Help me define a range so I can decide between call or fold.

RonFezBuddy · #1 08-03-2007, 02:22 AM

This is from the stars 55k 10R+.

Got moved to this table about 15 hands ago. Villan was active showing down a decent hand as well as trying to make a move with Q10 on a dry board. I wouldn't classify him as aggressive but definitely capable of restealing.

My image is probably slanted towards aggressive. I've taken a few pots uncontested and I had to fold to a resteal from the bb when I was on the button about 4 hands ago.

I debated calling here for a long time but I had trouble putting him on a range. It'll cost me 27.5k for a pot of about 49k.

If I had a better sense of what to put him on I think deciding to call or fold would have been easier.

What range do you typically assign here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t69243)
Hero (t76813)
Button (t99580)
SB (t67022)
BB (t36800)
UTG (t23539)
UTG+1 (t81220)
MP1 (t190488)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises to t9000, 2 folds, BB raises to t36500, Hero?

swede554 · #2 08-03-2007, 02:49 AM

Given your description of the situation I'd say any pair, A7+, KJ+, and a maybe few random resteal bluff hands thrown in as well.

Rocco · #3 08-03-2007, 04:00 AM

A Swede thinks swede554 comes pretty close in his attempt to assign a range. It's rather difficult. A person who has decided to re-steal could obviously have ATC, but the given range is a good one to use.

Soulman · #4 08-03-2007, 04:37 AM

Villain needs to raise tighter than 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ for this to be a fold (you need about 1.8:1 pot odds to call) from a pure odds perspective.

If you do call and lose, you're down to about 10 BBs and in push-fold mode. If you fold, you still have 22 BBs and some room to steal. Calling and winning puts you at like 37-38 BBs and plenty of room to abuse the table. I don't think table situation particularly warrants a fold here.

I really doubt he's reraising you tighter than the range I gave above, so it's a call. That being said, if he's decent he should be restealing tighter here due to his smallish stack...but I still think his range is wider than the one given.

RonFezBuddy · #5 08-03-2007, 09:49 AM

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if he's decent he should be restealing tighter here due to his smallish stack

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Soulman, can you explain what you mean here? The way it reads is that if he's decent he would resteal with a stronger hand. I would expect that if he's decent he should recognize that I am stealing with a wider range and thus widen his range.

Did I read you wrong or do I have the concept wrong?

tomek322 · #6 08-03-2007, 10:01 AM

Going from pot odds I guess it's a call? But at best you are a coin flip at worse you're dominated. I would just muck and keep the chips.

black666 · #7 08-03-2007, 10:56 AM

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Going from pot odds I guess it's a call? But at best you are a coin flip at worse you're dominated. I would just muck and keep the chips.

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If the pot odds and villain's range dictate a call, I call all day long. You need every edge you can get...

tomek322 · #8 08-03-2007, 11:06 AM

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Going from pot odds I guess it's a call? But at best you are a coin flip at worse you're dominated. I would just muck and keep the chips.

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If the pot odds and villain's range dictate a call, I call all day long. You need every edge you can get...

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But honestly what edge are we getting here? I think we lose 29k more here most of the time. I know if we run it a thousand times we win 1.3 chips against his range(which is subjective)... whatever. he shows up with broadway card here more often that 77-TT. I would rather have 22 than QJ in this spot.

valenzuela · #9 08-03-2007, 11:23 AM

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Going from pot odds I guess it's a call? But at best you are a coin flip at worse you're dominated. I would just muck and keep the chips.

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If the pot odds and villain's range dictate a call, I call all day long. You need every edge you can get...

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But honestly what edge are we getting here? I think we lose 29k more here most of the time. I know if we run it a thousand times we win 1.3 chips against his range(which is subjective)... whatever. he shows up with broadway card here more often that 77-TT. I would rather have 22 than QJ in this spot.

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I would rather have KK than AQ in this spot, however that doesnt make folding AQ correct.

McMelchior · #10 08-03-2007, 11:48 AM

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But honestly what edge are we getting here? I think we lose 29k more here most of the time.

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You are absolutely right. Applying SoulMan's range villain is winning 60.6% of the time. Our edge comes from the fact, that the 39.4% of the time we're winning we're being paid hansomly for it: We win net 49,400 chips for the cost of only 27,500 chips, getting paid 1.8:1 on a 1:1.5 shot. You can also say, that if we call our pot equity is 30,500 chips for the investment of 27,500 chips ... that's a net gain of 3,000 chips or more than 10%.

Now, if you think your skill advantage is big enough (under the actual circumstances) to give up such an edge, than you're a better player than I am.

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[...]his range(which is subjective)...

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Exactly! This is the subjectivity (or one of them) that makes the difference between good and not so good players - the ability to put opponents on realistic ranges and to act according to those. If your point is that the margin of error in the estimation potentially exceeds the edge from calling, then again you might be right, but in the long run our error should level out and the net result will be correct. Tournament poker is about the long run, and it's about improving your reads. And it's exactly in the strive for this improvement RonFezBuddy has made this post, for the community to discuss what a good and realistic range is.

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[...] he shows up with broadway card here more often that 77-TT

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Yes, that's correct. This obvious fact has been incorporated in the calculation of our equity. That's how PokerStove works, and if you were to figure our equity out by hand you'd do the same.