Buying a piece of action

[garcia1000]

Hi readers, I play in a regular home game which is pretty fun. An interesting situation came up, wanted to know your opinion.

We had an 8-player heads-up tournament. It was single elimination, best 2-out-of-3, and started with 100xBB with increasing blinds every 15 minutes. Buy-in was $500, so total prize pool of $4,000. First gets $2,500, second $1,000, third $500.

I didn't play because $500 is outside my bankroll. But... what happened was, after the first round was done, there were four players left (since half of them got knocked out). So these four players are vying for a prize pool of $4,000, which means the expected value of a seat, if everyone is of equal skill, is $1,000.

By now, it is 2AM and getting pretty late, and there are still two more rounds to go. One guy, Dhalsim, has to leave. He sells his seat to another guy, Blanka, for the price of $700.

Blanka is a good player, but he is slightly tilting from some bad beats he took in the cash game which was running concurrently with the tournament. His mild tilt makes him play more loose and aggressive, and his pre-flop raises are larger, in the realm of 7-8x BB.

He asks me if I want to take half of his action for $350. His next matchup is a good, skilful player. Of the other two contestants (at the other table), one is a LAG/maniac, while the other is a TAG.

Is taking half the action a good gamble, or spew?

[Lottery Larry]

" His next matchup is a good, skilful player."

Good skillful means different things heads-up. A LAG is a favorite over a solid player that doesn't adjust.

If solid player would lean towards tightness, and you have the money to gamble with, it might be a +EV. Really depends on how tilty Blanka is.

Actually, for you, it might be more +EV that if you'd play yourself. Your horse won't be scared of the money, and you might.

[Small Fry]

So am I correct that Dhalsim walks away +200 for essentially coming in 4th while Blanka has now paid $1200. So he needs to come in 1st to recover his costs. No wonder he wants to sell part of his action.

As an aside I would never let one player take over for another in any type of tournament, no matter what style.

[garcia1000]

Dhalsim sold his seat to Blanka for $700. So Blanka has paid $700 for a seat. Dhalsim receives $200 net, because he paid $500 to enter the tournament and is now selling for $700.

All four remaining people were asked if it was okay that Blanka substituted for Dhalsim. They all agreed (probably because Dhalsim is the strongest or second strongest player).

I didn't post a trip report for the last thread, so when I get a consensus for the poll a trip report will follow!

[McG]

With four players left in a single-elimination, heads-up tournament, I assume the two losers will play for third.

Whether or not it's a +EV gamble, if the $500 tournament buy-in is beyond your bankroll, then investing $350 for a piece of a tilting player is something you should probably avoid.

[niceh4nd]

[censored] that [censored]

[Small Fry]

[ QUOTE ]
Dhalsim sold his seat to Blanka for $700. So Blanka has paid $700 for a seat. Dhalsim receives $200 net, because he paid $500 to enter the tournament and is now selling for $700.

All four remaining people were asked if it was okay that Blanka substituted for Dhalsim. They all agreed (probably because Dhalsim is the strongest or second strongest player).

I didn't post a trip report for the last thread, so when I get a consensus for the poll a trip report will follow!

[/ QUOTE ]


So they were happy to sustitute in a weaker player? What if it was reversed and the stronger player was taking over? Probably wouldn't be so happy now, would they? This is why I don't allow it. If you ask the players they'll always let the bad guy take over for the good guy.

But was Blanka in the tournament originally? So he now has his original $500 plus the $700 for $1200 total. And the only position that pays more than this is 1st. He needs to sell some of his action to recover his costs. Using your math his EV at this point is $1000 and he's invested $1200. If he wasn't originally involved then that changes everything for him. For you to buy a part of him makes sense assuming he is equal to the other 3. If, as you say, he might be a little weaker and not playing at his best, then I would say it's a bad investment at this point in time.

[rchandra]

[ QUOTE ]

But was Blanka in the tournament originally? So he now has his original $500 plus the $700 for $1200 total. And the only position that pays more than this is 1st. He needs to sell some of his action to recover his costs. Using your math his EV at this point is $1000 and he's invested $1200. If he wasn't originally involved then that changes everything for him. For you to buy a part of him makes sense assuming he is equal to the other 3. If, as you say, he might be a little weaker and not playing at his best, then I would say it's a bad investment at this point in time.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter whether or not Blanka was in the event originally. If he was, he has lost $500 but that doesn't affect his EV of buying Dhalsim's seat. Just like if he had dropped $500 in the toilet earlier today -- you wouldn't say that that affects his EV in the tournament.

It could affect his mindset though, if he is the tilty type who hates to be "stuck" and might try to maximize his chance of being "unstuck" at the cost of EV.

[Small Fry]

It doesn't effect the EV of the position but it does effect his return on investment. His net gain. It's similiar to a rebuy tournament, (except there is no increase in prize money). If I rebuy into a tournament x number of times to recover my investment I need to win x amount. Or can I just base my winnings off of the initial buy in? So its a $20 buy in with unlimited rebuys. I buy in 5 times for $100 total. I finish in 4th which pays $100. Did I win anything? I can't just count the initial buy in and say I netted $80. Same situation here. He initially paid $500 and then rebought in for $700. THe EV of the seat is still $1000 but he's got $1200 invested. A second place finsh results in a net loss of $200. If he sells half for $350 he can then come in second and have a net positive as his investment will be $850. So by giving up $500 of second place money he turns a $200 loss into a $150 gain. It's a no brainer for him to sell in this situation.

[garcia1000]

Blanka wasn't in the event originally.

I agree with the not allowing substitutions thing, because in a tournament it an affect the other players, too.

When I considered the bet and how it related to my bankroll, I was thinking in sort of Kelly criterion terms; I might have a small edge in the tournament, but if it was a 30% discount, that might be a larger edge.