Would you put your life on the line?

[john voight]

1/1

[private joker]

This whole setup sounds like a con to me. Some guy has $10M in a suitcase and he asks me to pick a number between 1 and 50, and then he's going to try to guess it... and if he guesses wrong I get the money? Come on, nobody would offer that unless he has some David Blaine way of figuring out the number you wrote down.

Forget about the dying part of it -- even if I didn't get killed if he guessed my number, I'd still be suspicious that this whole thing was a scam.

[nutsflopper]

[ QUOTE ]
This whole setup sounds like a con to me. Some guy has $10M in a suitcase and he asks me to pick a number between 1 and 50, and then he's going to try to guess it... and if he guesses wrong I get the money? Come on, nobody would offer that unless he has some David Blaine way of figuring out the number you wrote down.

Forget about the dying part of it -- even if I didn't get killed if he guessed my number, I'd still be suspicious that this whole thing was a scam.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just saw this thread, can't believe it took this long. PJ is right, it IS a scam. My cousin was propositioned with this scam and now EVERYONE knows what number he guessed. PJ, don't just forget about the dying part of the scam though, they do actually kill you as well.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This whole setup sounds like a con to me. Some guy has $10M in a suitcase and he asks me to pick a number between 1 and 50, and then he's going to try to guess it... and if he guesses wrong I get the money? Come on, nobody would offer that unless he has some David Blaine way of figuring out the number you wrote down.

Forget about the dying part of it -- even if I didn't get killed if he guessed my number, I'd still be suspicious that this whole thing was a scam.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just saw this thread, can't believe it took this long. PJ is right, it IS a scam. My cousin was propositioned with this scam and now EVERYONE knows what number he guessed. PJ, don't just forget about the dying part of the scam though, they do actually kill you as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

POTD.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't we do this thread once a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. We do it every time a Saw movie is released (which does seem pretty close to once a month).

[Shizzle12345]

[ QUOTE ]
I would do 1-10 for 5 dollars. Write down 6. If he says six, claim its a nine.

[/ QUOTE ]
haha im still laughing here, allthough he would probably trick you. He would say that he guessed 6 and then you say its a 9, and then he will say LOLOTRICKEDU WAS JUST TESTIN YOU, and he will shoot you.

[Gugel]

[ QUOTE ]
So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life.

0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X)

X = $490,000,000.

If you value your life at more than $490M, it's a -EV gamble. Personally, I thought for a while if I value my life at more than 490M$. Furthermore I think the varience in this game is too high for me to be comfortable, even if I value my life at less than that, and I walk away.

Same situation, with 5000 #s, and 100K in suitcase, is less varience but still not good enough for me IMO. So I guess I value my life higher than that. If you make the #s 10x (i.e. make required value life to breakeven around $5B) I might reconsider).

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I often think about life's problems in terms of EV, I don't think it applies itself particularly well in this scenario.

You win $10M 49 times and lose your life 1 time ($490M Sklansky bucks). The EV of this situation is equal to winning $10 billion 1 time, and losing your life 19 times (~$500M Sklansky bucks).

While someone might consider $10M if they have only a 2% chance of dying, it would be idiotic to consider $10B for a 95% chance of dying (even though they are technically the same EV)

[Henry17]

To talk about this problem in terms on EV doesn't really make sense unless you first apply a utility function. The utility value of the $10M is critical.

When I was 18 I would have gone for it because $10M would have greatly improved my life. Today I wouldn't go for it because $10M does not have the same effect on my life. If the choice is +EV or -EV is relative to how much of an impact $10M has on someone's life.

[Mr_Moore]

To you who answer yes. Would you perhaps change your mind if you were in a lineup with 500 people and you were the last one and you had just witnessed 20 deaths?

[Henry17]

If there had been 20 deaths I'd get suspicious since the guy is guessing correctly at twice the expected rate.

If there has been 10 deaths then it wouldn't change anything.