LO8: Gross Hand - Fold the flop?

[jschell]

UTG is really LAG/bad. Is there anywhere that I should lose this hand before the river? Maybe fold to the 3-bet on the flop? I realize now that I should have folded the river, but I was a little stunned at how gross the duece was.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game (6-max)
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $6</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (13SB, 3 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 13SB)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO caps</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12.5BB, 3 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 6.5BB, Sidepot 1: 6BB)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG is all-in $4</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG calls all-in $2</font>, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (18BB, 1 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: 6.5BB, Sidepot 1: 10.5BB, Sidepot 2: 1BB)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 20BB

[Rush17]

Why would you fold the flop?

If I'm reading this correctly, the turn sequence seems to be off because, first the UTG bets and is all-in, and then when the action came back to him for a raise, it looked like he still had a few chips left. But anyway, not that it matters much because with the NL draw+ the 2 pair (which, if they both have straights then you'd be drawing live for the FH), plus you also held a flush draw (which might be good enough if it hits as well)so I think you need to make the call on the turn for sure. Not to mention, that, once the UTG player bets his last ~$4 on the turn, at least you know that it's not going to be a raising war and you'll get to see the river rather cheaply. You have too much in the pot at this point to fold anyway so folding for 1 1/2 bets would be a mistake.

You stated that you thought the UTG was a poor player (and be that as it may), but I think the player in the CO should be your main concern, as he was the one who not only raised the flop, but he also raised the turn on a coordinated board while there was still no low available. So, unless he's overly aggressive, I'd likely read him for the straight (or at least a set). I'll admit, that, when someone plays the flop really hard, that it doesn't always allow us to define a players holding because it's still too early to tell and players like to press all sorts of draws at that stage (NL draws, 2 pair, etc.). But, if he's still pressing this hand on the turn with that board, I think you need to fold the river. There's really not much you can beat, you have no low, and the fact that there was a side pot is not relevant to you because the player(CO) who still has chips is the one who seems to be scooping you.

[Fiasco]

If neither of them has a draw to a boat and neither has an A2 then you actually have 37.5% equity which would be enough for you to initiate further betting threeway and is more than enough to call with (especially given that the pot was already big preflop and one of the two players whipsawing you will be all in shortly).

So flop and turn are easy calls, and the river is an easy fold, especially since youre going to get to see the guys hand anyway.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anywhere that I should lose this hand before the river?

[/ QUOTE ]jschell - Hard to say from here, but I generally would hang in there.[ QUOTE ]
Maybe fold to the 3-bet on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]No. Well... maybe if you could see the double bet coming on the turn with UTG managing to get all-in.

You had some bad luck on the hand. It happens.

I don't like it much when my opponents manage to get all-in before the river, and especially early in the hand. Seems to me that I miss the opportunity to possibly outplay them when they're all-in. I would not give SB as good an opportunity to go all-in by not raising before the flop. I don't really fault your pre-flop raise, but I don't think it served you well.

What a wild bunch! UTG bets this flop. And then CO raises and the betting is eventually capped. Wow!

I try to put my opponents on cards and then I try to play accordingly. Do these guys both have the ten-high-straights they're representing after the flop? I suppose it's possible, but somehow I'm skeptical. I'd want to know them better before judging, but at this point I'm skeptical. I'd wonder if they were playing as a team if they didn't both have ten-high straights.

As Rush has already pointed out, there's a discrepancy in your accounting of the third betting round. I'm assuming that UTG also gets all-in. If so, you're somehow playing a drawing hand with only one customer to possibly pay you off on the river when you make your draw! Yet because of the size of the pot, you're more or less stuck in the hand. I agree with you that it's not a good place to be and you're correct to look for a place you could have gotten out. But there really isn't any. Just an ill advised pre-flop raise, coupled with some bad luck.

[ QUOTE ]
I realize now that I should have folded the river, but I was a little stunned at how gross the duece was.

[/ QUOTE ]It's only one more bet. I'd call just because of the size of the pot.

The table style of play in this game does not seem very similar to the play in my own games. If this is a representative hand, the level of aggression is much greater than in my games. I think that's at least partly because of the limit on the number of players at the table (six max). Do you usually get pounded on like this? Maybe it's lucrative, but it doesn't sound like much fun to me. To each his own, I suppose.

Buzz

[jschell]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really fault your pre-flop raise, but I don't think it served you well.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you say this just because it gives the SB an opportunity to get all in? What if everyone was fully stacked?

You don't advocate raising much p/f. I raise a lot more p/f in the 6-max games because flops are usually contested 3-way and it is much easier than in the 9 handed games to scoop pots by driving the other players out through aggression. Do you disagree with this strategy?

[ QUOTE ]
As Rush has already pointed out, there's a discrepancy in your accounting of the third betting round.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG must have had $6 left at the beginning of the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I try to put my opponents on cards and then I try to play accordingly. Do these guys both have the ten-high-straights they're representing after the flop? I suppose it's possible, but somehow I'm skeptical. I'd want to know them better before judging, but at this point I'm skeptical. I'd wonder if they were playing as a team if they didn't both have ten-high straights.

[/ QUOTE ]
They ended up having 9-high and 10-high straights respectively.

[ QUOTE ]
you're more or less stuck in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, that's what I thought. It was just a huge pot that I managed not to get any part of.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you usually get pounded on like this?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, the games are usually fairly passive. UTG seemed to be a catalyst for action. He was very laggy and was showing down some very suspect (or just downright bad) hands.


