30-60 Bellagio hand

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
why on god's green earth would u CK this RIVER? this is an insta bet.....because he actually has Ac or Kc in his hand, he is making a larger mistake by not betting it than you are by simply CK'ing behind....

[/ QUOTE ]

[ackid]

I fold preflop.

As played bet river.

[rsk111]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Eh, I don't know. The way the game used to play I agree with the 3 bet preflop, but the way it plays now I would muck it until I get further information.

Turn: I think you need to think of hands that a player you don't have a read on and who doesn't have a read on you would fold to a turn raise after 4 betting preflop and leading every street. I would say close to 0.

River: Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Your turn analysis was helpful.

[MitchL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn raise is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I've got an OESD + Flush draw. Seems like a good spot for a semibluff. I certainly could be wrong though. Can you explain your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for not being more specific. Drbk said it well. This guy 4 bet pf and has bet at every opportunity on a scary board. He is never folding.

[surfdoc]

Preflop is pretty close so I don't really care if you 3 bet or fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.019% 44.72% 06.30% 753501864 106128984.00 { 99+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 48.981% 42.68% 06.30% 719147304 106128984.00 { AQo }

If you tighten the UTG raise a bit you are in very bad shape:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.410% 52.10% 09.31% 545942724 97592574.00 { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 38.590% 29.28% 09.31% 306802176 97592574.00 { AQo }



Flop play is standard

Turn: Bad idea. You are never getting a fold here. Even the one hand you hope he has (AKo with no club) is still likely to see the river and you will have to barrel off. Similarly, you have basically no showdown value against his range so you will feel obligated to fire one more shell on the river if you miss. Lastly, if you get 3 bet on this tutn you will have to call. This could be actually a good learning tool since you will feel so gross and hate yourself so much you should never make that mistake again.

River: bet and make him cry call with whatever. If you get checkraised then you have the easist fold ever. For those who are saying call, you really need to lay off the dope. Do you really think he is checkraising the 9c? All the guys capable of river CR bluffs here with two red aces are sitting in the 100/200 game already.

[smurfitup]

the flop play was expert.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/call. I'd usually fold AQo to an UTG raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. After a UTG raise it would have to be folded to me all the way to the cut off before I 3 bet.

I might raise this flop. It may give you more fold equity on the turn or possibly a free card.

I think I bet the river. He would bet if he had the Ace. He probably put us on a made flush on the turn. We can probably bet the river and not fear being raised if we think there is a good chance that he would call with a pair that did not include A or K of clubs. I think AA, KK, and AJ all might call with or without the big club, as well as QQ, JJ,TT, and 99. He may have even open raised with KQ suited, which has made a straight and might call and can't be clubs.

I see one AA hand, three KK hands, and two AJ hands that we beat.

There is one AA hand, three KK hands, and one AJ hand that beat us.

Some people also raise UTG with AT suited. If he has this he may call also.

There are many more possible calling hands that we beat than beat us, if we assume he would have bet with the ace of clubs.

[rsk111]

[ QUOTE ]
the flop play was expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not, but it does raise a question that I've been thinking about (that only few have addressed). What are the merits of flop raise vs. flop call on this hand?

[AragornX151]

[ QUOTE ]
Me too. After a UTG raise it would have to be folded to me all the way to the cut off before I 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. Honestly, just folding AQo in that spot against most players isn't really losing much value. Obviously, if he's a very loose opener (of which I played several), it's an easy 3-bet in HJ or CO. 3-betting a loose raiser UTG+1 isn't terrible, but I'd need a real read to do it. In this instance, I think it's a definite fold.

The turn is a prototypical free card spot. Betting isn't HORRENDOUS, given how many outs you might have, but I think it's clearly inferior to checking because you're forced to call a c/r having no idea which, if any, outs are clean.

[rsk111]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Me too. After a UTG raise it would have to be folded to me all the way to the cut off before I 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. Honestly, just folding AQo in that spot against most players isn't really losing much value. Obviously, if he's a very loose opener (of which I played several), it's an easy 3-bet in HJ or CO. 3-betting a loose raiser UTG+1 isn't terrible, but I'd need a real read to do it. In this instance, I think it's a definite fold.

The turn is a prototypical free card spot. Betting isn't HORRENDOUS, given how many outs you might have, but I think it's clearly inferior to checking because you're forced to call a c/r having no idea which, if any, outs are clean.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking regarding the preflop play was based on the fact that the session I had played the night before was quite loose. It was common to see early position raises with hands like KQ, KJ, AT, KT, and even QJ. During the other sessions I had there the play was somewhat tighter, but not much.