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#11
07-02-2007, 05:04 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
Barry,I have to disagree with you here.Live,I think that your average player will check AQ and top set here 95% of the time.I play a hell of a lot more live than online,and my experience is that live, people will cbet virtually every time if they were the preflop raiser,no matter how dangerous and coordinated the board is.Whenever they check I get very wary indeed.
With the read you have on villain,I don't see how you can fold here.With your stack and the fact that only the two sets have you crushed.....think this is a must call.Also,I don't know how late or early this is in level 2,but you need to accumulate chips soon,and this might be the best spot you'll find. I agree with those who says that you probably lost the hand bc these hands usually aren't posted if we win. I still say this is a call though,my guess would be that you get outdrawn,he's got AK or something like that. 
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#12
07-02-2007, 06:01 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
[ QUOTE ]
your average player will check AQ and top set here 95% of the time [/ QUOTE ] While i agree to this in online donkaments. Given the "Overall he seems fairly solid as he's outmaneuvered a few players post flop" description, opponents seems competent or better. So I don't think AQ or sets are out of his range. Why would a tricky, loose player that is firing at a bunch of pots, all of a sudden check a flop after he was a PFR? That would be silly. He is firing at pots, so when he hits a monster his bet won't give anything away and will allow him to get paid off.
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#13
07-02-2007, 06:09 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
[ QUOTE ]
Am I missing some math? 750+1375+1375+1825=5325... you have to call 1825 more... 2.91:1. Sry not quite 3. [/ QUOTE ] You are pretty damn right! I must have had a blackout making two times in a row a false calculation. Yeah that pretty much means you can't get away from it. Even not against a topplayer. The only thing that still is in my mind is the fact that if villains is perfect 1st level thinker would mean that we had to lay this down if we only raised for a 1000, that raise of 1325 made us really potcommitted hehehe.
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#14
07-02-2007, 06:28 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] your average player will check AQ and top set here 95% of the time [/ QUOTE ] While i agree to this in online donkaments. Given the "Overall he seems fairly solid as he's outmaneuvered a few players post flop" description, opponents seems competent or better. So I don't think AQ or sets are out of his range. Why would a tricky, loose player that is firing at a bunch of pots, all of a sudden check a flop after he was a PFR? That would be silly. He is firing at pots, so when he hits a monster his bet won't give anything away and will allow him to get paid off. [/ QUOTE ] mmmm,when I think about it,you might be right here. I still think I'm right about the 95% thing,but only now saw that he'd been very active preflop. I would say this is very read dependent though. Not just how you think villain plays,but also what he thinks about you. Tome,I completely agree that it's very fishy when some aggro player suddenly checks here,but alot of players will see the check as a sign of weakness,not strenght and therefore bet w AJ or something in that range.
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#15
07-02-2007, 07:14 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
Your 30BB deep and you flopped a set in a raised pot. Taking any line which involves considering folding is awful without a big tell.
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#17
07-03-2007, 09:36 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
He also had 7K chips to start, so a loose player might be happy to gamble with 2 pair since you cant bust him. If he's got AQ you will still fill up a third of the time. When you have to get through over 2,000 runners with a lousy 3K chips to start you are not folding a set, unless its against a rock. He doesn;t fit the bill. Stick em in.
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#18
07-04-2007, 03:46 AM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] your average player will check AQ and top set here 95% of the time [/ QUOTE ] While i agree to this in online donkaments. Given the "Overall he seems fairly solid as he's outmaneuvered a few players post flop" description, opponents seems competent or better. So I don't think AQ or sets are out of his range. Why would a tricky, loose player that is firing at a bunch of pots, all of a sudden check a flop after he was a PFR? That would be silly. He is firing at pots, so when he hits a monster his bet won't give anything away and will allow him to get paid off. [/ QUOTE ] mmmm,when I think about it,you might be right here. I still think I'm right about the 95% thing,but only now saw that he'd been very active preflop. I would say this is very read dependent though. Not just how you think villain plays,but also what he thinks about you. Tome,I completely agree that it's very fishy when some aggro player suddenly checks here,but alot of players will see the check as a sign of weakness,not strenght and therefore bet w AJ or something in that range. [/ QUOTE ] tomek put it perfectly. and 95% w/ AQ and top set check here? overexaggerate much, sir? w/ your reads on villain, i quickly break my mouse button clicking all in. err, i mean i happily shove my stack in the middle.
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#20
07-06-2007, 05:20 PM
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Re: $1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?
PLEASE HELP
Member here Welladjusted06 has gone missing from las Vegas since 7/2/07 His name is Mike Holt If anyone her has seen him or played with him in this poker tournament please help here are a few links and there thread from another forum that is on . His family has contact the authorities and very worried http://www.sshomecinema.com/MIKE%20HOLT.doc http://forums.corvetteforum.com/show...post1560962760
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