no hand, small pot, oh well

wheelz · #1 05-14-2006, 06:34 PM

villain is 40/17/.7 after 30 hands

100/200 4 handed
co folds, button raises, sb folds, i call in bb with K6o

flop 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
i check, button checks

turn A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
i check, button bets, i call

river Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
i check intending to fold if he bets

hmm... pretty dangerous

Spy Dog · #2 05-14-2006, 06:42 PM

I'd fold the turn. Bet-folding the turn seems better than check-calling.

Schizo · #3 05-14-2006, 06:52 PM

Eh I hate it when unknowns check the flop like that. I'd still bet the turn as I think a significant amount of time as people with those stats often check the flop with air. The ace can be a scare card for him too. Even if he has an ace he may just call since the 3 straight is on the board. If he doesn't have an ace you may get him to fold and avoid folding the best hand on the river.

DeathDonkey · #4 05-14-2006, 06:54 PM

I like it. River is close.

-DeathDonkey

Schizo · #5 05-14-2006, 07:05 PM

May I ask you why you like the turn play, and why you think it's close on the river?

If he has an Ace we do not have odds to draw unless you can make up 7 BB's on the river.
If he has a K we are out kicked.
If he has a Q we are screwed on the river so I don't see how it's close to calling.

Basically that leaves us ahead of high card J and T. Since he seems to be a 40/17 odds are rather high (at least in the 10/20) he doesn't play according to position. So that basically puts his hand range here at:

66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+

Therefore a 17% PFR leaves us beating J9s and JTs.

Not a whole lot of combo's there.

DeathDonkey · #6 05-14-2006, 07:17 PM

I think your range is way too small. He only has 30 hands on the guy and they are playing very shorthanded, high stakes poker, and he opened on the button. Hands like 97o and J6s are just as likely. The flop check by him is very strange. He either has a monster or absolutely nothing and he feels like this is a flop where the BB isn't going anywhere and/or he is going to get checkraised.

When the turn comes an ace and the BB checks again, he is pretty much obligated to bet with any hand given how likely it is the BB can't call. But notice its just about impossible for him to have an ace, because that's a good flop for an ace high hand, which has a gutshot in addition to often the best hand. So he either has something huge like a set, or a flopped wheel, or more likely, two cards between 5 and Ace. Now the river Queen isn't a great card for us, as its likely to hit many of those unpaired hands, and that's why I'm sure wheelz intended to check/fold the river. But it is close, because there are plenty of combos left of weird middle cards that have totally missed. The biggest problem I see is we have no kicker for our king high, and check/calling and losing to another king high would suck a lot.

-DeathDonkey

helpmeout · #7 05-14-2006, 09:48 PM

I find the flop check behind is normally an Ace wanting a cheap SD.

I dont understand why they do it I just expect an Ace.

wheelz · #8 05-15-2006, 05:52 AM

i had that in the back of my mind, but i don't see it happen much at the higher limits. that's a pretty sweet flop for ace high.

DD pretty much summed up my thoughts on this one. i'd rather let him bluff the turn with some random hand than bet and let him fold it, or possibly even get bluff raised. also, if he does have A4/set i don't give up my 4 outs. on the river i can't beat K/Q high, and i think it's gonna be tough for him to fire another barrel. i check/call the turn in a 3 bb pot on an 532A 2 flush board, the flush came in on the river... he's got to be worried that i've got something i'm intending to showdown or possibly even a flush.

Spy Dog · #9 05-15-2006, 08:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think your range is way too small. He only has 30 hands on the guy and they are playing very shorthanded, high stakes poker, and he opened on the button. Hands like 97o and J6s are just as likely. The flop check by him is very strange. He either has a monster or absolutely nothing and he feels like this is a flop where the BB isn't going anywhere and/or he is going to get checkraised.

When the turn comes an ace and the BB checks again, he is pretty much obligated to bet with any hand given how likely it is the BB can't call. But notice its just about impossible for him to have an ace, because that's a good flop for an ace high hand, which has a gutshot in addition to often the best hand. So he either has something huge like a set, or a flopped wheel, or more likely, two cards between 5 and Ace. Now the river Queen isn't a great card for us, as its likely to hit many of those unpaired hands, and that's why I'm sure wheelz intended to check/fold the river. But it is close, because there are plenty of combos left of weird middle cards that have totally missed. The biggest problem I see is we have no kicker for our king high, and check/calling and losing to another king high would suck a lot.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This all makes some sense, but the pot is 2 BBs!!!! Why bother? Trying to outplay someone OOP in a small pot is -EV.

Keepitsimple · #10 05-15-2006, 08:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This all makes some sense, but the pot is 2 BBs!!!! Why bother? Trying to outplay someone OOP in a small pot is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Im not going to comment on this specific hand since its pointless without a good read. But this statement is imo VERY wrong. You cant give up small pots as a default. Vs certain players that can be a 1BB mistake at least.