I Am Legend - movie betting

Cry Me A River · #1 11-23-2007, 08:23 PM

Historically, how many movies have opened for $50M+ in December? Or even close (including inflation adjustments)?

LOTR did $66M in 2001
Two Towers did $62M in 2002
Return of the King did $72M in 2003

So it's def possible, but, the bet is essentially that I Am Legend is the new LOTR? There's basically nothing opening against it, but still, unless Matchbook has some inside info (focus groups?) this seems like a sucker's bet. Does look very suspicious - Almost a bar stool pundit type bet (everybody agrees the line is ridic and the under is a lock... and everybody gets screwed).

brendanb438 · #2 11-24-2007, 01:09 AM

I do really enjoy how they misspelled Legend. Not as bad as some of the mistakes they have made in the past though for like 5 day lines listed as 3 day lines or something else silly.

hogua · #3 11-29-2007, 09:03 PM

King Kong and Narnia also opened in Dec with a $50MM+ opening weekend (Fri-Sun). Meet the Fockers opened at $46.1 MM in Dec 2004, which at today's ticket prices would put it over $50 MM as well.

The most current estimates I've seen have this title have it doing $51.2-57.0 MM in GBO for opening weekend.

Those are revised numbers, with the the prior estimates being slightly higher. So, the numbers are trending down, but just barely.

At the momment, it looks like this is expected to go over, but not by much.