Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Lord_Strife · #1 07-12-2007, 08:18 PM

A good friend of mine is a big rays fan and I was talking about how they might be the worst team in professional sports. We have a prop bet brewing about the odds that the Devil Rays win the World Series title in the next 10 years. If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

wheatrich · #2 07-12-2007, 08:42 PM

why on earth would you make a bet that won't end up finalizing in ten years? There's a good chance you'd forget about it.

Lord_Strife · #3 07-12-2007, 08:53 PM

Nah, not us... don't worry about the bet, i'm interested in odds

ImStillBen · #4 07-12-2007, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A good friend of mine is a big rays fan and I was talking about how they might be the worst team in professional sports. We have a prop bet brewing about the odds that the Devil Rays win the World Series title in the next 10 years. If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would set the Yes at +9999999999 and then bet the Yes.

craig · #5 07-12-2007, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

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+500000000000000 on NO and bet it all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

seriously though, as far as the division is concerned (I cannot even think about TB winning the WS) if NYY and BOS continue to put the same type of teams out there that they did at the beginning of the season (or attempted to) then I cannot imagine that one of these two teams doesn't win the division 65-70% of the time. It could possibly be higher. That would leave 30% for the other 3 teams, with Toronto maybe having 15% (and possibly more than a 5% higher than BAL) chance each year and BAL 10, TB 5% (I am really guessing on all of these numbers). That would give TB about a 40% chance to win the division in the next 10 years.

craig

New001 · #6 07-12-2007, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

[/ QUOTE ]

+500000000000000 on NO and bet it all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

seriously though, as far as the division is concerned (I cannot even think about TB winning the WS) if NYY and BOS continue to put the same type of teams out there that they did at the beginning of the season (or attempted to) then I cannot imagine that one of these two teams doesn't win the division 65-70% of the time. It could possibly be higher. That would leave 30% for the other 3 teams, with Toronto maybe having 15% (and possibly more than a 5% higher than BAL) chance each year and BAL 10, TB 5% (I am really guessing on all of these numbers). That would give TB about a 40% chance to win the division in the next 10 years.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]
This sounds pretty good at least to start with. I was going to guess somewhere in the +200, +300, somewhere along those lines. It's certainly much closer to that than it would be to some ridiculous +1000 number.

rush66 · #7 07-12-2007, 09:11 PM

find a book with the current odds they are at now. Multiply by ten....this is assuming you dont believe they will improve at all, which isnt possible. Therefore, shade it in your favor slightly or heavily.

craig · #8 07-12-2007, 09:14 PM

Also, they are not the worst team in baseball.

craig

New001 · #9 07-12-2007, 09:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, they are not the worst team in baseball.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]
Nor is their future as bleak as some of the teams ahead of them right now.

Lord_Strife · #10 07-12-2007, 09:47 PM

So whats the general consensus? You expect them to win the WS in the next 10 years +400?