Don's soccer picks 10-7

[donfrap]

YTD: 10.5 wins, 6.5 losses, 7 draws (+3.25 units)

Hope to rebound after a subpar day yesterday

English League 1 (0-.5-0) (-.5)

Crewe -.5 (-106)

English League 2 (-.5-.5-0) (-.54)

Accrington Stanley pk (-115)

English Conference (2-1-0) (+.97)

Dag and Red -1 (-101)

Euro 2008 Qualifiers (0-0-0)

Czech Republic -5.25 (-134)
France -.75 (-116)
Ireland -1.25 (+104)

Belgium 2nd Division (0-0-0)

Antwerp -.75 (+108)

Brazil Serie B (0-0-2)

Atletico -1.5 (-118)
Remo -.75 (-122) 2u

[Utah]

Just curious, have you ever looked at the lines at betwwts, which offers a different type of line where the draw is a seperate bet at there is just a money line on the win?

[donfrap]

i used to bet the regular lines like that on sporting bet, but I changed my whole capping strategy to asian handicapping cause I was losing fairly badly. However, that was before I tweaked everything to where it currently is. I'm pretty hesitant to move around money with the current atmosphere, but I may do it if I continue to get these draws when I am taking a handicap of 1. It may be good for anyone who is following these for fun to take the straight up win bets at their own book, just beware that the juice is sickening on any team that has an asian handicap of 1 or higher.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
i used to bet the regular lines like that on sporting bet, but I changed my whole capping strategy to asian handicapping cause I was losing fairly badly. However, that was before I tweaked everything to where it currently is. I'm pretty hesitant to move around money with the current atmosphere, but I may do it if I continue to get these draws when I am taking a handicap of 1. It may be good for anyone who is following these for fun to take the straight up win bets at their own book, just beware that the juice is sickening on any team that has an asian handicap of 1 or higher.

[/ QUOTE ]It is interesting to compare and it seems to depend on the odds of a loss. I did a quick comparison for a match this week. Here it is for fun.

[donfrap]

can you run this comparison for a match that isn't a pk in the asian handicap. This is pretty interesting....

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
can you run this comparison for a match that isn't a pk in the asian handicap. This is pretty interesting....

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is one. I think my math is correct but I will doublecheck again in the a.m. as I am very tired. The comparison gets tricky as there are different outcomes for each type of bet, but I think I grouped it correctly.

[donfrap]

hmmm.... theres got to be a way to even the two it in terms of betting units. Also a way to figure out when you should bet the draw with the win or not. I can start putting the percentages that my simulations come up with for win/draw/loss starting tomorrow.

[donfrap]

YTD: 14.5 wins, 10.5 losses, 8 draws (+3.59 units)

Today: 4-4-1 (+.34 units)

Would have been a bad day, but the 2 unit play hit, so it evened out. I think that my sims don't work so well for international play, so I'm probably gonna avoid that next time out.

English League 1

Crewe -.5 (-106) W

English League 2

Accrington Stanley pk (-115) D

English Conference

Dag and Red -1 (-101) W (Dag and Red has been easy money the last month.)

Euro 2008 Qualifiers

Czech Republic -5.25 (-134) W
France -.75 (-116) L
Ireland -1.25 (+104) L

Belgium 2nd Division

Antwerp -.75 (+108) L

Brazil Serie B (0-0-2)

Atletico -1.5 (-118) L
Remo -.75 (-122) 2u W

[Utah]

Ha. I missed one of your picks by accident so I ended up +1 for the day. Another great job by you. I love your soccer picks. I even started tracking them on the site you posted.

[donfrap]

[ QUOTE ]
I even started tracking them on the site you posted.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posted a site? man i have a terrible memory, lol... which site is that

EDIT: Never mind, Im a dunce... carry on. I think you were talking about the scoreboard site.