UK Student Poker Championship 2007

[rockusteady]

Okay, so this hand was the last hand of day 1 for the UK Student Poker Championship. For those of you who don't know about it, it's a $60 freezeout NL tournament with 340 students entering from all over the UK. In addition to making a a few thousand dollars for first place, the winner will also get a ticket into the big one-or an additional 10k. So the over lay is pretty huge.

I'm in Edinburgh for the semester and the tournament was in St Andrews and if I was going to come back for day two, I would have to pay for transportation and budget about 1.5 hours for the train ride. So I decided on day one that I would be willing to REALLY gamble for a big stack so I could give myself a great shot at making the final table/winning, especially if i was to make the trek back on day 2.

Some factors: My table was super weak tight by the end of day 1 and all of the players were trying to squeeze into day 2. I took advantage of this...alot. By the last hour of play I was probably raising 1/4th of my hands, and I almost never got looked up. I was sitting on about 60k, which was huge at that point while the next closest stack was about 45k. Most players were short stacked, but unwilling to come over the top of me.

Blinds 1k-2k. SB (with about 45k) posts 1k and BB posts his last 6 hundred in chips.
There had been a lot of joking (and not joking) about my "crazy" raising habits and how someone had to put a stop to it. Remember, this was literally the last hand of the day.

UTG i raise to 5.5 k with AKo. Folds around to sb who makes it 15.5k. he is a pretty predictable semi-tight player. trys to steal blinds in position occasionally. Nothing really out of hand.

Earlier that day, I saw him play this hand: CO raised to 2k, he reraised to 8k, CO pushed for 12k more, he folded 88 face up. To put it simply, he's playing really scared.

Back to the hand, I was about to fold to his raise when he gave me a look that said "I don't give a damn". He then told me that if I pushed he "had" to call. I was about 95% certain at that point that there was no way he had KK/AA. I put him on QQ-TT.

He has 23k left after that raise. If we play for stacks and lose, I'll be down to 20k, a short stack, but still have a little breathing room. If i fold to the raise I'll have about 55k which was very adequate for the next day. If i play for stacks and win, I'll be on a huge stack, maybe the biggest and will be able to punish the short stacks trying to sneak into the money on day two.

Considering his play with 88, do you think I have enough FE against him to make the move in correct? Even if he does call with QQ/JJ, is it worth flipping a coin for a massive stack on day 2?

i realize now this post is super long. Sorry about that, but i feel like all of the background info is crucial to the hand.,

[TCA]

You don't need any fold equity to make this push a pure +EV play. Pot is offering you 1.37 to 1 and you need around the 1.3 to 1 mark (assuming QQ/JJ).

So mathematically its an easy push if you are sure he doesn't hold AA/KK.

At the end of the day it comes down to do you want to go into day 2 with 55k and build your stack by continuing to take down blinds or do you want to take a shot at getting a huge stack and putting yourself in prime position to take down first place. Given the information about your situation this looks like a really easy push.

Also don't you think there are other factors involved? You have been running over the table, its the last hand of the day etc. Even with your raise being UTG I still think a hand like AQ is a possibility. Its also possible that you have some fold equity against this guy if he has like JJ/TT since he surely knows he will be at best flipping for his tournament life.

[Fiksdal]

You already got this figured out yourself. His range is pretty strong, probably something like JJ+(TT), AQ+. Maybe even tighter, I dont know?

He might be lieing about not folding some of it, the 88 hand souns crucial.

I think this guy is the type to be afraid of his tournament life, especially at this point, the end of day 1.

You have overlay, and you might have more fold equity than you think, because you have him covered. You are also doing absouluteley fine against his calling range. The push is good here.

[paddymcg21]

Shove! Why not! Last hand of the day and given your table image he could have a wide range of hands you're well ahead of. Possibly 99-JJ which he may well lay down and QQ-AA he probably wont. He wont want to flip a coin for all his chips here. I've played with players like you before, players who constantly raise and run over the table. I try to be sure before I suspect something and make a play. If a player raises 5 times in the space of 10 hands he could be very aggressive, but he could have also have picked up AA,KK,AK JJ and AQ in those 5 hands. I've made plays at players I thought were stealing too much when i've had position with as little as 67s. Here i'd put him all in if I were you. you're only afraid of AA and KK and the odds are in your favour. In some ways id rather have AK in this spot than QQ, as with AK there are less ways for him to have AA or KK. I'd shove. If you lose and have 20k then your still in the game.

[sixfour]

Was this on the Friday or the Saturday? I think this is a clear shove regardless, because so many players were folding way too easily (at least on my tables), but if this was on the Saturday I believe I've played with the villain in question [see notes below in white] before, in which case you're not folding him out and you're at best flipping.

<font color="white">If you got it in for stacks and won, then it is the guy I'm thinking of.</font>

[Mr.Poker]

I tell him I have Aces, push it in and watch him fold.

As the others have said though, a push is +EV even if he calls, but the players are SOOO weak tight at these things that it is a clear push. If your playing for first in this tourny, and with that ticket, you definitly should be, push this all day long.

Hope it went well. Let us know how you got on.

[Cablelessray]

easy call no matter what the backround is. the only question is if you are coming back on day 2 with only 20 K if you lose... and you already know subconsciously that you would, but would be annoyed about it.

so just push and be happy about it... +EV is gOOd

-ray

[rockusteady]

sixfour- we are thinking of the same player. Did we ever play together?

For the record I pushed and got called by QQ. but it always helps when you flop a full house. I ended the day second in chips and that lead helped me sneak into the final table and finish 5th.

Thanks for the responses guys.

[sixfour]

[ QUOTE ]
sixfour- we are thinking of the same player. Did we ever play together?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I played the Friday and busted late on day 1.

[omaha]

I disagree with fiksdal on the guys range.

This is the last hand of the day, and vvvvv strange things happen. People will push and call with all sorts of [censored], the double up or go home theory.

I notice this just before the break where i play. Blinds double after the 20 min break, half the table knows they will be crippled, and it is not uncommon to see a whole heap of all ins in the last three hands dealt.

He might even just be standing up to you with crud, or a pair, thinking that he is prolly the favourite.

Good shove, and a nice result to top it off!