Kinda simple hand from 1.5k NL event

[WarDekar]

I think he's getting called lighter then that, especially by the guy in position if everyone else folds. He's getting pretty massive odds to call anything he called the OR with.

[gobboboy]

[ QUOTE ]
This is live, I would call. You may be able to take down the pot postflop more than you think. Plus if you push and get called by one player with top pair, you are ahead of pot odds with a draw and not that far behind pot odds with middle pair. There is some advantage to being short stacked postflop and able to push. Plus you could flop big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we got the nine eight suited I guess it's worth a call. Yesterday I flopped two pair with this hand! Can ya believe that? Two pair.

[Mench]

I like a shove.

[Bonified]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]
Does the program consider a board pair still counting as two pair. Example: a flop of 8JJ.

I'm not a big fan of shoving here. The UTG player will be able to call a reasonable number of times and you have two fish that you're trying to force out too. The chances that you steal the pot is pretty small IMO.

Calling looks like it isn't quite worth it with the numbers quoted above.

[0evg0]

gobbo wins.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]
Does the program consider a board pair still counting as two pair. Example: a flop of 8JJ.

I'm not a big fan of shoving here. The UTG player will be able to call a reasonable number of times and you have two fish that you're trying to force out too. The chances that you steal the pot is pretty small IMO.

Calling looks like it isn't quite worth it with the numbers quoted above.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sometimes you'll flop a gutshot or something and itll get checked around. Yes it's rare but definitely happens sometimes. Same can be said if you flop one pair. It just feels like there's too much money in the pot and that we do have fold equity on some of our draws.

[mlagoo]

newt,

i agree with most of what you said -- that shoving has got to be wrong, and calling looks thin/bad. the other problem (and i think this is significant, and shaun mentioned it above), is that when i call and check/fold the overwhelming majority of flops that im gonna be check/folding, my stack has lost a lot of resteal FE -- instead of 9800 i'll be at 8600, 8200 after my SB. and at this table where people were opening light, i think it was important to hold onto that.

[Bonified]

It's been a while since I wrote it, but I don't think it does. Obv it shouldn't.

If it helps, there's also around 16% chance we flop 6-10 outs (regulation str8 or flush draw, pair + gutshot, etc).

[schwah]

i think calling in spots like this is one of the most common leaks at the ~15bb range. imo its a fold and not particularly close.