calculate reverse implied odds

bozzer · #1 10-30-2007, 10:52 AM

is there a way of calculating the reverse implied odds I am getting given certain assumptions, in the same way i might estimate my implied odds?

eg. NLHE board is 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I've got JJ OOP, cbet and got called and checked and am facing a $7 bet into a $10 pot. how would I go about calculating the RIO I am facing here?

tarheeljks · #2 10-30-2007, 12:12 PM

it's a hassle to calculate rio in nl b/c you don't know how much your opponent is going to bet. anyway you would do it by taking their bet size (on this street and future streets) and compare it to the current pot size. it's more important just to recognize that you are in an rio scenario.

anyway, you shouldn't be concerned about rio here. there are weaker hands that may given you action-- lower sets, Ax (esp Ax of hearts). rio applies more when you hold hands like middle pair and may be facing overs.

RustyBrooks · #3 10-30-2007, 12:39 PM

The sweet thing about no limit is you can solve the reverse implied odds problem by raising his ass right here.

If he has something like AhXh you're a 4:1 favorite. If he has something like AA you're a 30:1 dog. Unless you think he has AA you should make a sizeable raise here. Edit: If you think his range is something like QQ+, AhTh+ then you're a 3:1 favorite. Honestly I have no idea what your opponent's range is but you have everything crushed except AA so any range wider than what I have above, you're a bigger favorite than 3:1.

Reverse implied odds is the idea that if your opponent does not improve, he won't pay you off, but if he improves to beat you, you'll have to pay him off. Actually I think most opponents are going to call you on the river with a pair of aces if they have AhXh. Anyway, if you can get the money in now, you don't have to worry about whether he'll pay you off if he misses.

bozzer · #4 10-30-2007, 01:19 PM

whoops i didn't mean to give myself a set! say i have JJ on 37TA board....

i'm really talking about trying to quantify the situation where if you call a bet now you may also have to call a river bet where you are less likely to win the hand than currently but still have to call it given the pot odds.

Vetgirig · #5 10-30-2007, 03:58 PM

If villan bets river you should fold JJ. So no its not a good example. The problem with reverse implied odds is that one nearly never knows exactly how big it will be. Its the same problem as for implied odds. One never know exactly how much one can get payed off on the river.

In FL this is easier to calculate.

bozzer · #6 10-31-2007, 09:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If villan bets river you should fold JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

what makes you say this??

guys please ignore the example if it's not helpful or is side tracking you (hint: it is).

is there no way to flip the logic of implied odds round and say 'here's what i expect to lose on future betting so i need these odds now'?

RustyBrooks · #7 10-31-2007, 12:37 PM

Only if you can estimate how much the guy will bet if he makes his hand, or how much he'll call if he doesn't.

_D&L_ · #8 10-31-2007, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
is there a way of calculating the reverse implied odds I am getting given certain assumptions, in the same way i might estimate my implied odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, its not possible to define Reverse Implied Odds with a simple, or even complex equation.

Here's why. To have Reverse Implied Odds you need to be UNCERTAIN about the hand your opponent is holding. If you were certain, he couldn't capitalize on reverse implied odds when his hand hits. If your certain about his hand, and he hits, he won't be able to even get 1 red cent more out of you.

Because you are uncertain as to his hand, you are now figuring out how your opponent will respond to a bet given a range of hands. This means we need to define his distribution.

Also, at the very least you would need to define his fold % for any given raise. This is not something that can be written in to an equation.

There are other things we would have to know too. But just know that reverse implied odds arises out of uncertainty, and that each case of uncertainty is different - therefore no one-size-fits-all equation will capture that uncertainty.

I'm not saying it can't be calculated. I have a general function that can calculate it, but you have to give it lots of inputs. No one-size-fits all equation will suffice.

Moreover, the best you can calculate is the game theory outcome. The reverse implied odds on exploitable opponents will obviously be different.

If you want me to make a bunch of simplyfing assumptions about the distribution our opponent is on, I can previde you an example of how one would go about calculating Reverse implied odds - if your still interested....

One final note. I said I can calculate game theories reverse implied odds. But this assumes both you and your opponent play optimally. If our hero plays as a call station, then our opponents reverse implied odds could very well be capped only by some sizeable fraction of your stack size. My point is, reverse implied odds depend on your strategy, as well as your opponents.

----_Dirty&Litigious_----