Help me define a range so I can decide between call or fold.

[tomek322]

I get the following with soulman's range.

Hand 0: 34.584% 32.83% 01.75% 61272255 3275417.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 65.416% 63.66% 01.75% 118818047 3275417.00 { 77+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+ }

[RonFezBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
I get the following with soulman's range.

Hand 0: 34.584% 32.83% 01.75% 61272255 3275417.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 65.416% 63.66% 01.75% 118818047 3275417.00 { 77+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case then i get:

Amount Lost -27500
Amount gained 49500
Equity to win 0.345
Equity to lose 0.655
EV: (.345*49500) + (.655 * -27500) = -935

And this is where hand reading is so important because if you do the same calculation with 55 and 66 as part of his range EV swings positive

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.184% 34.57% 01.61% 71630592 3337667.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 63.816% 62.21% 01.61% 128882858 3337667.00 { 55+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+ }

Amount Lost -27500
Amount gained 49500
Equity to win 0.355
Equity to lose 0.635
EV 110

So, is there anything useful I can read to help me get better with assigning ranges? I typically try to pay attention at the table and put people on ranges while out of hands as well as while involved. However it would be nice to read expert views on the subject.

[McMelchior]

Oops, my mistake... I'd included all pair. Here's the correct calculation based on SoulMan's range of 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ (and this time I pasted and copied - since we all seem to get it wrong):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.162% 34.72% 00.44% 50540007 637509.50 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 64.838% 64.40% 00.44% 93730814 637509.50 { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }

Obv. our equity goes down to .351 x (29,400 +25,500) = 27,040

Which of course is less than the 27,500 it costs us to call, making a fold correct.

But me feeling is, that the issue tomek is addressing is "how small can your edge be for a call to be correct"?

This far from the FT (which is relevant since $EV and cEV apparently significantly deviates from each other near or on the FT) with less than 10 BB left I'd take a EV neutral gamble each time.

With somewhat more than 20 BB I's focus on how many BB I'm left with if I lose ... and if it's more than 10 I'd probably still take an EV neutral proposition.

With much more to lose I believe I might be sacrificing up too much manuevering capability on the alter of variance by taking a perfectly EV neutral propistion, and I'd be looking to gain at least a couple of BBs to call.

[Stumpy]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain needs to raise tighter than 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ for this to be a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Ron, you've said you were pretty aggressive, and had folded to a re-raise before.

You raised from the CO and the BB shoved for 12BBs. I don't think his range is anywhere near as tight as that break-even range above. I certainly don't think he's folding AT, A9s, 66 or 55. I can easily believe any suited Ace or any pair as well.

Calling is probably only slightly positive, but you can afford it, and it should discourage people from playing back at you in the future, especially if you win this pot.

[RonFezBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain needs to raise tighter than 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ for this to be a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Ron, you've said you were pretty aggressive, and had folded to a re-raise before.

You raised from the CO and the BB shoved for 12BBs. I don't think his range is anywhere near as tight as that break-even range above. I certainly don't think he's folding AT, A9s, 66 or 55. I can easily believe any suited Ace or any pair as well.

Calling is probably only slightly positive, but you can afford it, and it should discourage people from playing back at you in the future, especially if you win this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my exact line of thought as I was playing the hand. I also considered what a nice stack I would be left with if I won (top 20 with about 150 left).

Another consideration...should we remove AA or KK from his range because perhaps he would raise a smaller amount or just call to encourage action? Obviously he would like to get all the chips in there if he had such a monster and all he is doing with that raise is increasing his FE?

Thoughts?

[Stumpy]

You could discount it some, but I wouldn't remove it. (You can do this in PokerStove by pulling out a few suit combinations for AA and KK). Calling or some min re-raise would happen sometimes, but I don't think it's very common. He can barely raise without pushing.