The final truth about down swings.

[sandsmarc]

I seriously do not believe in downswings. At least, not in no-limit hold'em. You don't need the best cards to win if you know how to play. You can take many pots down with 3-2 if your timing and reads are expert.

Perhaps in low level limit games you can have a bad run. Because skill is really not all that important.

But if balls and reads count for anything, as they do in NL and PL, temporary bad cards only slow you down, they do not stop you.

[6471849653]

When one starts playing (somewhere) one is unlikely to hit bigger losing streaks. The longer one plays (weeks, months) the more likely one is to hit bigger losing streaks. The reason is that the happenings are like on a map where there are losing spots and the longer one has been playing the more likely it is to hit many of those losing spots, and finally the year will come when one can bust even a 1000 big bets bankroll, and that's why most top players have been broke at some point.

Psychologically it's difficult to keep playing when one is on a big losing streak, but playing them through is the only way to get over them. When one is on such a streak, it will just continue and one knows it from the past that the luck will now be bad and one will keep losing (just maybe breaking even if it's a really good game). That's in my opinion the hardest part of poker.

[canada_dry]

[ QUOTE ]
I seriously do not believe in downswings. At least, not in no-limit hold'em. You don't need the best cards to win if you know how to play. You can take many pots down with 3-2 if your timing and reads are expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you call it when:

You lose your stack when your set gets cracked by a flush.
When your AA loses to KK,
then again when your Top Two loses to a set,
then again when your OEFD with two overs, misses completely,
then again when your "well intentioned bluff" gets called
then again when your ....

This happens buddy, and its called a "Downswing".

Believe it.

[sandsmarc]

All you are talking about is cards. I'm talking about reads and bluffs. If your reads are good, your bluffs will work. Not always but more than enough. If they are bad, you will find yourself getting called.

Good players don't make many bad reads and don't have long downswings.

[_TKO_]

If you play a low-variance style, you will have fewer downswings. You will also win less.

[holyfield5]

[ QUOTE ]
I seriously do not believe in downswings. At least, not in no-limit hold'em. You don't need the best cards to win if you know how to play. You can take many pots down with 3-2 if your timing and reads are expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

overaggro

yes its true, you can overbet constantly and steal pots but THAT is not winning strategy and you wont be a long run winner and you will have even worse variance. deciding to play 3-2 preflop KNOWING the only way to win is to ferociously pursue getting opponent to fold has nothing to do with reads, its just hoping he doesnt have the nuts or close....but it wont work for very long. this wont get you out of a downswing.

[MoreGentilythanU]

I'm on downswing all in with ak<33
all in with q9<q6 on q96 board.

I HATE LOSING MYEYEYMYEYAUAYAYDFLK NO WOO NO WWOT NO WOOT

[sandsmarc]

You misunderstand. I'm not advocating playing bad cards and pushing them late in the hand. I'm talking about, for instance, pushing someone off second pair with unimproved overcards after they just had a beat. They are psychologically ready to be folded out of the hand. In other words, playing your normal decent cards but playing them expertly for value even when they are unimproved. Just one minor example of play that overcomes "bad cards". There are thousands of situations like this where good players overcome being card dead. Again, much more effective in NL-PL.

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
You misunderstand. I'm not advocating playing bad cards and pushing them late in the hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should consider that the misunderstanding may be yours. Sure, all of the things you talk about are part of a strong NL strategy, but there are few certainties in the game: you put your money in when you have the best of it, either because of your cards or because of your fold equity, and even when you have judged these things perfectly, things may not turn out the way you would like. Thus, downswings.

How many hands do you play a month, just out of interest?

[mike l.]

yep. this pretty much says it. breaks are important for most temperaments. i wouldnt have been able to go on the sick playing good running good rush ive been on for the past 2 years if i hadnt taken the nice 8 week break i had that proceeded it, and all the little breaks in between.