lol kyro has a.....tumor?

[chim17]

Kyro please don't die.

[kyro]

KM called the doctor today because they were being dumb and sending me to the wrong office and whatnot. He told her that although the test is 90% accurate, he truly believes that it was a false positive, because everything else about the sample looked fine. I'm still nervous, and I'll have to wait until mid-next week to know more, but it's a little more comforting than before.

[sighing]

Just read this thread.. Good luck, and listen to the doctor when he says it's probably a false positive.

[Iron_Yuppie]

Yeah, the doctor wouldn't say it was probably a false positive unless he was almost sure it was a false positive, so that's good news.

As for the pain in your stomach, it's probably just an alien.

[KyrosMother]

Yes, KM is about as stressed out as any one person can be right now and got a little pissed off today.

It was bad enough that they told my 22-year old son over the phone that he tested positive for a tumor (while I was still trying to get home from Virginia), but then today we find out they sent him for another sample...but neglected to tell them they were not in that office today and by the time he got to where they were...it was too late.

Anyway, I must have scared them enough, because the doctor answered all my questions without kyro signing the infamous "yes, you can talk to my parents" form.

I will let kyro share with you whatever information he is comfortable sharing, but I just wanted to say we both greatly appreciate <u>everyone's</u> words of support. Sometimes they mean the most from the people you have argued with the most. I think one of the greatest things about POG is that despite the arguments or harsh words that may occur, everyone here truly cares about each other.

Thank you. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[VoraciousReader]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the doctor wouldn't say it was probably a false positive unless he was almost sure it was a false positive, so that's good news.

As for the pain in your stomach, it's probably just an alien.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think kyro has to worry about an alien.

Any self-respecting alien would find himself in kyro's skinny torso and go look for a pad with more elbow room.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

So glad you are likely to be ok. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[JaredL]

[ QUOTE ]
KM called the doctor today because they were being dumb and sending me to the wrong office and whatnot. He told her that although the test is 90% accurate, he truly believes that it was a false positive, because everything else about the sample looked fine. I'm still nervous, and I'll have to wait until mid-next week to know more, but it's a little more comforting than before.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Bayes' theorem.

Based on what I've googled on kidney cancers, they are quite rare in males and extremely rare in people under 50. Say they occur for 1 person our age in 1000 (it's probably more rare than that but given that you have some sort of kidney problem this might be reasonable to assume for you) and the test gives true positive 90% of the time, true negative 90%, and 10% each of false positive or negative.

The probability that you are positive for it given the test is (1/1000)(.9)/((1/1000)*.9 + (999/1000)*.1)) = 0.00893. So assuming the 1 in 1000 and that by the test being 90% accurate the doctor meant the true positive and negative rates, there is more than a 99% chance that it was a false negative. Even if you made it much more likely that you had it without the test, say 1 in 100 instead of 1 in 1000 (which is probably incredibly high), there would be over a 91% chance of it being a false negative.

[matrix]

Kyro not played with/talked with etc you much.

but all the best with this Kidney stuff.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[kyro]

Yeah, I understand Bayes' Theorem.

Hell, I better, I plan on being a [censored] actuary. Wouldn't that be embarrassing.

[aaronk56]

Man, I never pictured you as an actuary, [censored] or otherwise.