Paperchamp's NFL Week 4

[paperchamp]

Houston Texans -2.5 @ Atlanta Falcons (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

I think that the Texans are closer to a touchdown better than the Falcons on a neutral field.

YTD (pending a possible play on MNF tonight)

3-5-1
-4.9u

[paperchamp]

Added play:

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers +2 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

[Jazzy3113]

paper i jumped at the -2.5 for houston as well. In fact it looked like such a good line to me I am now thinking I missing something obvious.

However, your SF bet makes no sense to me. Why not buy a point to +3 or even better take San Fran ML. What value does +2 give you at all?

[paperchamp]

There wasn't a ML available yet when I made the pick. I see TheGreek has +110 now. That's pretty comparable to the +2.5 I got at skybook. Of course I don't include the free half point in my public record for obvious reasons.

[David BB]

Houston does have some injuries. I still like them though. Got them at -3 +108.

[psuasskicker]

I have Hou -3 as well even with the injuries. ATL is just awful. Awful blown lead vs. Carolina.

I like SF as well but feel like the public money will push the line more than +2.

- C -

[Jazzy3113]

Theres a sweet tease available for Indy and SF. Its wongable I believe, but I'm hesistant on the niners.

[paperchamp]

I think this line is definitely over compensating for injuries.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
There wasn't a ML available yet when I made the pick. I see TheGreek has +110 now. That's pretty comparable to the +2.5 I got at skybook. Of course I don't include the free half point in my public record for obvious reasons .

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? You have legitimately gotten a better line by shopping and will win or lose based on that.

I kinda like Atlanta in this game myself. In addition to Houston's injuries I think they are getting a little too much respect from the linemakers right now. Atlanta is by no means good but they outgained Carolina by a decent margin yesterday and might very well have won the game if DeAngelo Hall didn't have a meltdown(67 yds in penalties on one drive). If you had capped this game coming into the season the Falcons would have been favored by 2-3 points. Are these teams really that different now?

[Lori]

I like the SF pick a lot, although I haven't gone through it enough to bet it yet.

Not so keen on the HOU line, ATL passed very well this week and HOU's pass defense seems to be a potential weakness.

I also have the feeling that HOU are going to be a huge BSP pick this week, and that always puts me off.

Edit: I'm wondering if you think HOU are just going to carve up ATL, if so I might take the overs.

Lori