Trips on Flop - Turn str8 scare card

[abscr]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Omaha Queen - Assuming Villain has the Broadway (ace high straight) and a re-draw to a spade flush, here's the math:
$82*10/44+$41*3/44-$26*31/44 =
+$18.64+$2.80-$18.32 = +$3.12


[/ QUOTE ]

Why isn't it 82*10/42 + ((1/4)*(3/42) + (3/4)*(2/42)) - 26*29/42 ?

If we are assuming he has TQxx with a flush draw, can we not remove those from the deck, while taking into account the odds of having the Qs?

[getitfixed]

I think you need to raise here more times than not PF. You have a decent hand, can narrow the field and have position As played, I think a C/C-Shove by BB here is broadway more often than not...that being said, I snap call 90% here.

Congrats on the "Queen" handle!

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If we are assuming he has TQxx with a flush draw, can we not remove those from the deck, while taking into account the odds of having the Qs?

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks, abscr, makes good sense to me.

Instead of<ul type="square"> $82*10/44+$41*3/44-$26*31/44 =
+$18.64+$2.80-$18.32 = +$3.12[/list]make it<ul type="square">$82*10/42+$41*3/42-$26*29/42 =
+$19.52+$2.93-$17.95 = +$4.50[/list]I should point our that there is some possibility of Villain having a pair of aces, and some other possibilities as well, that reduce this final number somewhat. Then again, we're not absolutely certain Villain has the Broadway, which increases this final number somewhat - although it surely looks like Villain has the Broadway - and it also surely looks like Villain doesn't have aces.

At any rate, the number is only a rough approximation to give us an idea if a call has positive e.v. (And indeed it does).

I thought if anyone challenged the math it might be on a different basis. But I like your improvement.

Thanks for the correction.

Buzz

[DonCologne]

Buzz your calculation is wrong. Hero wins only 46.95$ (Hero has only 16.95$ left and so he plays to win the 30$ in the pot and villains 16,95$) if he scoops and if he ties it is only 15$ (Hero plays only for half of the money in the pot before the turn bet).

The play is +EV, but only because hero has not much more than a half potsize bet left:

46.95$*10/42 + 15$*3/42 - 16.95$*29/42 = 11,17$ + 1,07$ - 11,7$ = 0,54$