NL50: b/f or c/c or c/f river?

[Mr_Pathetic]

this hand was against a pretty big fish. i could see him playing AK,AJ,A9,AQ,99 like this. So with that said do you push river as pot is large already or do you c/c or do you c/f? all we have is a $30 left behind and all he can call us with is $25 so less then a half pot bet left on river. i don't think he can put me on a K here as my line suggests a big hand so far but i am not sure what he can call me with that i beat if i do bet out. OTOH he is a big fish. fact that all we got is $25 on river makes this even worse. I guess I am doomed to get it in?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $42.75
BB: $13.25
UTG: $61.95
Hero (MP): $56.50
CO: $51.45
BTN: $115.40

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($8.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A 9 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.25</font>, CO calls $6.25

Turn: ($21.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, CO calls $16

River: ($53.25) T (2 Players)
<font color="green">Hero just vomited green goo.</font>

[john_bcfc]

Wow thats such a sick hand. I wouldn't be surprised to see KK or AK here, but like you said you're ahead of a few of his hands, AJ AQ A10 99. But are these really going to bet river?? I would check fold on river depending on bet size, unless he's giving like 5-1.

I would check raise flop and shove turn tbh.

[Quester]

Bet/fold isn't an option because you only have 1/2 pot left behind. If you bet and are raised AI, you can't fold. You also don't have any fold equity, as only better hands will call. We don't have much value either.

Check/fold isn't that great either because you're getting 3:1, and he may hold AJ/AQ/AT, or similar. You lose to any 8, but we should discount these because he 3-bet you preflop. You also lose to any K, which we can't discount. However, you only need to be good here 25% of the time so folding is likely incorrect.

check/call gets us to showdown, and we will extract value from his bluffing hands (all non-K hands at this point), but lose value from his winning hands. Still, odds are good enough here to call I think.

I believe check/call is your best option. My finger is on the reload button while I'm calling, though.

[bsball8806]

I feel your pain...

This is one of those incredibly difficult situations, because you KNOW if you check to him, he's going to bet at it no matter if he has a K, AJ, 99, or whatever.

Do you have any stats on his flop aggression? Given the fact that he min raised you preflop, and called you down every street, the only king I really can see him having is AK. If you see him as generally agressive on the flop, I would not put him on AK, therefore effectively eliminating the chances he has a K (obviously not factoring in donk plays with KK, KQ, KJ, or K10).

I *think* we're good here, but seeing as he'll probably bet if we check to him, I almost like a c/c to induce a bluff from AQ, AJ, or 99 (99 probably value bets in position)

[bsball8806]

oh and if he had an 8, reload as fast as you can before he can leave the table

[Mr_Pathetic]

flop aggression of 3.5. overall aggression of 2.88 so he is aggressive overall. my stats at the table were probably like 25/20/4 or something. he was more like 41/15/2.8

[bsball8806]

You know what weird thought just occurred to me, is if HE was trying to slowplay like AA on the flop/turn, or had QQ and turned a higher set. I wonder if HE'D have the stones to lay that down.

But given his aggression, yes, I think AK definetely repops this flop, especially given his minraise preflop. So I guess this is a call.

[Mr_Pathetic]

i agree calling probably best but of course I didn't c/c I put him all in cause I figured money going in anyway and no way he can put me on a K way I played the hand but by doing so I took away his option to make a bad play and forced him into playing more correctly. really got to work on that in spots where stacks are small in relation to pot. i keep going "oh well if i check money going in anyway so i'll just bet it" which is really really really dumb.

he of course called with AK and muttered in chat about how he sucks.

I bet flop thinking he would raise me wiht any ace since i had been pushing them around. so my flop bet was with intent to b3b all in. of course that did not work lol.

oh well lesson learned here is dont push river in spots like this but allow your opponent to make a mistake.

[subs]

i think im betting like 15ish and calling a shove and being sad if he has AA or QQ or a terribly played AK

[yegon]

did you donk the flop to bet/3bet ai?

I think he can have hands that you beat as well as hands that beat you so c/c is the way to go imo. You do not fold weaker hands and you can occasionally get them to bluff at you.

Folding is out of the question even if he goes allin on the river. He can value bet 2 pair hands or even worse - he is a fish.

EDIT: oh you were quicker and answered all my questions before i posted them. awesome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]