QQ overpair facing river shove?

[scallop]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $11.50
Hero (BB): $38.55
UTG: $29.55
MP: $10.35
CO: $25.00
BTN: $44.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, UTG calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $7.00</font>, Hero calls $3.50

River: ($19.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets all-in for $20.05</font>, [i]Hero....???

Villian is 21/1/1 of a small sample.

Does anyone make sick fold on turn? River ranges.... ?

I thought it could be two pair that got counterfieted, 99+ was also possible, but it's SUCH a strong river bet.


Also he insta-shoved.

[homeslice]

I don't see what you beat by calling...you're probably up against a set of 2s or 3s

[Lostit]

You're beat here. Notice the minraise on the turn. It isn't necesarily the river card that helped him, as he might have shove the turn if you had re-raised instead of called.

Also, many people, when they hit a monster on the flop, may simply call your flop bet to see if you're willing to bet into them and make their life easier. Call the flop/Raise the turn is usually a monster. The river push, to me, is almost irrelevant.

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone make sick fold on turn? River ranges.... ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Erm Im pretty sure his river psb shove needs to be taken into account - If he bets 5 I call.

Do you fold if he 1/4 psb river?

[Fingerswinger]

you say small sample, but 21/1/1 speaks a clear language. against such a passive guy i would fold to his turn minraise. this is a set always, except when it is a straight.

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
you say small sample, but 21/1/1 speaks a clear language. against such a passive guy i would fold to his turn minraise. this is a set always, except when it is a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - its still a pretty sick fold tho.

[z28dreams]

In this case, it might be easier to try to name all the hands you're ahead of rather than behind.

Ahead of:
88-JJ - not likely given his limp/call preflop line
A7/A7s - preflop and flop make sense, but turn/river won't play this way
43 - preflop line makes sense. turn raise makes sense. river is screwy, but possible.

Behind:
22,33,77 - seems likely
KK,AA - not likely given passive preflop/flop play, but not impossible either. I've learned that it's hard to limit a villain's hand based on preflop play at these stakes.

So, let's pick the -best- case scenario, and say the range is:
22,33,77,KK,AA,43,TT,JJ - we're around 1:1 with this.

Now, against a more reasonable range of:
22,33,77,KK,AA,43 - we're only a 32% favorite, so we need around 2:1 to call.

We're getting around 1:1 to call, so this is one of those spots where you're even money best case or a huge dog.

Fold it.

[scallop]

Cool - Just wanted to know if anyone had argument for calling.

I mucked it.