odds on turn card or odds on turn and river combined?

[ooloth]

when considering my chances after the flop and deciding whether or not to call, based on pot odds, should I think in terms of my odds of making my hand on the turn card, or on the turn and river combined?

for example, say I flop a gutshot straight draw to the nuts and I have no other outs. With 4 outs, my odds are 5.1 to 1 to make my hand by the river, so I figure I can call on the flop with pot odds 5.1 to 1 or better. On the turn, my odds of catching one of those outs becomes 10.5 to 1, so my pot odds will have to improve as well.

BUT, in their great book "Small Stakes Hold'em", Sklansky, Malmuth and Miller mention this situation and say that you would need pot odds of at least 10 to 1 to consider calling with 4 outs on the flop, because those are your odds of making your hand on the turn. I assume that these guys are correct, but I don't understand why you would want to think of your odds for just the turn card. Can somebody explain?

[Aaron_C]

unless you have strong reason to believe you wont be bet into again only look at your odds to make by the next card.

[JaredL]

Welcome to the forums.

You have to consider what actions both you and your opponent will take in the future.

As you said "On the turn, my odds of catching one of those outs becomes 10.5 to 1, so my pot odds will have to improve as well." This is the key. On the turn your opponent will most likely bet, and for the reason you mention in that quoted sentence, you will be folding if you miss. As a result you won't get to see the river should you miss on the turn, so it doesn't make sense to use the river card as part of your flop analysis.

Jared

[ooloth]

so does this mean that for pot equity, you consider your chances of making your hand by the river, but for pot/implied odds you only look at your odds of making your hand on the NEXT card? Or does pot equity only consider the next card as well? For example, what does it matter that you have a 35% chance to make your flush draw by the river if you are only ever looking one card ahead? Thanks for being patient with me here!

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
For example, what does it matter that you have a 35% chance to make your flush draw by the river if you are only ever looking one card ahead?

[/ QUOTE ]

It only really matters if you plan to go all-in on the flop in an NL game.

Otherwise, just consider the probability of making your hand on the next card. You can't look past the turn without re-analyzing the new price you will pay to see the river. It's probably possible to do the math for flop to river, but it is likely so complicated that you should only really be looking at flop-to-turn odds, and then turn-to-river odds (which are very close to identical to each other).

[ooloth]

thanks, everybody, you probably just saved me a lot of wasted money. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JaredL]

I haven't read SSHE in awhile but I think pot equity refers to the hand going to showdown so it would include the river card.

Even if you don't see the river pot equity is important. The reason is that when you fold you are giving away your equity. If you correctly fold that means that the cost of getting to the river is greater than the benefit of seeing it (ie your pot equity) when you consider the current bet you're facing and future action.

So in short you should consider the action on the turn and fold these really weak draws if you aren't getting sufficient odds on the turn alone (keep implied odds in mind though). When you do you give up your pot equity but that's ok since it's smaller than the cost of calling on the flop and then the turn if that's what you expect to happen.

Jared