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#12
05-15-2006, 08:55 AM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd fold the turn. Bet-folding the turn seems better than check-calling. [/ QUOTE ] Betting accomplishes nothing. True [/ QUOTE ] It folds air and keeps us from getting bluffed off the best hand. 
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#14
05-15-2006, 02:24 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
There are only a few players who can check the flop to rep a monster when they have JT. [/ QUOTE ] Who says people that check the flop with air are representing monsters? I don't get this assumption. I see people checking the flop with air all the time. It seems like nobody in this forum sees this phenomenon.
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#15
05-15-2006, 02:26 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
I think your range is way too small. He only has 30 hands on the guy and they are playing very shorthanded, high stakes poker, and he opened on the button. Hands like 97o and J6s are just as likely. [/ QUOTE ] Eh, I missed the part about it being 4 handed. As far as the button goes there was a thread not too long about the percentage of 40/20's being oblivious to position. So him being on the button MAY not be a factor and you have to take that into consideration. Then again most people do loosen up when it gets 4 handed. The 30 hand mark is a valid point but it's the only info we have to go off of and the pot is so freaking small i'll choose not to ignore it.
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#16
05-15-2006, 02:33 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
i like this play, for the same reasons discussed by DeathDonkey, in fact i won a hand yesterday when i used it (admittedly it was my first time doing so) and i had position [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])
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#17
05-15-2006, 02:41 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'd fold the turn. Bet-folding the turn seems better than check-calling. [/ QUOTE ] Betting accomplishes nothing. True [/ QUOTE ] It folds air and keeps us from getting bluffed off the best hand. [/ QUOTE ] If you bet you can be bluff raised, check/calling costs the same bets, but when you bet you will only put a bet in when behind. True
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#19
05-15-2006, 03:14 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
If you bet you can be bluff raised, check/calling costs the same bets, but when you bet you will only put a bet in when behind. True [/ QUOTE ] Check calling requires that he will bluff a LARGE % of the time when he doesn't have an A, K, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Those cards take up a large portion of the deck. So he has to be capable of bluffing with pretty much no hope of winning unimproved a significant percentage of the time he has trash. Knowing that information requires a read. If he is capable of bluffing the turn I think calling isn't such a bad play. To be honest I could be wrong about the turn. I'm just trying to debate the other side. To be honest I could be wrong I'm just trying to debate one side of it. I ran a pokerstove and I put villian in an either/or situation. He either had a monster (trips or better and PP's plus draw) or complete air. So if he steals 35% of the time and if plays both monsters or air this way 100% of the time we have enough equity to call the turn. Board: 2s 3h 5c As Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 58.4098 % 58.41% 00.00% { AA, 55-22, A7s+, A4s, K7s+, K5s, K3s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, A7o+, A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o } Hand 2: 41.5902 % 41.59% 00.00% { Kc6d } We have barely enough equity to call the river but I think he checks enough to turn this into a fold on the river. Still, with such a light read on the guy I think him betting the turn 100% of the time with air is a bold assumption. For all of you saying "it's close" would you mind showing me at least some rough calcs so I can understand your line of thought?
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