AA vs. Scariest Board Ever

[tjfields]

No specific reads on SB, unfortunately.

Cake Poker Skin, $1/$2 Limit Hold'Em - 10 players.

Preflop: Hero is MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero calls

<font color="purple">Plan was to call and raise a safe turn on this wetter-than-wet flop. Only thing I'm pretty sure of is that SB does not have a T - most villains seem to either c/c flop, c/r turn or c/r flop with flopped trips. </font>

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero calls

<font color="purple">Well, that wasn't a very safe turn now was it?</font>

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero ???

<font color="purple">4-to-a-straight-flush on the board and need to be good about 1-in-6 times to make a profitable call. Thoughts? Anyone suggest a different line for flop and/or turn?</font>

[scpi10]

Hero folds. You don't beat anything anymore.
I raise the flop. Although wiating for a safe turn sounds good too.

[JJack]

i would probably raise flop
or like u play turn

at turn i would probably raise for free SH and fold to 3bet

as played fold river

[bozlax]

Raise the flop aninec. Fold to further aggression as the board gets scarier.

As the hand played in this case, I'd probably have called the river.

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds. You don't beat anything anymore.
I raise the flop. Although wiating for a safe turn sounds good too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still beat QJ (OESD on the flop) and Q9, J9. Problem is, literally every other hand on the planet has gotten there. Are these hands more than 15-ish percent of what he shows up with here?

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop aninec. Fold to further aggression as the board gets scarier.

[/ QUOTE ]

&lt;devil's advocate&gt;

Why do I want to make the pot bigger, only to fold later?

Don't I want to avoid getting pwned if behind (in case he DOES have a T), and let him keep bluffing if ahead?

Isn't my equity going to change drastically on the next street, an argument against the flop raise?

&lt;/devils advocate&gt;

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do I want to make the pot bigger, only to fold later?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you've decided that you're going to fold, fold the flop, you don't have the odds to draw to two outs. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't I want to avoid getting pwned if behind (in case he DOES have a T), and let him keep bluffing if ahead?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not, I repeat NOT, a WA/WB situation. You have no read, so no guarantee that he's going to keep bluffing. It is ridiculously unlikely, especially in light of his donkbet, that he has a ten.

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't my equity going to change drastically on the next street, an argument against the flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

What card could fall on the turn that would drastically alter your equity, aside from an ace?

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you've decided that you're going to fold, fold the flop, you don't have the odds to draw to two outs. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't decided I'm folding - more a reference to a Miller-meta-principle of "any strategy designed to put more money in the pot only to fold later is likely not good" as in the line: raise, intending to fold to a 3-bet. Not that I'm suggesting that is what your idea is.

[ QUOTE ]
This is not, I repeat NOT, a WA/WB situation. You have no read, so no guarantee that he's going to keep bluffing. It is ridiculously unlikely, especially in light of his donkbet, that he has a ten.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% that this is not WA/WB, and agree with your (and my original) assessment of a T being unlikely. The beauty of being in position, though, is I need no guarantee he's going to keep bluffing - if he stops bluffing I can bet.

[ QUOTE ]
What card could fall on the turn that would drastically alter your equity, aside from an ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, any flush or straight completing card, which is a TON of cards on this board. The card that fell, for example. If against a flush draw, I went from 60%-ish favorite to drawing dead. The only worse equity-altering card I can imagine falling on the turn would be the other end of the board - the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[bozlax]

TJ, what range are you putting SB on when he donks? How do you know that the same cards that scare you don't scare him into, say, check/folding the turn? You need a lot more information before you start talking about waiting for the turn to raise, especially in what may be viewed as a steal situation.

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]
TJ, what range are you putting SB on when he donks? How do you know that the same cards that scare you don't scare him into, say, check/folding the turn? You need a lot more information before you start talking about waiting for the turn to raise, especially in what may be viewed as a steal situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am putting him almost exclusively on a draw, either OESD (QJ, 87) or a flush draw. Way (way) lower in probability are him donking a 9 (which we are WA of) and a T (which we are WB). I will assume the 9 and T are remote enough and cancel each other out, such that we only put opponent on a draw. I am discounting air as well, which may be a mistake.

We are therefore (by my read above) always ahead, and our opponent always has 8-9 outs against us. He is also seeing a river at worst check/calling a turn bet, never folding. Therefore my 65%-ish equity against his draw on the flop becomes close to zero if he hits, or goes to 85%-ish on the turn if he misses. Thing is, I don't know WHICH draw he has, so he has (effectively) 15 outs, as he can represent either draw when it completes.

I do not necessarily agree with my play at all, but am looking to explore when I should (and should not) wait for the turn on these boards where equity can take a mad swing on many turn cards (which are the ones I had thought this play was appropriate on).

Can anyone come up with a good example of when waiting is correct, and how it differs from this hand?