Peak Oil and investing in oil companies and or other companies

[emon87]

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Actually, that is a good point. Turns out we have a lot of oil shale in the Rockies that is attainable and I believe profitable at these prices, there is a book out on it, but I can't remember the title, sorry. I plan to research it further.

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yeah and the huge deposits in the tar sands of northern canada. Techniques for extracting it are becoming very refined

[Tornado69]

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lol there is soo much oil left in your own country OP, peak oil is a ways off.


and lol at the people taking fishhead seriously.

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India and China have 1/3 of the world's population and they are using a lot more oil. 15 years or 20 years from now when they are using WAY more oil than today what will happen ? Yes we have an insane amount of oil in northern Alberta but the whole world is buying and using it. It's going to go way faster than most expect it.

[emon87]

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lol there is soo much oil left in your own country OP, peak oil is a ways off.


and lol at the people taking fishhead seriously.

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India and China have 1/3 of the world's population and they are using a lot more oil. 15 years or 20 years from now when they are using WAY more oil than today what will happen ? Yes we have an insane amount of oil in northern Alberta but the whole world is buying and using it. It's going to go way faster than most expect it.

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don't you think that most of the researchers would have taken china and india into account?

[tolbiny]

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lol there is soo much oil left in your own country OP, peak oil is a ways off.


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The bottle neck for oil right now is in refining, not in drilling possibilities.

[disjunction]

People have been echoing these thoughts for the last 6 years. With a great deal of success, of course. I have had lots of my portfolio in Canadian companies of this sort, that have access to these oil sands. Of course I have had great returns, the sector has been like shooting fish in a barrel.

I have not invested in the companies you specifically mention because (without knowing the numbers) it seems a lot of the oil they "possess" is foreign. That is, some day, if oil is scarce, unfriendly countries may say to Exxon, "screw you, we're keeping our oil". That is why I like Canadian companies.

On the subject of Ethanol I like that too, and have owned ADM and DE for awhile. Again, fish in a barrel. I still like them somewhat because the politicians must kiss Iowa's ass, and promise large amounts of ethanol funding, for at least another 5 months. In a few months I may bail.

[The once and future king]

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lol there is soo much oil left in your own country OP, peak oil is a ways off.


and lol at the people taking fishhead seriously.

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India and China have 1/3 of the world's population and they are using a lot more oil. 15 years or 20 years from now when they are using WAY more oil than today what will happen ? Yes we have an insane amount of oil in northern Alberta but the whole world is buying and using it. It's going to go way faster than most expect it.

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don't you think that most of the researchers would have taken china and india into account?



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Most of the independent research is pro peak oil.

[DcifrThs]

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lol there is soo much oil left in your own country OP, peak oil is a ways off.


and lol at the people taking fishhead seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

India and China have 1/3 of the world's population and they are using a lot more oil. 15 years or 20 years from now when they are using WAY more oil than today what will happen ? Yes we have an insane amount of oil in northern Alberta but the whole world is buying and using it. It's going to go way faster than most expect it.

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don't you think that most of the researchers would have taken china and india into account?



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Most of the independent research is pro peak oil.

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is that weighted for quality?

Barron

[Tornado69]

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lol there is soo much oil left in your own country OP, peak oil is a ways off.


and lol at the people taking fishhead seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

India and China have 1/3 of the world's population and they are using a lot more oil. 15 years or 20 years from now when they are using WAY more oil than today what will happen ? Yes we have an insane amount of oil in northern Alberta but the whole world is buying and using it. It's going to go way faster than most expect it.

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don't you think that most of the researchers would have taken china and india into account?



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My friends uncle is a billionaire and owns Fathom Energy which is deep in the tar sands of Alberta and is headquarterd in Calgary. I'm sure he knows more than the 'experts'. India and China are using more and more oil and are desperate for oil.

[The once and future king]

It should be intuitive to anyone with half a brain cell.

New finds/fields tar sands etc, have to both replace old exhausted fields and also meet ever increasing demand, for peak oil not to be a reality. Untapped oil recources are not even going to get close to replacing what has and is about to become exhausted.

Aslo tar sands etc all have much higher manufacturing costs so even in the best case scenario you are looking at higher base line costs for energy.

[DcifrThs]

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It should be intuitive to anyone with half a brain cell.

New finds/fields tar sands etc, have to both replace old exhausted fields and also meet ever increasing demand, for peak oil not to be a reality. Untapped oil recources are not even going to get close to replacing what has and is about to become exhausted.

Aslo tar sands etc all have much higher manufacturing costs so even in the best case scenario you are looking at higher base line costs for energy.

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you are right. based on what you say, peak oil is indisputable.

but you've missed a major factor that makes it unlikely, and one factor that has made peak oil a joke since inception. at every point in time since the origination of peak oil, there has been the theory that the amount of reserves in the ground and rate of refinement, extraction etc. will never meet demand by year X and by year Y where Y>X, there will be no oil left.

but year Y keeps getting pushed back? why?

because innovation and demand elasticities aren't proporly corrected for.

the human ability to respond to a falling commodity supply aren't easy to deal with and haven't (to my knowledge) been studied to the point of decent estimation.

every time period peak oil says "given current trends" or "given current levels of projected dmeand growth and estimated supply growth" etc. they don't take into accound basically random innovation in the future between now and time Y.

at time X, oil pirce will increase since demand won't be met. but as price rises, the incentive to innovate and alternate usage increases. other technologies become attractive. it isn't that we CANT run out of oil...it's simply that we wont, EVER run out of oil.

the reason is because as the last drop of oil comes closer and closer to reality, the price would increase higher and higher such that fewer and fewer people could and would want to buy it at that price.

those that do, have to pay that high price. but they will, as the price gets higher, be incented ever more strongly to substitute or innovate.

it is what has always happened and what will likely continue to happen.

this is why peak oil has kept pushing back Y and why, in fact, Y will never arrive.

even with a massive shock somewhere, people will drive less, consume less oil as price becomes ever higher. govt may even be forced to step in if the shock is severe enough (1973).

this explanation i've provided isn't my own, i learned about it reading and getting trained. but it makes the most sense.

the main problem/issue is the degree to which we depend on oil for plastics, and really everything in our lives.

we will have a massive demand shock for alternatives as well if the supply shock for oil happens (i.e. all oil refineries or pumps blow up simultaneously or something).

their prices will rise but not by as much as the real deal: oil.

so there you have it.

why peak oil will almost certainly never come about and almost certainly never be correct (just as it has been incorrect and its predictions proved patently wrong time and time again)

Barron