PS - Apologies for my other thread, obv it was out of frustration and pointless. I've asked the mods to delete it. Barring that I won't post in it anymore so it'll die on it's own.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you say this just because it gives the SB an opportunity to get all in?

[/ QUOTE ]jschell – (1) Especially because the raise gives SB the opportunity to get all in, I don't think you should raise before the flop. (2) But even without that possibility, I don't like raising before the flop with A268 much, because that starting hand is not particularly good, even though it does have two strong features (the ace-deuce and the suited ace). The two middle cards are a liability. Although A268d is certainly very playable from any position, it is flawed.

(3) I don't like raising with it much from any position partly because you tend to give the nature of your hand away with the pre-flop raise. However you play, if you have never in your life raised with ace-deuce and raise a lot with other holdings, some of your opponents will put you on ace-deuce, at least tentatively, when you raise before the flop. If they’ve seen you raise with other hands, perhaps ace-trey, ace-four, or ace-ace, but never with ace-deuce, they’ll think, “Maybe this is the time.” And then depending on the ensuing action, they’ll be likely to play you for ace-deuce, exactly what you do have. (I’m not implying you should never raise with ace-deuce, but when I raise with ace-deuce, it’s usually in a situation where somehow I simply don’t care if some of my opponents put me on ace-deuce or not. (But usually I do care).

(4) I don't like raising from UTG because you tend to push people out of the pot in a situation where you should be trying to pull them into the pot. You really should not want to knock out worse lows or non-nut flush draws with the hand. You make money with this hand by collecting from ace-trey lows and king flushes. You want those guys seeing the flop and then chasing when the flop favorable for you.

(5) And you still need to get a favorable flop. Without a favorable flop, it's important to be able to get out of the hand cheaply. Otherwise you dribble your profits away.

• However, even with the drawbacks to your starting hand, you're likely to have one of the better starting hands for this deal, and thus from that standpoint the pre-flop raise doesn't seem absolutely terrible, assuming your opponents will call with worse starting hands.

[ QUOTE ]
What if everyone was fully stacked?

[/ QUOTE ]Then the pre-flop raise would be better, but still not as good, in my humble opinon, as limping.

[ QUOTE ]
You don't advocate raising much p/f.

[/ QUOTE ]Correct. I don't in Omaha-8. Just my style, I guess. I do advocate occasional pre-flop raising, but just enough to mix up your game so as to make your play unreadable and somewhat unpredictable.

(For what it's worth, when playing Texas hold 'em, I mostly raise when voluntarily entering the action. However, I think the nature of Omaha-8 is different enough that pre-flop raises in Omaha-8 do not have the same advantage as in Texas hold 'em.)

Also for what it’s worth, I regularly encounter many individuals who are better poker players than I am. Some of them (rightly or wrongly) advocate usually raising before the flop in limit Omaha-8 ring games.

[ QUOTE ]
I raise a lot more p/f in the 6-max games because flops are usually contested 3-way and it is much easier than in the 9 handed games to scoop pots by driving the other players out through aggression. Do you disagree with this strategy?

[/ QUOTE ]No. If that line of play works well for you, then by all means use it.

[ QUOTE ]
It was just a huge pot that I managed not to get any part of.

[/ QUOTE ]Part of that was simply bad luck. You got a rather good flop for your hand but then the turn and river were no help. With at least one of your opponents betting like a damned fool, there's not much you can do to control matters. You have to be in on the action to profit when someone is betting foolishly.

Why you have to stay in the hand
As I count it, a total of about twenty cards were good for you, four for the full house and sixteen for the nut low.

If the turn is a deuce (3/45), I presume you would fold.

So between the turn and the river:
20/45-(16/45)*(6/44)+(22/45)*(20/44)=
0.444-0.048+0.253 = 0.649

The first term 20/45 or 0.444 is the probability of catching a favorable card on the turn.
The second term (16/45)*(6/44) or 0.048 is a correction term for making the nut low on the turn and then getting counterfeited on the river.
The third term (22/45)*(20/44) or 0.253 is the probability of catching a favorable card on the river if the turn is unfavorable and not a deuce.

0.649 is the probability you'll make the nut low and/or a full house. There are several ways to figure this, and the above is simply the way I happened to figure it this time. (Never a guarantee about my math, but I do try to get it right). At any rate, roughly two times out of three you'll at least get a share of the pot and one time out of three you won't. This is that one time out of three. Tough luck, but it happens.

Buzz

[jschell]

[ QUOTE ]
(4) I don't like raising from UTG because you tend to push people out of the pot in a situation where you should be trying to pull them into the pot. You really should not want to knock out worse lows or non-nut flush draws with the hand. You make money with this hand by collecting from ace-trey lows and king flushes. You want those guys seeing the flop and then chasing when the flop favorable for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was actually UTG+1 with UTG limping in front of me. If UTG hadn't limped, I would have limped instead of raising. I understand your point, though. If it's folded to me, I usually won't raise with this hand, except maybe if I'm on the button.

[ QUOTE ]
So between the turn and the river:
20/45-(16/45)*(6/44)+(22/45)*(20/44)=
0.444-0.048+0.253 = 0.649

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Buzz, I love that you prove many of your points with the applicable math.

[rory]

Why would you fold the flop you have two pair and the nut low draw. Go crazy.