Straight draw on the flop

[C.D.T.C.]

I'd shove here. The call preflop is standard for me. I would never call with kjo/kjs in MP1 against the other big stack. Besides that UTG+1 is probably folding a lot here because he's affraid of the other big stack. The calling of the other big stack doesn't look dat dangerous to me. On this board, when i hit i'd always raise because a lot of turn cards can make me question how good my hand is, so if he really hit he'll probably try to shut the pot down.
Your stack is fine to make this move.So push

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd shove here. The call preflop is standard for me. I would never call with kjo/kjs in MP1 against the other big stack. Besides that UTG+1 is probably folding a lot here because he's affraid of the other big stack. The calling of the other big stack doesn't look dat dangerous to me. On this board, when i hit i'd always raise because a lot of turn cards can make me question how good my hand is, so if he really hit he'll probably try to shut the pot down.
Your stack is fine to make this move.So push

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying you are wrong but I question the shove because:

1. Surely we have no FE here? What can MP possibly flat call twice here, the second time on a nasty board with action behind, but not call a push with from a much smaller stack getting 2:1?

2. If he does call, what are we ahead of?

I need to slow down and think when I play. I probably just push this because of my stack size etc. but I think a lot of my outs are outs to a split pot and I don't like the answers to these questions.

[C.D.T.C.]

I agree it's a tough spot but i do think you have FE. My calling range(if i were MP1)towards UTG+1 is pretty big, big implied odds, it feels like his last attempt to take the pot. He'll probably check on the turn and I could take the pot, so two flat calls from MP1 don't mean that much to me. I think a lot of players with a big stack are just waiting for the FT and are not waiting to play big pots. This is also a reason why I think a push will probably work. Sure they've invested in the pot but they're still both healthy, with their stacks they can pick easier spots to take down pots, picking up blinds, resteals etc.. This board looks really scary from their point of view, besides that you check-raised with two players to come. Losing to your push would definately hurt them. In this situation your hand is perfect. If you get called you've got outs, but you want them to fold now and I think there's a big chance they will.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm torn on the preflop call. Odds are so tempting here, just hate calling with 16bb stack. We fold postflop we will have 14bb stack.

Postflop this is either shove or fold. Pot is already like 24k and you have 28k. I'm thinking a shove isn't that awful with possibly 10 outs and a reasonable amount of times you win the pot here (maybe 30-40%).

JCM you're usually pretty quick with EV calcs. Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I tweaked this some. shove, 25% to win right here. 55%, one caller. 20%, 2 callers. Initial pf raiser top 25% and pf caller top 15% hand.

Converter seems to be screwed up as far as pot size. 4k + 4k + 4k + 1k + 525 = 13,525 before flop.

25% of the time we win 13,525 by shoving.

55% of the time we are against a top 15%:

128,700 games 0.047 secs 2,738,297 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.4254 % 55.25% 02.18% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 42.5746 % 40.40% 02.18% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }

20% of the time we are against a top 25% and a top 15% hand:

20,541,444 games 9.265 secs 2,217,101 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.8260 % 37.79% 03.04% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 33.6319 % 31.26% 02.38% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 25.5421 % 23.12% 02.42% { 44+, A3s+, K8s, QTs+, A7o+, K9o+, QJo }

That would give us:

.25%(13,525) + .55(.57(75,327) + .43(-27,956)) + .20(.40(97,393) + .60(-27,956)) =

3,381 + .55(42,936 - 12,021) + .20(38,957 - 16,733) =

3,381 + 17,003 + 4,444 = 24,828

So, shoving here is HUGELY +EV.
Notice that with 0,1 or 2 callers each has a positive expectation, so that with all the dead money in the pot, the only way any # of callers would have a negative expectation would be if we narrowed their ranges down to hands that only are ahead of us. A shove here has a very profitable expectation.


If somebody doesn't mind checking behind, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

Okay, I tweaked this some. shove, 25% to win right here. 55%, one caller. 20%, 2 callers. Initial pf raiser top 25% and pf caller top 15% hand.

Converter seems to be screwed up as far as pot size. 4k + 4k + 4k + 1k + 525 = 13,525 before flop.

25% of the time we win 13,525 by shoving.

55% of the time we are against a top 15%:

128,700 games 0.047 secs 2,738,297 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.4254 % 55.25% 02.18% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 42.5746 % 40.40% 02.18% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }

20% of the time we are against a top 25% and a top 15% hand:

20,541,444 games 9.265 secs 2,217,101 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.8260 % 37.79% 03.04% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 33.6319 % 31.26% 02.38% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 25.5421 % 23.12% 02.42% { 44+, A3s+, K8s, QTs+, A7o+, K9o+, QJo }

That would give us:

.25%(13,525) + .55(.57(75,327) + .43(-27,956)) + .20(.40(97,393) + .60(-27,956)) =

3,381 + .55(42,936 - 12,021) + .20(38,957 - 16,733) =

3,381 + 17,003 + 4,444 = 24,828

So, shoving here is HUGELY +EV.
Notice that with 0,1 or 2 callers each has a positive expectation, so that with all the dead money in the pot, the only way any # of callers would have a negative expectation would be if we narrowed their ranges down to hands that only are ahead of us. A shove here has a very profitable expectation.


If somebody doesn't mind checking behind, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ] I think the math is probably good, but I just can't agree with these assumptions. I think 25% folding is probably a bit high, but may be all right. But, if we are called by one caller, we are not going to win 57% of the time. No way. And if we get called by 2 callers, we are not going to win 37% of the time. If we get called, we are going to be a dog. But it still might be +cEV.

[whynot?]

m of 3, almost assuredly behind on if not both, minimal fold equity - even hitting draw may leave you behind with no chance

look for a better place - fold in a heartbeat

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
m of 3, almost assuredly behind on if not both, minimal fold equity - even hitting draw may leave you behind with no chance

look for a better place - fold in a heartbeat

[/ QUOTE ] My M will be about 8 if I fold. If I had an M of 3, I would be calling this all day, [censored] FE.

[whynot?]

sorry - obv its an m of 8 - but i do fold