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#1
09-01-2007, 05:16 PM
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Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in NLTRN
a row
In a HU sit and go what range do you guys call with if the opponent has moved all in 4 hands in a row? How much of an edge do you wait for if hes presumably shoving any two cards? However, dont assume he will continue shoving any 2 for the whole match, but he might. Sorry if this question has already been answered before, im new posting here. 
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#2
09-01-2007, 06:00 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a row
His range is pretty much any two cards . My intuition tells me you should call with something in the top 10% of all hands and probably closer to the top 15% of all hands .
Our equity if we call with the top 10 % of all hands is approximately : On average you'll lose 5 bb's and 4 sb's or 5 sb's 4 bb's and call on the tenth hand . You'll be down to 1360 or 1370 depending on which position you start from and call on the 10th hand with an average equity of 67.8% . 1370*2*0.678 = 1857.72 or 1360*2*0.678 = 1844.16 If you employ this strategy your equity should be just under 1857.72/3000=61.9% If you call with any hand in the top 20% then your equity should be : 1500-2*(10+20) = 1440 which means you'll lose the blinds on average 4 times before you call . 1440*2*0.6345=1827.36 since the top 20% of all hands wins 63.45% of the time . Notice that this number is less than your equity for calling with the top 10 % . So your optimal calling range must be less than the top 20 % of all hands . I'm guessing something in between 10 and 20 .
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#3
09-01-2007, 06:12 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a
I believe K8 is the cutoff hand for being profitable against any 2.
Can't remember if it's supposed to be suited or not though. Offsuit, I think. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Anyway, you can call tighter than that to reduce your variance, and win more often when you do call/push, but doing so will also reduce your overall EV (but probably not by a ton). Also, it's worth considering that most people who are willing to push with any 2 are not necessarily willing to *call* a push with any 2.
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#4
09-01-2007, 06:35 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a
Ok so I found a range that I think is optimal or very close to optimal . Keep in mind that your calling requirements do change with each and every chip you lose .
Call with the following which is approximately the top 14 % of all hands : A-10+ , K-J+ , Q-J ,A-8S+ , K-9S+ , Q-10S, + 77+ . Your equity for this game should be close to 65% .
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#5
09-01-2007, 07:00 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a
Thanks for the math, thats what I was looking for. How much do you think one should loosen up the calling range if you think if their is a possibility(say 50%) that the opponent might stop pushing every hand at some point in the match.
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#6
09-01-2007, 07:54 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a
Say he tells you that he will push all in for 10 hands only and play normally the rest .
In order to give an idea of what to call with , you have to estimate the chances that you would win when you're down 1.5*5 = 7.5 BB's . If you guess that you should win 58% of the time , then this means you should call with any hand that has an equity > 58% .
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#7
09-01-2007, 08:42 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a
[ QUOTE ]
Say he tells you that he will push all in for 10 hands only and play normally the rest . In order to give an idea of what to call with , you have to estimate the chances that you would win when you're down 1.5*5 = 7.5 BB's . If you guess that you should win 58% of the time , then this means you should call with any hand that has an equity > 58% . [/ QUOTE ] Im probably misunderstanding you but this does not make sense to me. If im down 7.5 BB against an opponent who is of equal skill level then I will win less than 50% of the time. Im not calling with hands that have less than 50% equity against a random hand. Intuitivly I think that I will have to loosen my calling range over the range you suggested for an opponent who will go all in the whole match, if I think there is a chance that he will only go all in for only the first 5, 10, or 20 hands. Im just not sure how to quantify it. Thanks for your help
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#9
09-01-2007, 10:45 PM
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Re: Calling range for opponent who has gone all in first 4 hands in a
To be even more precise , instead of talking about win % , you should be talking about $/h .
This can get a bit more complicated if we include the notion of time . So if you expect to win 60% of the time if you fold the first 10 hands and you guess that it should take you 15 minutes , then your $/h = (2*buy-in*0.6 - buy-in -rake) /.25h A buy-in for $100 would convert to (200*0.6-100-5)/0.25h = $60/h . In turn , you may convert this to $/hand . Lets say 100 hands is about 1 hour in heads up . Then $60/100hands =0.6/1hand . Surprisingly this tells us that you should call with almost all hands that have an equity of >= 50% against a random hand . After all , we would like to maximize $/h or $/hand and not our win % .
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