Kinda simple hand from 1.5k NL event

[AragornX151]

I think this is a shove or fold spot (though I do sometimes call because the cards look so damn pretty).

Technically, a fold is best. By calling, you're just investing too many chips OOP with a purely speculative hand. You essentially have to open shove any board you get a decent piece of (flush or str8 draw, pair + gutshot, etc) if you're going to make the call in the first place.

However, I think people are wrong in saying there's no FE in shoving, which is my choice here given hero's M and the fact that I DO think there's some serious folding equity. The live tournaments I've played in, ranging from $100 to $800, have all had one thing in common; 90% of the players simply cannot accurately judge stack sizes. It is, by far, the biggest difference between online and live play, and I think that the shove actually DOES have some serious folding equity. If the first few people fold, the people after often won't be thinking that this "was a great squeeze spot, he must be pushing light" and call with weaker hands. They'll fold a LOT more than people here, who I believe are predominantly online players, think. Even in a WSOP event.

Online, this is a fold (or a slightly weak call). The shove won't work there. But live, I like it a lot.

[curtains]

Did I mention that I think this is a call? And anyone who says its an obvious fold and huge leak is crazy. At worst its like slightly -EV. I'm sure it's possible that its -EV. I don't know for sure. However I would still call based on my current knowledge.

[NoahSD]

It's just a fold. Our equity when called (always) is way worse than some people are probably assuming it is. We're worse than 2:1 against 77+/AJ+. If we push and get called, we're effectively getting 1.68:1. That's a really big gap to make up with fold equity, and there's no way we actually make it up.

[nath]

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It's just a fold. Our equity when called (always) is way worse than some people are probably assuming it is. We're worse than 2:1 against 77+/AJ+. If we push and get called, we're effectively getting 1.68:1. That's a really big gap to make up with fold equity, and there's no way we actually make it up.

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1.68:1? I really thought it was better for us than that. And I think there is a decent amount of FE here given that we have reason to believe ALL the other players in the hand are fairly loose.

[curtains]

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It's just a fold. Our equity when called (always) is way worse than some people are probably assuming it is. We're worse than 2:1 against 77+/AJ+. If we push and get called, we're effectively getting 1.68:1. That's a really big gap to make up with fold equity, and there's no way we actually make it up.

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1.68:1? I really thought it was better for us than that. And I think there is a decent amount of FE here given that we have reason to believe ALL the other players in the hand are fairly loose.

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Assuming you couldn't go allin, would you rather call or fold?

[Irish Mafia]

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I call. We are in between that point where we have a comfortable stack and a short stack... so it doesn't matter that much that we might lose 1800.

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Uhhh, not really. We are already quite short. 10,000 chips, and each orbit 1575 - or an "M" of just over 6. Although you are being laid HUGE odds - if you call and whiff - you are really going to be in desperation mode.

That being said - in these tournaments where you are starting w/o a deep stack - this is a decent risk to take, to try and build a monster stack.
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I have my own question (though I think I know the answer). We call. Flop comes 9-6-3 rainbow. I assume we open-shove?
What if the flop comes J-8-3 rainbow?

[curtains]

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I call. We are in between that point where we have a comfortable stack and a short stack... so it doesn't matter that much that we might lose 1800.

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btw we are risking 1200, not 1800.

[uclabruinz]

Curtains, are you in favor of a call because you think it is cEV+, or because you believe that the tournament situation dictates a gamble here?

[curtains]

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Curtains, are you in favor of a call because you think it is cEV+, or because you believe that the tournament situation dictates a gamble here?

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Honestly I'm sure it's close. But it gives us the chance at attaining a big stack, which has other advantages. It's possible its slightly -EV, but it's never going to be more than very slight. And I'm not even sure that's the case.

[Irish Mafia]

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I have my own question (though I think I know the answer). We call. Flop comes 9-6-3 rainbow. I assume we open-shove?
What if the flop comes J-8-3 rainbow?

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