Houston Texans +11 @ New England Patriots

[paperchamp]

Does anyone else find this appealing because of all the injuries for New England? I'm always a little wary betting on the Texans, thoughts?

[rjp]

I'm not sure what Houston's playing for. NE has injuries, but there are plenty of other weapons.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what Houston's playing for. NE has injuries, but there are plenty of other weapons.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only motivation I see for the Texans is that all week the talk of the media in Houston has been all about VY and how badly the Texans botched the draft. However, they were terrible last year playing out the stretch (hence the first pick).

[MacGuyV]

I think this is going to get ugly. I know a lot of people here think the "coming off a loss" factor is overrated, but I really don't think it is with this team. I expect a big 1st half for Brady and a big 2nd half from the running game against a bad defense; Houston is lucky to score 10+ points.
5-0 picking NE games so far this yr fwiw.

[dreamcrusha]

I think a better bet is the under in this game.

[dankhank]

i'm looking at the under because it looks like it will be awful windy in foxboro. any other reason you are seeing?

[Dusty Baker]

1st half parlay of +7 and under 19.5 looks nice.

[dankhank]

seems like it's much better to take the total for the game under 38, since it dodges key number 37, versus a total of 19.5 which barely misses key numbers on the wrong side.

still not sure under is a good play though

[Dusty Baker]

The first half correlates much better, doesn't it? I've never known how much to take key numbers into account when betting like this though. Ignoring those, +11/u38 should be about break even.

[dankhank]

why would the first half correlate better? i am bad at math so i probably miss some key concepts when it comes to numbers. but if you say that parlay is breakeven, then i guess the +12/u38.5 i did is even more likely okay.