LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[sighing]

[ 0 ] FCBLComish voted for Stephen H
[ 0 ] fmxda
[ 0 ] FortFun voted for Stephen H
[ 0 ] Jeremy517
[ 2 ] Stephen H

[Stephen H]

I'm working my way through a lot of posts. A very long post is coming, but I'm not sure how long this is going to take me to write up. I'm not sure where it's going to lead me at this point, either.

Administrative note: I haven't been around for the lynching hour at all this game; I of course will be here for that tonight.

[Stephen H]

I really hope I'm not talking to myself here. I would hate to be putting together a huge freaking post just to have no one even reading the thread.

[FortFun]

I'm in and out, waiting to hear what you have to say and to hear from Jeremy.

[Stephen H]

I'd really like to hear from BOTH fmxda and Jeremy before I start posting what I'm finding, but I won't wait all day.
I will say I've read all of Jeremy's posts (yesterday) and I'm about halfway through fmxda's (I only skimmed his yesterday - 100+ posts makes for a long read).

[Jeremy517]

FCBL and Fortfun are supposedly peeked, so that would mean me, Stephen, or fmxda for the non-godfather wolf. Maybe it is fmxda, but I don't think he votes for Herbie on d1 after Gandalf came out if he's a wolf. I don't think he'd do that as a ruse.

So Stephen today and one of FortFun/FCBL tomorrow.

[Stephen H]

Jeremy: fmxda changed his vote to Zurvan 2 posts later, when Herbie changed his vote to Zurvan as well.
still think he doesn't do that as a wolf?

[Stephen H]

I'm thinking I was wrong yesterday. I had fmxda as clear for being on wolves a lot this game but then I really, REALLY looked at his posts - and he's not on wolves as much as he seems.

I'm not done reading him but I'm close and I'm convinced he has to be a wolf at this point.
I'll post what I found when I'm caught up. Less than 25 posts left of his to read.

[Stephen H]

Screw it, I'm not looking over the last two days or so - those are pretty fresh in everyone's minds and they're not nearly as useful as looking back at the beginning when things seemed "safe" to post because we didn't know any roles.

Here's what I found when reading fmxda. The more I read, the more I got sick remembering that I had him as "cleared" yesterday.
This is REALLY long, but I'm not leaving out anything at this point.

Looking at the day 1 after aaron claims gandalf. Note that Herbie was a wolf.

votes become 6/5/4 when km votes aaron. Aaron claims.
fmxda switches to herbie (he was on rich)
herbie switches to zurvan (he was on gt1t)
fmxda follows herbie to zurvan
now it's 6/5/6.
KM moves to zurvan, fcbl moves to zurvan. Jack moves to zurvan.
Zurvan moved to zurvan at the end of day.
..
Jeremy voted herbie a while ago (chuckles said it was late-ish, but I disagree and think it was a nice, safe wolf-vote that didn't really endanger herbie as much as it appears. However, it's a LOT more villagery than fmxda's vote that day, which was on Herbie for about a minute or so.
..
Good quote from Zurvan, to Herbie:
[ QUOTE ]
People were here 5 minutes ago, but your wolf buddies voted me instead of you, don't worry

[/ QUOTE ]
Note that Zurvan also nailed clown as a wolf and VR as a villager as he went down.
Who voted for Zurvan after the roleclaim, instead of herbie:
KM/Jack/Zurvan (known villagers)
fmxda/fcbl (still alive)
herbie (known wolf)

And it was fmxda's vote that made the bandwagon go that way.
---
Puts herbie on his wolf list day two, like he said. But where's the votes for him? It's easy to have wolves slipped onto your wolf list - his was richC/Vr/herbie/mark k /clown, puts some suspicion on dmk, clears jack kind of out of the blue (Nez was too, but Nez had inside info).
Aaron even later says "I can see youlisting 2 wolves if you're a wolf". Aaron was wrong about the wolves (thought it was VR and Rich), but right about the logic and the reasoning why.

He SAYS he was on herbie after day two. But Herbie was always his #2 choice...behind Rich. He voted rich almost exclusively; even on day 2 where he could have probably gotten a herbie wagon going over a rich or luckay wagon, he switched back to rich as often as possible, whenever anyone mentioned they might go rich. Even on day three when a Herbie wagon WAS GOING ON, he voted rich rich rich until the wagon moved off of Herbie. He helped bury TFG at that point...but TFG was a plain wolf and Herbie was SAURON. I think he threw TFG under the bus when he realized TFG had to go down eventually after the way the day had gone. The start of the next day he tried to rekindle the Chuckles wagon to get us "back on track" to lynching villagers, though.

Reading his posts days 2 and 3 it's like
HerbieHerbieHerbieHerbieHerbieHerbieVote RichCHerbieHerbieHerbie.
That's VERY suspicious with Herbie as his wolf partner and Rich as villager.
---
Yucky quote: (quoting goes fmxda/nez/fmxda)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm gonna put

Jack
FortFun
Nez

on my village list.


[/ QUOTE ]This is fantastic.

Masons?? [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes!!

I think between our overlapping wolf reads and these villagers we might be pretty accurate.


[/ QUOTE ]

As chuckles would say, blatent wolf kissing up to a villager.
---
Here's a sample of fmxda arguing with dmk about what the wolves did at night. Turns out fmxda was spot on. This quote seems like a decent explanation of the though process required to do what the wolves did - inside info here?
[ QUOTE ]
dmk,

1) The roleblocker won't be alive to block aaron forever.
2) Also, it is optimal to block/kill the top two Frodo suspects every night, instead of tying up a roleblock every night.
3) Gandalf WILL need to be killed at some point. Unless Frodo comes out, it would remain a 50% chance to kill Gandalf for the forseeable future.
4) The wolves cannot just order a kill on Gandalf without roleblocking anybody, and risk a 50% chance of peek.

[/ QUOTE ]
---
[ QUOTE ]
Important questions for gt1t:

Do you still think Herbie is a wolf?

Why did YOU take wdcbooks' offer at face value??

[/ QUOTE ]
During the Gollum Claimaments. He asked luckay about the face value thing too - but the is Herbie still a wolf question is more telling. I read this as "Is it safe to take Herbie off my wolf list yet, or is he still under suspicion?" Reading down a little further, I notice Nez hated this question too, although he wasn't explicit about why.
---
The night luckay got lynched was a huge mess. I hate reading too much into it. Suffice it to say that Herbie, Luckay, and fmxda were a big part of the noise going on. Fmxda voted for 3 or 4 people that night himself, but as I mentioned, he bounced onto Rich as often as possible.
---
Wolf list on Day 3:
RichC - VILLAGER
Herbie - WOLF
Mark - VILLAGER
Dustin - VILLAGER
Clown - WOLF
Jeremy - ???
He's basically taken VR off his list (because VR has lost heat from everyone but Nez at this point) and added Jeremy (who is gaining suspicion). Again, 2 wolves on the list. That's a very typical number for wolves making a list to have there.
---
[ QUOTE ]
I might add that being completely silent and devoid of useful posts is a much more effective tell on a 1st time player like RichC. compared to thebram, TFG and others.

[/ QUOTE ]
WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW
"Please use this tell to lynch the villager but ignore TFG the wolf k thx"

This is just too many different wolfy things for me to ignore. I admit it, I missed it on a skim through - I thought fmxda was voting Herbie all along, for example.

fmxda is the wolf, NOT ME.

[Stephen H]

Vote fmxda so sighing can see it.