Can I win $30/hour playing 25NL?

[KurtSF]

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No, I understand the maths of it completely. I know that it's possible to run good for hours on end, and to run bad for hours on end.

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Hahahahahahahahohohohehehehehaha ahem. That was a good laugh. Here, let me FYP:

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No, I understand the maths of it completely. I know that it's possible to run good for months on end, and to run bad for months on end.

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Hours. That's a good one.

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If I'm not beating these tables for at least $3 an hour long term, I'm a Dutchman.

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Granted, its pretty established that your winrate can skyrocket when one or two tabling, and conversely get squelched when massively mutitabling (just ask Carter). But one table 10NL for $3 an hour? That's like 50ptBB/100.

I claim you're a Dutchman.

But even so, if you're one tabling and beating the games this bad, move up. 20x or 30x bankroll limitations don't apply if (1) you are this good and (2) you can reload. So start moving up and see for yourself how it goes. If you keep crushing, heyyyyoo!

[CityFan]

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What is your STD DEV for your sample size?

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Right, I'm going to run some checks on my hand history tonight and see.

Honestly, not everyone's sitting there with PT, HUD and number coming out of their ears when they play poker.

[CityFan]

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Stop the hating, I would say u need atleast 6 tables to get that winrate out of 25nl. My suggestion is that u start practising playing more and more tables at the same time, it isn't too hard to play 6 at a time, and I would also suggest to buy some hardware if u dont have proper gear, 19" monitor atleast and a fast mouse/mousepad. Some of the new mice on the market like the laser and those can be pretty bad for multitabling if u have to move the mouse fast. (just my experience).

I Used to be a progamer and I can play 15 fr tables at once if I have to and I would recommend old microsoft optical mouse.
like Microsoft intellimouse 3.0 or optical 1.1

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Thanks, that sounds do-able.

I appreciate that my winrate (in BB or bb/100 terms) will drop when I move up a level, and that it will probably drop further the more tables I play.

I used a quality optical mouse in when I was a futures trader (in a previous life) so I know what a good mouse is worth!

[KurtSF]

CityFan, I hope diebitter makes an appearance in this thread. While most of us plug in our HUDs and fire up 8, 9, 12 tables to get our hourly rate up, he is xpert at focusing on one table and getting a /100 winrate that drives the rest of us nuts.

Its possible, but I still think you may be from the Netherlands.

[CityFan]

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Granted, its pretty established that your winrate can skyrocket when one or two tabling, and conversely get squelched when massively mutitabling (just ask Carter). But one table 10NL for $3 an hour? That's like 50ptBB/100.

I claim you're a Dutchman.


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Perhaps the one-tabling is the thing that's misleading me, because when I've experimented with multitabling in the past I've not played anywhere near as well. I was assuming that I'd learn to play as well two- or four-tabling, but maybe that's unreasonable.

If you've not one-tabled for a while you should try it. In fact, one table 10NL for an hour or two and let me know how it goes!

[raistlinx]

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What is your STD DEV for your sample size?

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Right, I'm going to run some checks on my hand history tonight and see.

Honestly, not everyone's sitting there with PT, HUD and number coming out of their ears when they play poker.

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I understand that. But you claimed to be the math guy and yet you are making claims (granted "conservative") on the validity of win rates given a small sample size without having done the math to determine how large a sample size you actually needed. This is not how math is done.

Since you are new to poker why don;t you start by asking some established posters what kind of a STD DEV they observe and then calculate how many hands you need to be within your chosen confidence interval on your win rate?

As a base line, assuming a STDDEV of 40ptBB/100 hands you need something like 614,000 hands to be 95% confident your true winrate is with in 1ptBB/100 of the observed winrate.

So honestly, 2,000 hands tells you absolutely nothing.

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stop the hating, I would say u need atleast 6 tables to get that winrate out of 25nl. My suggestion is that u start practising playing more and more tables at the same time, it isn't too hard to play 6 at a time, and I would also suggest to buy some hardware if u dont have proper gear, 19" monitor atleast and a fast mouse/mousepad. Some of the new mice on the market like the laser and those can be pretty bad for multitabling if u have to move the mouse fast. (just my experience).

I Used to be a progamer and I can play 15 fr tables at once if I have to and I would recommend old microsoft optical mouse.
like Microsoft intellimouse 3.0 or optical 1.1

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, that sounds do-able.

I appreciate that my winrate (in BB or bb/100 terms) will drop when I move up a level, and that it will probably drop further the more tables I play.

I used a quality optical mouse in when I was a futures trader (in a previous life) so I know what a good mouse is worth!

[/ QUOTE ]

lol...i don't know what to say. no insult to you cityfan, but i feel like i'm in a not so funny joke.

i know many traders (i am in finance). either you make it, or you're out (previous life?) if you make it, you're rich, if not, you're out and broke.

please tell me you didn't make it. because if you made it, and are playing NL10, i'm not sure i can believe you...

1. the money is too small
2. the money is too small
3. the money is too small.

[KurtSF]

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So honestly, 2,000 hands tells you absolutely nothing.

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Honestly, if you do maths, you should run some numbers like raistlin's. You say "2000 hands, 50ptBB/100 winrate!" but we hear "I played poker online".

[CityFan]

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What is your STD DEV for your sample size?

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Right, I'm going to run some checks on my hand history tonight and see.

Honestly, not everyone's sitting there with PT, HUD and number coming out of their ears when they play poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand that. But you claimed to be the math guy and yet you are making claims (granted "conservative") on the validity of win rates given a small sample size without having done the math to determine how large a sample size you actually needed. This is not how math is done.

Since you are new to poker why don;t you start by asking some established posters what kind of a STD DEV they observe and then calculate how many hands you need to be within your chosen confidence interval on your win rate?

As a base line, assuming a STDDEV of 40ptBB/100 hands you need something like 614,000 hands to be 95% confident your true winrate is with in 1ptBB/100 of the observed winrate.

So honestly, 2,000 hands tells you absolutely nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said I was a mathematician to give some context to the situation, not because I wanted to be mathematical in this thread. I could have asked what a typical S.D. was and gone away and done some calculations, but instead I asked for opinions. The I was amazed how conservative they were!

Anyway, do you think 40ptBB/100 IS a common standard deviation?

Over 2000 hands that would make the standard error in the mean WR 8.9ptBB/100. But say over those 2k hands I have been winning at $5/hr, which I make around 40ptBB/100 at 10NL (60 hand per hour). Then all of a sudden our confidence interval is about 20-60ptBB/100 (or $2.50 - $7.50).

So you see why I say I am beating this game for $3/hour?

btw, what makes you think I am new to poker? The only thing I am new to is thinking about poker as income.

[CityFan]

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lol...i don't know what to say. no insult to you cityfan, but i feel like i'm in a not so funny joke.

i know many traders (i am in finance). either you make it, or you're out (previous life?) if you make it, you're rich, if not, you're out and broke.

please tell me you didn't make it. because if you made it, and are playing NL10, i'm not sure i can believe you...

1. the money is too small
2. the money is too small
3. the money is too small.

[/ QUOTE ]


I traded for nine months or so and made a consistent profit (certainly more than acceptable to the company).

I quit because I was

a) bored out of my mind
b) smoking far too much dope and in a very bad place

That was four years ago: I have since blown all the money I left with (and learned my lesson).

I wouldn't go back, that's why I am about to start a PhD.

Up until now I have only played poker for fun.