick up 4. You have to have seat 4 lead 50% of the time JUST TO BREAK EVEN by checking instead of leading. I don't think he does. Seat 4 has to wonder about us if we pop 5th. He has to start thinking set here. If we pop 5th, then miss and check 6th, I think we've got him doubtful enough that he checks behind a large % of the time. CLIFF NOTES: (Red loses bets, green plus) So: RAISING Raise 5th and improve gains 2 extra bets. <font color="green">PLUS 2 </font> Raise 5th and miss both 6th and 7th loses 1 extra bet---only if seat 4 bets 6th. ----- <font color="red">MINUS 1/2 </font> CALLING: Call 5th and miss 6th and 7th loses no extra bets. <font color="green">Plus 1/2 </font> Call 5th and improve river loses two bets. <font color="red">MINUS 2 </font> Call 5th improve 6th picks up two extra bets with a successful check raise. <font color="green">PLUS 2 </font> Call 5th and improve 6th, check around. <font color="red"> MINUS 4 </font> We figure to improve our hand roughly half the time. Soooooo....Deep breath now all...Lets wrap up the math RAISING: BY Raising instead of calling 5th we lose (about) 1/2 a bet the half we miss. The half we make: Raising wins 2 bets. <font color="green">RAISING NETS 1 1/2 bets </font> CALLING (and going for check raise): For simplicity sake lets say of the times we improve half the time on 6th and half the time on the river. Improve 7th loses two bets. Improve 6th and get in check raise nets two bets. Improve 6th and check around loses 4 bets. So add up the A) 50% we improve 7th -2 B) 25% improve checkraise +2 C) 25% improve check around -4. So A) -2 -2 = -4 (Happens twice as often as the other two). plus B) +2 for -2, minus c) -4 brings us to -6. Minus 6 divided by four equals -1 1/2. -1 1/2 bets plus the 1/2 we save when missing = minus 1 bet. In the above I have seat 4 betting half the time we improve, I think less, you could argue more... <font color="red">CALLING LOSES 1 BET </font> <font color="green">RAISING OVER CALLING NETS 2 1/2 BETS PER TRIAL </font> <font color="green"> <font color="black">(Math done quickly, can't swear to accuracy, but even if off a little, principle stays the same.) </font> 7
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#29
09-14-2007, 01:48 PM
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Re: Got him in the middle
“If we call 5th---
7th doesn't change.” A.) AGREE, bet if we improve, check/fold if we don’t. ”6th we don't improve so we have invested 1 bet to their 2”. B.)AGREE, except we could get a free card if a drawing card comes our way thereby making our investment $0 and if this happens, it very good chance we’re getting a free showdown too. ”6th we improve and check. If seat 4 checks we make zero extra bets on 5th and 6th, losing 4 bets. If seat 4 does bet, we check raise and pick up 4 bets on 6th. By not leading 6th you are risking 2 bets to pick up 4. You have to have seat 4 lead 50% of the time JUST TO BREAK EVEN by checking instead of leading. I don't think he does.” C.) DISAGREE, after capping 4th and raising HERO on 5th, seemingly inviting a cap again, Seat 4 focus is on seat 8 and his KINGs. No way on God’s earth he gives a free card to seat 8 here, especially since he has a dead hand. Seat 8 provides the profit here, make him pay. And seat 4 may think Hero could fold too. Giving free cards in poker is the biggest single mistake a player can make. Why give two players free cards, much less one. Bad players make this mistake all the time, and seat 4 is a solid stud player. And solid players give opponents a chance to fold, especially players with a dead hand (KK6). Your reasoning is so WEAK, its just plain bad poker to give free cards. ”Seat 4 has to wonder about us if we pop 5th. He has to start thinking set here. If we pop 5th, then miss and check 6th, I think we've got him doubtful enough that he checks behind a large % of the time.” D.)DISAGREE, it didn’t seem to slow him down on 5th, after Hero raised twice during the 4th street cap. Funny you bring up “set” here, (but a set of 5s is not possible in your EV range). You mean