Probably stupid move, flop AI donk bluff

[josh_x]

$100 NL on party.

Button has been at the table for like 20 hands, seems kinda tightish.

Importantly he only has about $60 in front of him, i cover.

Anyway folded to him, he opens to $3, i have 66 in the sb and raise to $12. He min re-raises to $21. I call.

Flop is AJ2 rainbow, pot is about $42, he has 39 behind. i lead AI.

I'll give my thoughts after.

[pr0crast]

wtf? i fold to the $21 raise. you have no implied odds vs a short stack when you hit your set. yuck. even if he had a full stack, it's not that profitable of a call. he just got a 1/3 of your effective stack in preflop on a hand that only hits the flop like 1/8 times, and when it does hit, doesn't get paid off enough. you got outplayed.

[josh_x]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? i fold to the $21 raise. you have no implied odds vs a short stack when you hit your set. yuck. even if he had a full stack, it's not that profitable of a call. he just got a 1/3 of your effective stack in preflop on a hand that only hits the flop like 1/8 times, and when it does hit, doesn't get paid off enough. you got outplayed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree that i have no implied odds. I think that he has defined his hand as being pretty much AA, KK, QQ, JJ with TT and AKs as possiblities. Against these hands i think my implied odds are pretty good should i flop a set. I was getting 33:9 immediately, but if i can assume to get ALL of his stack (which i of course can't, but i think i can assume to get on average MOST of it) then i am getting 72:9, which equals 8:1 on a 7:1 shot of flopping a set.

Despite this i do agree that pf is on the bad side of marginal, but whatever, i was bored and felt like some action. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
which equals 8:1 on a 7:1 shot of flopping a set

[/ QUOTE ]

you said it yourself-- best case scenario you are pretty much even money. not g00t.

[josh_x]

Ok i accept that pf is a fold, i'm just defending how bad it is. What do you think about the flop?

[KLJ]

what do you think he has
if he thinks, what does he think you have

try that

[pr0crast]

i think he calls you more than half the time making the flop push bleh. i base this on a somewhat fudged pokerstove calc (this just tells us how often he beats ace no kicker with his range):
[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

380,160 games 0.116 secs 3,277,241 games/sec

Board: Ac Js 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.6658 % 58.06% 00.60% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 41.3342 % 40.73% 00.60% { A3s, A3o }

[/ QUOTE ]

[josh_x]

Further defending my pf call, and also getting some practice doing this kind of math, if:

(7/8)*(-9) = 7/8 times me losing my pf call
(1/8)*(33+x*39) = 1/8 times i win 33 + a fraction, x, of his stack

(7/8)*(-9) + (1/8)*(33+x*39) = 0 to solve for x,
(-63/8) + (33/8) + (39x/8) = 0
(39x - 30)/8 = 0
30 = 39x
x = 30/39

Therefore if i've done this right the pf is break even if i can assume to get ~3/4 of his stack when i flop a set. I think it's reasonable to assume i can. Then again sometimes i lose with a set, but also if i'm willing to make some moves like i did on the flop, or it comes like 457. So i think these things cancel each other out somewhat.

[ajmargarine]

Don't reraise a shortie without a hand you are willing to felt. So, just call his PFR and flop a set. Reraising to $12 there is silly.

[josh_x]

Thanke for the comment aj, what do you think about the rest?