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#71
10-17-2007, 02:22 AM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Post Oak [ QUOTE ] I was also proven to be correct regarding the DRays. [/ QUOTE ] Results oriented thinking at its finest. As you were... [/ QUOTE ] No, you are wrong. Don't worry, nearly everyone on this board seems to not understand the odds as relates to a 162 game baseball season. Read the thread Thremp is referring to, and you will learn a lot. For example, if the DRays were to have a 3% chance to win the AL East, they would have to be considered at least a .500 team. What are the chances a .500 team would only win 66 games (or less)? Only 1%. Let's say we had access to a time machine... Would you be stupid enough to bet the DRays to win the AL East at only 35 to 1? Remember, ImStillBen claimed that 3% was actually a conservative estimate. Nice try, but we weren't talking about a 5 game series, or a solitary football game or something. We were talking about a 66-96, atrocious baseball team. As you were... [/ QUOTE ] with the actual PT of TBY, their projected wins would have been 81. they lost like 150 runs in the field. who knew? 
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#72
10-17-2007, 10:57 AM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
[ QUOTE ]
The bet you are offering does not match what I said. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I thought it did. It's fine that we don't agree. I was clearly talking about final 2 weeks, as I anyone can see in black and white below: 'at 14-0, if #1 seed is a lock, I will happily bet that major NWE players skip more than 1 Q of action.' You said: [ QUOTE ] If they are undefeated, Brady ...gonna play until the game is over - meaning for 2-3 quarters [/ QUOTE ] I said in response: 'I'll take the Under on Brady plays combined 4.5 Qs last 2 games if they have clinched #1 seed.' I still maintain, *if* you think 4-6 Qs is the range for last 2 games, then Over 4.5 quarters/67.5 mins is a huge huge bargain. You replied: [ QUOTE ] I will accept your bet if you don't require it to be Weeks 16 and 17 [/ QUOTE ] But I already said initially, if NWE was 14-0. Don't confuse that statement with anyone else's. Then you wrongfully implied: [ QUOTE ] 1. although Naj's claims would lead to an O/U of 2.5, [/ QUOTE ] where you are clearly confusing AT LEAST 1 Qtr I said Brady would miss after 14-0 start, with something else entirely. If we feel similarly on NWE actions and have cleared this up, then we agree. Yay! [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
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#73
10-17-2007, 11:01 AM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Utah you seriously laid -1600 on that New England prop? By my estimates, that prop is worth $23 when factoring in the correct line and comparing it to a risk-free investment of 5%. Hardly seems worth it, considering the team looks unbeatable at this point. [/ QUOTE ] Where can you get 5% risk free over a couple of months? [/ QUOTE ] Many bank accounts still offer 5%. [/ QUOTE ] Not for 3 months, are you kidding? Pls show me. That's >20% you're saying banks are guaranteeing. LOL.
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#74
10-17-2007, 12:11 PM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
[ QUOTE ]
who knew? [/ QUOTE ] Las Vegas? Every other projection system? Every sportswriter in the country? Me? Let me give you and Hedgie a hint - don't put all of your faith into any projection system which is 10 games off of the Vegas line, every other projection system, and "expert" consensus. Hypothesis 1: TB is a near .500 team. This is supported by BP's PECOTA/Monte Carlo projection Hypothesis 2: TB is a <70 win team. This is supported by the Las Vegas line, every other known projection system/Monte Carlo sim and expert consensus Test results: TB wins 66 games. Their Pythagorean record is also 66-96. Your conclusion: I must have gotten incredibly unlucky! No one could have foreseen this!
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#75
10-17-2007, 12:22 PM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
My ETrade Bank Account Money Market pays over 5% annually.
If you bet $1000 that the Pats will not go undefeated at -1600 and you win (which I don't consider a sure thing) then you will win $62.50 on your $1000 bet. A return of 6.25% over a time period of approximately 16 weeks which would translate into almost 20% annually. (I did all this without a calculator, so please don't jump all over me for approximations or small math errors.)
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#76
10-17-2007, 12:49 PM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
Alright, this is a direct quote:
[ QUOTE ] at 14-0, if #1 seed is a lock, I will happily bet that major NWE players skip more than 1 Q of action. edit: And Brady at least a half. [/ QUOTE ] OK, let's make that bet concerning Brady. If they are 14-0, you say Brady will sit for AT LEAST a half. If Brady plays after halftime, you lose the bet. If he plays only the first half, it is a push. If he is benched before the half, you win. That should be simple enough. I don't even think we need to add any conditions. If NE is 14-0, then this game is gonna be Miami @ NE -28, or some absurd number like that. I take the risk it is 35-0 at the half (for either team [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), and you take the risk that Brady comes in after the half for some fluke reason, or for one series or something. Our viewpoints are actually pretty close, but are not the same. It is Thremp who is way out there, thinking that NE will bench starters as soon as they clinch HFA. It seems you now agree that simply wouldn't happen, as it didn't with the only two past NFL teams who met that criteria. Anyway, while we are close, we still have some small disagreements. I am willing to take your offered wager of a 14-0 Brady missing AT LEAST a half.
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#77
10-17-2007, 01:00 PM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Utah you seriously laid -1600 on that New England prop? By my estimates, that prop is worth $23 when factoring in the correct line and comparing it to a risk-free investment of 5%. Hardly seems worth it, considering the team looks unbeatable at this point. [/ QUOTE ] Where can you get 5% risk free over a couple of months? [/ QUOTE ] Many bank accounts still offer 5%. [/ QUOTE ] Not for 3 months, are you kidding? Pls show me. That's >20% you're saying banks are guaranteeing. LOL. [/ QUOTE ] 5% APY you goof
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#78
10-17-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
maybe some equity in it, but why tie up capital for a future that is 3 months out? You have to figure in the ROI for that money over that time, that alone could make it -EV depending on what your ROI is.
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#80
10-17-2007, 02:25 PM
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Re: NFL undefeated season prop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Utah you seriously laid -1600 on that New England prop? By my estimates, that prop is worth $23 when factoring in the correct line and comparing it to a risk-free investment of 5%. Hardly seems worth it, considering the team looks unbeatable at this point. [/ QUOTE ] Where can you get 5% risk free over a couple of months? [/ QUOTE ] Many bank accounts still offer 5%. [/ QUOTE ] Not for 3 months, are you kidding? Pls show me. That's >20% you're saying banks are guaranteeing. LOL. [/ QUOTE ] 5% APY you goof [/ QUOTE ] You are slow. 20% IRR >>>> 5% IRR. DUCY?
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