Stars $150 down to 30 players, AJo

JayPez · #1 05-09-2007, 03:04 AM

Stars $150, down to 30 players. Villian 16/11 over 47 hands. Seems solid opening.

he just doubled winning a big pot with aq where he opened standard raise, cont bet qxx flop, check called ai on k turn. I just won a 30k pot last hand by open min raising with aa otb vs a small stack in the bb and he pushed on me with k9o. The 3 players behind me are losing highstakers. hadn't checked villians stats yet. The table looks weak tight not much opening, but some restealing.

I boshed out some ranges and did some math, but i'm interested to see what people think here before i share them.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2500 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t41062)
MP2 (t81060)
Hero (t62982)
Button (t49552)
SB (t54249)
BB (t52072)
UTG (t25139)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 raises to t7100, Hero ??

registrar · #2 05-09-2007, 04:29 AM

Tricky. Have you seen him raise/fold at all?

JayPez · #3 05-09-2007, 04:52 AM

i had played with him about 45mins earlier, which is where i complied the pokertracker data 30 hands or so, we got moved away in a reshuffle and then put back on same table.

not seen him raise fold or any other hands shown down.

only other history with him, him limped in sb vs bb, which i pushed for 13bb's or so, he then gave me a walk next sb vs bb.

registrar · #4 05-09-2007, 05:01 AM

OK, I probably fold there, if I'm honest, because I think you're priced in against ranges (but behind) if you raise. Raising to 18k or so should see him drop one much better hand (AQ) and some flipping hands (66-77) - and these hands won't usually shove behind either. Ther problem is that if you give him or anyone behind a four-bet shoving range of TT+, AK, I think you'll be priced in on a call (this is total guesswork) so as I don't really want to get all my chips in with AJo and I don't have room to four-bet fold, I just fold here.

swede554 · #5 05-09-2007, 05:12 AM

You say the he seems to be opening w/ solid hands. Since 3-betting pretty much commits us to playing this hand for our stack I don't like it much because if he pushes we're in bad shape almost always.

I suppose calling and using your position to you advantage to utilize pot control can be argued for, but since you don't know if your good even if you hit an A or J you can't get much value even when you're ahead. This seems like a fold to me, might be nitty, but I just don't see how this situation can be that profitable for us.

Somewhat of an out-of-the box idea is, and I usually don't suggest to min-reraise ever, but if he just saw you minraise OTB w/ AA, you could min-reraise him and get away the hand if he 4-bets. If he's tight he might even fold hands such as 88-99, AQ here which obv would be a great result.

But under most circumstances I'd fold this.

Bond18 · #6 05-09-2007, 05:13 AM

Yea registrar is right. Our stack is fairly awkward for 3 betting, be it with a 3X or a shove. I'm not sure how often he'll fold AQ (though it is sometimes) and to be honest, AJ sucks SO bad overall. If he seems solid with his opens, let it go.

JayPez · #7 05-09-2007, 05:29 AM

thanks for the replies

[ QUOTE ]

Somewhat of an out-of-the box idea is, and I usually don't suggest to min-reraise ever, but if he just saw you minraise OTB w/ AA, you could min-reraise him and get away the hand if he 4-bets. If he's tight he might even fold hands such as 88-99, AQ here which obv would be a great result.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very interesting idea i didn't think of, i like this as an option.

the only reason i min raised the aa, was the give the ss the idea that he had some fe. i normally never min raise, but he was an unknown so it was ok as a one off.

nath · #8 05-09-2007, 05:52 AM

I call but I love having position vs people I can hurt

JayPez · #9 05-09-2007, 06:10 AM

so i did puts some numbers for a push.

raising range 66+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,Qjo (14%)

calling range 88+,AQs+,AQo+ (5.6%)

ajo 31% equity vs calling range.

60% he folds i win pot (125*7 + 1250 + 2500 + 7100 = 11725) = + 7035
12.4% he calls i win (62857+11725 = 74582) = + 8949
27.6 i lose i lose 62857 = -17348

So push according to these ranges is - ev by 1363 chips.

the raising and calling ranges might be a still be a little loose, so its close but probably a mistake.

am i right in saying that if i had less chips then the push would become profitable? because i lose less chips when he calls? ah i'll run some numbers. interesting that..

60% he folds i win pot (125*7 + 1250 + 2500 + 7100 = 11725) = + 7035
12.4% he calls i win (40000+11725 = 51725) = + 6413
27.6 i lose i lose 40000 = -11040

if i had 40k this push becomes profitable + 2408 chips (he may also call lighter which increases our equity also in this spot)

60% he folds i win pot (125*7 + 1250 + 2500 + 7100 = 11725) = + 7035
12.4% he calls i win (50000+11725 = 51725) = + 7653
27.6 i lose i lose 50000 = -13800

50k stack still + 888 chips

60% he folds i win pot (125*7 + 1250 + 2500 + 7100 = 11725) = + 7035
12.4% he calls i win (57500+11725 = 69225) = + 8583
27.6 i lose i lose 57500 = -15870

now its -ev by 252 chips.

so the stack size of probably 55k makes the push profitable.

risk reward ratio yes?

seems like either call or fold, call does make sense as your 48.5% verses the range of the or's range (i set) and have position.

jp