2nd hand of Mulligan AA

[JSchnett]

Full Tilt Poker Game #4070141940: The Sunday Mulligan (30657917), Table 57 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:08:31 ET - 2007/11/04
Seat 1: TheMadRaiser (3,050)
Seat 2: theniceswede (3,000)
Seat 3: jocelyne1 (2,970)
Seat 4: FuturePiece (2,970)
Seat 5: JSchnett (3,010)
Seat 6: Jadenali (3,000)
Seat 7: Buckohfive (3,000)
Seat 8: JGLaZe080 (3,000)
Seat 9: kilainstinkt (3,000)
JSchnett posts the small blind of 10
Jadenali posts the big blind of 20
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JSchnett [Ah Ac]
Buckohfive folds
JGLaZe080 calls 20
kilainstinkt has 15 seconds left to act
kilainstinkt folds
TheMadRaiser folds
theniceswede folds
jocelyne1 folds
FuturePiece folds
JSchnett raises to 110
Jadenali calls 90
JGLaZe080 calls 90
*** FLOP *** [8h 2s Js]
JSchnett bets 220
Jadenali calls 220
JGLaZe080 folds
*** TURN *** [8h 2s Js] [Kh]
JSchnett bets 480
Jadenali calls 480
*** RIVER *** [8h 2s Js Kh] [9c]
JSchnett checks
Jadenali has 15 seconds left to act
Jadenali bets 2,190, and is all in
JSchnett?

[lovedemdeuces]

This is so close. Blah.

I would probably call and vomit.

[ASPoker8]

even though the 9 is os, its still a pretty bad card vs his range, I don't think he's valueshoving a worse hand than AA often at all and it seems unlilkely for it to be a bluff..

i'd fold

[mikeJ]

Meh, I can't decide

There aren't many hands in his range that beat you, but you don't beat much either.

Sets/KJ almost certainly would've put a raise in before river and J9 has a hard time calling turn. Most likely hands that beat you are really specifically QTss and 98ss.

You beat whiffed spades, possibly T9, and rare strange [censored] and that's about it. But yea, people just don't turn pairs into bluffs that often.

[Pudge714]

Call. Spades whiffed and I don't think he will overbetshove with two pair. QT is such a small chunk of his range.

[bigballz]

ewww so close. It is the mulligan tho and people have amazed me on FTP today so I'd just tilt call and be right

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
ewww so close. It is the mulligan tho and people have amazed me on FTP today so I'd just tilt call and suck out on the ocean

[/ QUOTE ]

[d2themfi]

i fold, i think it is a pretty easy fold too

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
i call, i think it is a pretty easy call too

[/ QUOTE ]

[baltostar]

This hand is a good example of goals and reasonable expectations.

The appropriate times to massively scale risk on AA are pre-flop and flop. On the turn and river one should be wary of adding variance well outside of a reasonable expectation for unimproved AA.

Skilled dynamic hand readers can argue to death the ratio of hero ahead/behind but that is not how to make a decision in this hand.

Making the call puts your risk/stack ratio well beyond a reasonable expectation for unimproved AA on the river. Even if a slightly +EV opportunity is perceived, it is not a worth it from the standpoint of relative opportunity of stack utility.