$100 NL, 3 handed, it's a spilt or I'm screwed

[Dread13]

Blinds are $1-2.

Stacks: Hero (SB): $280
Button: $330
SB: $24

Button is not a very good player but not horrible. He is quite loose and aggresive. He shoved a lot while shorter but once he got deep the all in's stopped.


Hero is SB and is dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Button limps, hero limps, BB checks.

Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets $6, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn is T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], pot is $24

Hero bets $20, BB calls (all in), Button calls.

River is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], pot is $80

Hero bets $35, villain is all in ($217 for hero to call)


This villain would not do this without at least a K. So I split the pot and get $60 or I lose the $217 I have left. If we were playing $500 NL I would certainly call, but this is pretty deep for $100 NL. I really thought about folding but ended up calling.

Your thoughts?

[cs3]

you would have to him on exactly KQ to even consider folding this and there is only 1 K and 2 Q's left in the deck. and he limped 3 handed so.....?

i hate that river bet sizing. id be way more likely to check hoping to induce a bluff than betting and expecting a bare Q to call you.

[Dread13]

Isn't this how a lot of fish play when flopping the nuts? Call, call, huge overbet? I mean I did call but I really feared KQ.

Why is there only 2 Q's left? And why would I try to induce a bluff at an empty side pot?

[cs3]

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Why is there only 2 Q's left?

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sorry 3 Q's. point is that its not likely at all. youre losing a ton of money if youre folding in spots like this


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And why would I try to induce a bluff at an empty side pot?

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if you check, he may bet a hand that he thinks is better than BB (who can really have anything) but worse than you and thinks you'll fold. guys make stupid plays like that all the time.

i just dont see any value in betting the river the way you did. from villains perspective $35 is an obvious value bet by a K so no worse hand is ever calling anyway. either make it look like a bluff and bet full pot, or check/r.

[loosbastard]

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i just dont see any value in betting the river the way you did. from villains perspective $35 is an obvious value bet by a K so no worse hand is ever calling anyway. either make it look like a bluff and bet full pot, or check/r.

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I agree 100%...no sane player is calling w/ a worse hand here. I either over-bet the pot...or try to induce a bluff by checking.

I'm guessing that you posted this because he had QK...but you can't fold here. As played, I mutter to myself "I swear if he has KQ...", call and probably punch a hole in my monitor while cursing my awful luck. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Dread13]

Yeah you guys are right, I can't fold here. This post probably belonged in BBV, lol.

But lets say there's a 10% chance he has KQ. (I think this is reasonable because he must have a K, and his other card is a Q about 6% of the time if it's random.) So 10% of the time I lose my $220, i.e. I lose $22, and 90% of the time I get $60, for a total of $54. So I make $32 by calling. But if the numbers were different, like if we were deeper this could be a fold. I think this a lot like when you have a straight that uses only one of your hole cards and its not the nuts. When someone shoves, you either split or you get stacked so you should often fold if the pots not very big.