NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?

[lazeeesunday]

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $40.99
UTG+1: $43
Hero: $60.10
Button: $38.01
SB: $57.69
BB: $85.05

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($6.5, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $15</font>, Hero?!?!?

So - what's my play here? Fold, push or just call?

Villian is pretty TAG and occasionally plays back against me.

[ihtfp]

This is a pretty tough spot IMO, so I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks. I don't think you can fold with top two here...but there are a lot really solid draws out so you don't want to play the rest of the hand with three players.

I think really your only option is to push. Fold equity is probably pretty good and hands like AA, KK, maybe even AQ will call. I think QQ or pocket tens would have re-raised you preflop (and are less likely since you already hold them), so you are really only losing badly to 33. You are a marginal (~20%) dog to KsJs/Js9s. I think the fold equity and the chance to stack AA, KK (on the off chance they were played like this preflop) makes this push +EV.

[lazeeesunday]

Yeh that was a similar to what I was thinking and without disturbing the discussion of theory on this, I will say I did push.

[limit refugee]

Only hand he has that beats you is 33, or a not likely 1010. Lotta draws he can be raising with, and lots of cards you don't wanna see on the turn...Pushtastic spot for me.

[sippin_criss]

Yeah really easy shove for me, I can't imagine folding this, and if you're not folding shoving is the only move.

[gimmetheloot]

You must, MUST shove.

[IceMuncher]

I push without a specific read telling me otherwise.

[lazeeesunday]

[ QUOTE ]
You are a marginal (~20%) dog to KsJs/Js9s.

[/ QUOTE ]

On a re-evaluation I'm actually exactly 50/50 with KJs and J9s and ahead of AJs so its really only a set I'm a dog to here... Hmmm keeps looking more and more like a push situation!

[ihtfp]

Hmmm...I guess if he does make his straight or flush you do have (4 outs)x(2 streets) = ~16% to make your boat, which closes the gap to 50/50 and makes the push look even more attractive. Nice point.

[Jigsaws]

Push for sure.