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#12
07-26-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s tuesday picks
I don't know if your comments about hitting him while he is down is directed towards me MrFeelNothin. I would hope they aren't. I just stated a fact and I have nothing but respect for Crockpot which my post says with the congrats.
About whether the lines are becoming sharper or not has nothing to do with Crock directly or his system. Some of the better handicappers that are kind enough to post their plays and reasoning behind them are also expressing this concern with the linesmakers pretty much cutting down on the value plays. Again this isn't variance, it is a market that is becoming more and more inline with the linemakers numbers. There is a reason for the numbers of picks that Crock has been playing to have dropped by 50% or more, and if you don't think this is why then you are ignorant. -Brendan 
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#13
07-26-2007, 06:48 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s tuesday picks
No, not you sorry if it came across like that.
Ben in this thread and others that were ripping him on the gambl0g before he moved to livejournal.
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#14
07-26-2007, 11:07 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s tuesday picks
[ QUOTE ]
Again this isn't variance, [/ QUOTE ] Son, the long run is like pretty long, you know. [ QUOTE ] it is a market that is becoming more and more inline with the linemakers numbers. [/ QUOTE ] If that was the case, we wouldn't have any crockpot plays at all, much less multi-units plays. I vote variance and I don't know what's the use to pretend variance doesn't hit your personal sports betting heroes.
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#16
07-26-2007, 11:17 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s tuesday picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Again this isn't variance, [/ QUOTE ] Son, the long run is like pretty long, you know. [ QUOTE ] it is a market that is becoming more and more inline with the linemakers numbers. [/ QUOTE ] If that was the case, we wouldn't have any crockpot plays at all, much less multi-units plays. I vote variance and I don't know what's the use to pretend variance doesn't hit your personal sports betting heroes. [/ QUOTE ] Son no shiat the long run is like long. I would love to see Crock's "system" applied to the last few years of baseball games to see if the same situation happens each year. My guess is that each year you would see the same thing, as the season progresses we would have less and less plays. But again, where did I say that this market is perfect that the linesmakers are setting? I said it is getting more and more efficent. That is why you are seeing less and less plays. But anyway not all of us can have David's wisdom and drop in here on a dime to grace us with his presence. -Brendan
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#17
07-27-2007, 04:20 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s tuesday picks
I'm not sure if Crock is adjusting enough. I have no idea how his system works but there must be some fundamental changes in how teams are/were performing now as opposed to then. This losing stretch has been long enough that I'm starting to wonder if the plays are simply not profitable right now. Variance can't be the only factor
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#20
07-27-2007, 09:27 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s tuesday picks
Brendan,
Have you calculated the probability of having a losing stretch over the course of a Baseball season, lets say 10 days long (a month ?), even if you hit something like 65% of the games? If I don't agree with you it's not because of my "wisdom", I think it's simple math, and casual observation. You said we have less plays, and I really don't know your definition of less, but for example yesterday we had 9 plays (out of 13 games), and frankly I have not seen much of a difference on the number of pays, but I may be wrong. Hopefully you keep this civil, I know crockpot would do. I don't even understand what's the problem with some of the forum's fauna (aka "regulars") if we discuss this, I mean, it's not like we're saying something about the bible.
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