15/30 river question

[Entity]

Online 15/30. The BB in this hand is an excellent player and we're playing several tables together. Statswise he's a 31/22/2.2 player over a 40k hand sample, average 5-handed. I open with KQo from MP and he calls in the BB. He folds his BB 43% of the time and his PT "check-raise flop" stat currently says (793/3670).

Anyway. The flop is TT8r, and he checkraises. I call intending to showdown unless a 9/7/J hits. I've folded semieasily to him and I think I tend to play a bit more passively than a lot of players at these limits, so he definitely could be aware of that.

Anyway. The turn is a 2 and I call quickly. The river is a Q and he bets again, fairly quickly.

Options are raise/fold, raise/call, and just call. Is it close?

[milesdyson]

since you're intending to showdown K high, shouldn't you raise it for a free showdown on the turn? this is definitely a spot where you can fold better hands (Ax, low pockets, maybe 8x), and this guy check raises the flop a lot at 21%. your image seems perfect for this play vs. calling down.

on the river, you should just call, right? i don't see him paying off against you with 55 or 87 and J9 just got there too. yeah i kind of ignored QJ and Q9...

[WillyT]

Well, I certainly wouldn't raise/fold. One of the only reasons to raise is if you think he might bluff 3bet or something spewy which I don't think is very likely.

I don't think you're missing any value by not raising. What hands in his range pay you off that you beat??? maybe just QJ and Q9 and Q8 right?

I'd just call the river.

-Bill

[danzasmack]

I really don't mind just calling in this spot vs. this type of player. A lot of times he's folding to your raise and I don't like raise/folding because your hand is kinda on the table (good Q, i put you on a hand like QJ) and he could get frisky depending on what he thinks of you.

On rivers like this vs. players like this i go into "he knows i know he knows" and stop myself and just call.

[danzasmack]

I also like miles' free-showdown raise on this board. Then I value bet the Q.

[gehrig]

doing a free showdown raise against a good player is really bad poker. unless he has reason to believe that u specifically dont raise for free showdown, u open up the doors for him to own u hardcore

[The Funky Llama]

seems like a call. J9 and Tx seem like a big part of his range and if hes good theres a good chance he folds 99 and worse to a raise since thats really not a spot you see a bluffraise so you'd be basically valueraising vs. QJ and Q9

[danzasmack]

[ QUOTE ]
doing a free showdown raise against a good player is really bad poker. unless he has reason to believe that u specifically dont raise for free showdown, u open up the doors for him to own u hardcore

[/ QUOTE ]

How though? When you FSDR here sure we know we have K hi but we look like a big hand. If this is typical play/something you do a lot then I'd say so. But this is something you can do now and then and i think this board is a good spot for it given hero's plan.

We know we have K hi. But say you are villain with a gutter or an 8. You c/r the flop and we raise the turn. 3-betting without something should be pretty bad against us.

[milesdyson]

especially given this:

[ QUOTE ]
I've folded semieasily to him and I think I tend to play a bit more passively than a lot of players at these limits, so he definitely could be aware of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MacGuyV]

Not a bad idea...I know I'm a lot more scared of turn raises vs. the pfr when the turn is a total brick than when it's a "scare card".