Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?

[cero_z]

Hi Everyone,

Most of you can probably answer this in 2 seconds, so please bear with me and do so; I'm trying to learn.

Maybe 2000 players left, so we're at the bottom ITM rung with no bubble nearby. Blinds I think were 1k/2k or 800/1600, but I know my M was <9 and I had 52K (6K in the pot w/antes), which was about 5K above par.

I just got moved to a new table, and there were a few stacks of more than 100K. I've folded my first 3 hands, and the table seems normal for this stage: on the tight side, with the bigger stacks taking turns pressuring the others. It's folded to me in the CO with 76s, and I shove. Behind me are average stacks which I cover slightly, except for the SB, who has ~120K and hasn't played a hand of the 3 that I've seen. Is this a normal shove with an M of 9, or is it moving too light when my Q is above 1? What if I had 99 there? What about ATo or 66?

Thanks in advance.

[shaundeeb]

really bad fold M is misconstrued a lot and you analyze the shove which Im sure some math guy could do and your shove vs their calling ranges and you will be surprised what a -ev number it ends up to be with such a large stack. With 99 and your stack you should be 2.5-3xing whatever you think induces the largest shoving range 99 is a monster in LP in tourneys be happy to get your stack in if MP2 or later everytime with 99. I prob raise/call with A10o and 66 if the shover is SB or BB. fold to the others.

[cero_z]

Hi shaundeeb,

Did you mean, "Really bad. Fold."? Because it looks like you said my fold was really bad, though I in fact shoved. I assume you meant that the shove was really bad. Does that mean that there really are no hands you want to do this with when your stack is as big as mine, relative to the blinds, looking to get mostly folds? It definitely occurred to me that the antes skewed the pot a lot and that I was making an oversized raise for just 2K blinds, but then I figured, "They still need a pretty big hand (TT+, AK I thought) to call me here, and I'll be 25-30% to win if they do wake up with one of those." What do you think?

[shaundeeb]

sorry cero I am known for horrible english yes I meant the shove is really bad just fold. Their calling range is much wider then that in this game people are smarter and adjust to opening raises better and more frequent. They know you are never doing that with AA/KK and thus their calling range widens and it should. I think very few online players are ever folding 88/99 or AQs to your shove in your spot.

I don't have pokerstove that works anymore but even against that tight of a range I'd be surprised if you ran the numbers and that was a +EV shove. I understand why you are shoving and it's a fine shove with 8-12bbs but you are just too deep because their calling ranges aren't narrowing enough for it to be good.

[curtains]

Well you can just make a normalish raise and safely fold to a reraise. That's probably what I'd do in this spot. I definitely wouldn't push for over 20x the BB.

[grafyx]

This is very bad. If the table is tight, just make it 2.5x blind. You should take it down fairly often and get the same reward with much less risk. At this stage in an online tournament a 25-30bb stack is huge. You don't need to be operating in panic mode until you get inside 10bbs.

[cero_z]

OK I did some math myself, and it seems like if they call me with 6% of hands (88+,AQo+,AJs),I lose ~700 chips per time I do this. My assumptions: I win 6K 83% of the time that none of the 3 players to act pick up a top 6% hand, and I have 30% equity when they do. I guess I didn't account for when 2 players get in vs. me, but it seems like that would help me more than hurt me. I can't see them calling much looser than this, so it seems like somewhere between a slight loser and a pretty sizeable winner. Are my assumptions about their calling ranges way off? Or did I make a math error below?

Here's the math as simply as I can figure it:
If they call 3.5% (TT+, AK): (.90*6000)+(.028 *58000)+(.072*-52000)=3280.
If they call 6% (88+,AJs+, AQo+): (.83*6000)+(.05*58000)+(.165*-52000)=-700

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Well you can just make a normalish raise and safely fold to a reraise. That's probably what I'd do in this spot. I definitely wouldn't push for over 20x the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
OK I did some math myself, and it seems like if they call me with 6% of hands (88+,AQo+,AJs),I lose ~700 chips per time I do this. My assumptions: I win 6K 83% of the time that none of the 3 players to act pick up a top 6% hand, and I have 30% equity when they do. I guess I didn't account for when 2 players get in vs. me, but it seems like that would help me more than hurt me. I can't see them calling much looser than this, so it seems like somewhere between a slight loser and a pretty sizeable winner. Are my assumptions about their calling ranges way off? Or did I make a math error below?

Here's the math as simply as I can figure it:
If they call 3.5% (TT+, AK): (.90*6000)+(.028 *58000)+(.072*-52000)=3280.
If they call 6% (88+,AJs+, AQo+): (.83*6000)+(.05*58000)+(.165*-52000)=-700

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling range (top 6%) seems fine. Too lazy to do the math atm, seems fine at first glance.

[djk123]

In my opinion "M" is the most worthless and overused thing ever. You are much better off just using how many big blinds you have. It's basically never correct to open shove 20bbs in a regular mtt. raise 2-3x and open fold are much better than shove imo.