to tell me that HERO would Cap 4th with wired 8s or 3s, to the hands that have Kings. NO WAY and seat 8, a solid player, knows this. Seat 4 is making seat 8 pay, and he’s more than happy to split the profits with HERO. THINKING SET, Now that’s hilarious. What the “case” 6s. E.)So my likely investment is 1BB (a sixth street bet), maybe less if I catch a scary drawing card. And your investment is 3BB, a cap on 5th and a sixth street bet. So over a 100 hands, my investment is 52BB and yours is 156BB. This is what we need to cover our losses, 52% of the time. This assumes your EV is 48%, which I think is lower because of the possibility of 55 and the Ace of spades for seat 8. In which case both investments would go up to say 60BB and 180 BB, This is a more realistic average EV range over a hundred hands, but I will use your 48% in my calculations. ”CLIFF NOTES: (Red loses bets, green plus) So: RAISING Raise 5th and improve gains 2 extra bets. PLUS 2 “ F.)As in, Investment 3BB (5th st cap plus 6th bet), WIN 7BB(4 on 5th, 2 on 6 and, say, 1 call on the river); Profit 4BB, maybe 5BB if both call (So over 100 hands this nets to a profit of (336 BB minus 156 BB) of 180 BB, and maybe 228 BB, if he gets 2 calls on the river. Math: 48 times 7BB = 336; 52 times 3BB = 156 Profit 336-156 = 180 ”Raise 5th and miss both 6th and 7th loses 1 extra bet---only if seat 4 bets 6th. ----- MINUS ½” G.)As in, Investment 3BB (5th st cap plus 6th bet) as noted above ”CALLING: Call 5th and miss 6th and 7th loses no extra bets. Plus ½” H.)No free cards, seat 4 is betting 6th, this is our 1 BB investment maybe less if we catch a scary drawing card on 6th. Call 5th and improve river loses two bets. MINUS 2 I.)Investment 1BB (6th street bet) WIN 3BB maybe 4 if both call river. Profit = 2–3 BBs and over 100 hands it’s a plus 96 BB to 144BB (48 times 2 or 3) Call 5th improve 6th picks up two extra bets with a successful check raise. PLUS 2 J.)As in, Investment 1BB ( 6th st bet), WIN 5BB(4 on 6th and seat 4 calls river); Profit 4BB, maybe 5BB if both call (So over 100 hands this nets to profit of (240 BB minus 56 BB) of 196 BB, and maybe 240 BB, if he gets 2 calls on the river. Math: 48 times 5BB = 240; 52 times 1BB = 52 Profit 240-56 = 196 Call 5th and improve 6th, check around. MINUS 4 K.)Seat 4 is betting, no free cards and both players might fold here. Give them a chance to fold. RAISING: BY Raising instead of calling 5th we lose (about) 1/2 a bet the half we miss. The half we make: Raising wins 2 bets. RAISING NETS 1 1/2 bets Conclusion) Now lets compare: Raising and a 5th st cap = 180 BB Raising W/O a 5th st cap = 132 BB Calling, assuming 50/50 on the street catch (196 BB or 96BB = 146 BB average) Thus the “CAP” nets 34BB over 100 hands which equals $2.04/100 = $2.04 per hand. This hand generated a pot of about $120 to $150. So the $2.04 represents about 1% to 2% of the total pot.; and "without the CAP” the CALL nets 14BB which equals $.84/100 or .84 per hand. Your 2½ bets = $15.00, I guess this is due to the 50/50 CR risk you are assuming. HERO is in perfect position for this, especially catching an off suit ACE. It appears as if your entire, "Its a BIG mistake theroy", is based on Seat 4 making the biggest mistake in poker. And that is, giving free cards to a dead hand(KK6). Seat 4 will give both players a chance to fold here. And if “thinking set” is the basis of this assumption, I find it hard to believe that “thinking set” (the case 6s) is OK for 6th street but not Ok for your 5th street EV. If you used a realistic average EV, it swings even more to the 5th street call. And please convert your math (plus and Minus) to poker lingo, such as BBs and $ amounts. Much easier to follow. Thank you for your effort, because no one on the forum ever completes the Math, or shall we say profit. Its usually just the must favorable EV, and BAM off we go. Again a “CALL” is not a BIG mistake. Thank you, you're making a great effort. And if I'm wrong, a heartfelt Thank You, for making me a better player.
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