ryder cup 2006 thoughts

[dankhank]

the under is up to -165 and i think most value is gone.

the top scorer prop is at +123 and imo still has value. i may have overstated this one a little, but i can't remember a ryder cup where the winning team didn't have the top scorer. golfing gods has the top scorer (individual) odds at woods +550, furyk +800, garcia +800, donald +1000, mickelson +1000, monty +1300, etc.

europe to win at +100 is a good bet. it can actually be scalped with US +138 and draw +1200 for a small profit, for further proof of the number's quality.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the value here is USA at 2.38 (Pinny)
After the drubbing they suffered last time i think they will finally be fired up for this event.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can find a slightly better line.

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
europe to win at +100 is a good bet. it can actually be scalped with US +138 and draw +1200 for a small profit, for further proof of the number's quality.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I did. I needed to clear some bonuses (at betwwts in particular after the free bet) and I really want to root hard for the US. But Europe at +100 is just too good of a line to not take.

[freewheeler]

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts:

FADE TIGER

His Ryder Cup record is puzzling. I think the fact that the Europeans are actually favored for a change is an indication that they will win again.

[/ QUOTE ]

fmp

[dankhank]

adding singles matches (pinnacle)

westwood -106 over dimarco - 106 to win 100
henry -121 over mcginley - 121 to win 100
campbell +140 over donald - 71 to win 100

pinny's lines have been tight for a lot of the matchups. i don't love these plays either if they move against the target numbers.

main proposition bet a lock with garcia clinching top scorer. he played brilliantly all four matches, better than i could've even hoped. europe has dominated score-wise, but most matches have been tightly contested and pretty well played. so i think siding with a few americans tomorow is a decent subset.

[dankhank]

montgomerie -117 over toms - 117 to 100

toms' swing has looked shaky all weekend

[dankhank]

had a little irish luck all weekend. today mcginley concedes a 30 foot birdie putt to henry after a streaker accosts the 18th green. i'll take the push!

ytd
20-20 +0.79 matchups
4-5 +9.89 props

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]

Ryder Cup 2006 results
RESULT: USA 9½-18½ EUROPE.
Europe win Ryder Cup


[/ QUOTE ]

fyp.

Some good golf. If only there hadn't been the streaker it would have (very likely) been 19-9.

Would you have guessed that Europe would score better in the individual matches than in the team matches while winning all 5 sessions and being a little gracious in a couple of the matches after all was decided?

[commish223]

I think one way to cure the Americans woes would be to name Tiger player/captain. Any thoughts?

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
I think one way to cure the Americans woes would be to name Tiger player/captain. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. I think better changes to increase the US chances would be to drop the point system, or qualify fewer people and then choose more "captain's pick" type. It isn't even clear that the point system chooses the best players. Consider, based on world golf rankings:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Name (american rank) [world rank]
Woods (1) [1]
Mickelson (2) [2]
Furyk (3) [3]
Campbell (6) [22]
Toms (5) [16]
DiMarco (4) [15]
Taylor (24) [60]
Henry (26) [64]
Johnson (14) [42]
Wetterich (28) [68]
Cink (7) [23]
Verplank (10) [37]
==================
Total (130, avg 10.8) [353, avg 29.4]
</pre><hr />
In other words, it isn't that surprising that the captains picks did ok since they were better choices than the last 4 points qualifiers. The other US players that round out the top 15 are:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Love III (8) [26]
Perry (9) [30]
Bryant (11) [38]
Lehman (12) [39]
Oberholser (13) [41]
Glover (15) [43]
====================
TotalTop12 (78, avg 6.5) [252, avg 21]
TotalTop15 (120, avg 8) [378, avg 25.2]
</pre><hr />

Now compare to Europe:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Name (european rank) [world rank]
Stenson (3) [11]
Donald (2) [9]
Garcia (1) [8]
Howell (4) [13]
Montgomerie (5) [14]
Casey (6) [17]
Karlsson (12) [36]
Harrington (7) [18]
McGinley (16) [53]
Olazabal (8) [19]
Clarke (9) [24]
Westwood (14) [51]
==================
Total (87, avg 7.3) [273, avg 22.8]
</pre><hr />
The Europeans do a better job of picking their top players to the team. Their rounded out top 15 include:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Pattersson (10) [28]
Bjorn (11) [32]
Poulter (13) [45]
Edfors (15) [52]
=================
TotalTop12 (78, avg 6.5) [229, avg 19.1]
TotalTop15 (120, avg 8) [377, avg 25.1]
</pre><hr />

Now the analysis above shows the European team as basically equal to the US at the top 15 level and a little better at the top 12 level, but much better when you look at who made the team rather than who the best golfers from each team's pool of players were. Admittedly, the analysis is somewhat simplistic as it assumes each rank can be added like this when clearly the gaps between rankings are greatest at the top. The gap between 1 and 10 is much bigger than the gap between 21 and 30. In fact the gap between #3 (Furyk, 3rd best American) and #8 (Garcia, best European) is about the same as the gap between #8 (Garcia) and #45 (Poulter, 13th best European) in the world. And the gap between #1 and #2 is bigger than between #2 and the last ranked player in the world. Even doing a ratio, rather than a straight gap #2/#1 = #26/#2. So the American's advantage really is just the top 3 players.

In addition to picking their better players more accurately than the US, the Europeans have better players than the US to pick from once you talk about depth. The US have the top 3 players in the world but have just 5 players in the top 20 compared to 8 top 20 players from Europe. 3 of the US's top 12 players are worse than Europe's 12th best player.

8-12 players right now is kind of a magic number for Europe as they have the better team of that depth, while the US is better if you up the number (19 top 50 players and 42 top 100 players for the US compared to 13 top 50 and 30 top 100 players for Europe) or if you lower the number to top 5 players.

I'm unsure also if the captain shouldn't just ask the top 3 guys who do you want to play with out of any American and then, if that American isn't in the top 12 name them as a captain's pick even if they wouldn't get named on their own. Especially if you are going to ride your top players. You may also want to make sure the top 3 do NOT play together on a team as that dilutes their advantage. If you are going to ride the top 3 players may as well ride them as playing half of 3 teams each session rather than 1 team and half of another. Then you have 3 teams that play all 4 sessions and pick the next best 6 Americans [primarily picking them for their individual match play ability since they will get to compete for 6 points in individual match play and 4 total team points] to fill out the team, and choose the best team (not necessarily the next best 2 players but the 2 players you think would form the best team) from that 6 to fill out both foresome slots, and the last 4 get to partner up for one team match in four-ball.

But I'm also unsure that the US should ride the top players in the team events so much. It is clear that this is where the edge over Europe is in world stroke play individual tournament strength. I'm not sure they are that much better (if at all) than the rest of the team (in the team style events) and letting others play, particular if any others form good teams, may take some of the pressure of the top players and may also reflect who are the top teams as the top players in normal stroke play may not be the top players in team match play events.