50/100 H.O.E Live Foxwoods

[Thousand_air]

I limp in early with AQ33 double suited. 4 way action. Flop comes 2 J 4 no flush draw. Action goes bet, raise, re-raise. 3 bets to me. At this point I fiqure I have 4 scoop outs and 12 to get half. CAll, fold?

[MightyA6]

<font color="red"> WARNING: I JUST FIGURED OUT I DON'T HAVE A SINGLE CLUE ABOUT WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT!!!! </font>

Start counting? How big is the pot preflop? Don't play omaha/8 but I'll try;
I'd simply count the 12 half pot outs as 10, I think at a high game like this someone might have it enough to make the outs not-full.
That's about 20% for half pot at turn. You ain't got the odds for that unless the pot has been capped preflop. And not even then I guess! (4 bets from 4 players preflop = 16 bets pf, then 4 from 3 players (expect another raise after you) that's 12 bets. 16+12=28 bets. Then you get 28-4, but since you can ONLY win half the pot, I consider it 14-4, that means 3.5 to one. That is not enough.)
8% for the complete pot with 7-1 is not enough here either.

Together, they come in some kind of mathematics I don't have a clue about. I don't think you'd get the odds for the draws but I'll try;

Make 'em equal;
7-1 = 14-2
3.5(?) = 14-4

Together, you get the odds 14-6 = 2,33.. - 1

That is not enough for 28%.

[Bill King]

i like to call in these spots and hope to pick up a broadway/straight card.. sometimes calling gains you extra bets from worse lows

has this game been running regularly or was it a one time thing? last time i went and played 75 HOE they wouldnt play holdem anymore b/c theyre bad at it.

[Thousand_air]

The game has not been going regularly. The 75 Hoe went last weekend but was short. This game was pretty good and full most of the day. Some people walked durring the holdem but the few that stayed just played real week.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I limp in early with AQ33 double suited. 4 way action. Flop comes 2 J 4 no flush draw. Action goes bet, raise, re-raise. 3 bets to me. At this point I fiqure I have 4 scoop outs and 12 to get half. CAll, fold?

[/ QUOTE ]Thousand air – Bet, raise, re-raise??? I smell a rat.

The original bet means little. But does the person who raises want you in the hand or out of the hand? And then does the person who re-raises want you in the hand or out of the hand? On the basis of your post, it’s impossible to know. You have to decide for yourself. Then, seriously consider making the play your opponents do not want you to make.

Regarding your starting hand: I hate low pairs in a starting hand, but I’d certainly play this one too. After this 2J4n flop, AQ33d becomes primarily a low draw hand/flop, but the pair of treys still has high potential (with a trey on the turn or river). If you stick it out, you’ll make the nut low roughly half the time. Some of that will be for a scoop. Very hard to say how much, especially without knowing how many opponents were originally dealt cards and the tightness of the table.

Buzz

Below are the math set-ups:

16/45*39/44 Hero makes nut low on turn, ends up with bad high.
16/45*3/44 Hero makes nut low on turn, but then gets counterfeited with ace, ends up with live trey for low, bad high.
16/45*2/44 Hero makes nut low on turn but then gets counterfeited with trey, ends up with live ace low, trip treys high.
3/45 Hero gets counterfeited with ace on turn, folds on turn.
2/45*12/44 Hero gets counterfeited with trey, makes trip treys on turn, ends up with live ace for low and trip treys for high.
2/45*1/44 Hero gets counterfeited with trey on turn, ends up with quad treys with 24J33 board.
2/45*3/44 Hero gets counterfeited with trey on turn, ends up with trip treys with 24J3A board.
2/45*4/44 Hero gets counterfeited with trey on turn, ends up with wheel with 24J35 board.
2/45*24/44 Hero gets counterfeited with trey on turn, ends up with trip treys with 24J3X board. Wheel is possible.
24/45*16/44 Hero misses on turn, makes nut low on river.
24/45*26/44 Hero misses, folds on river.
24/45*2/44 Hero misses, ends up with trip treys for high.

[rory]

I think you have a lot less outs than you think. Probably someone else is drawing at the same hand and you don't have any great high possibilities. Fold.

[dcb777]

I agree with Rory, this is a fold you are likely drawing to a chop at best, and might get quartered if you hit your hand.

[adanthar]

do you have 2 backdoor flush draws or 1?

looks like hero has something like ~2-3 good backdoor outs for high, not counting fives. that may change things a little.

[wiseheart]

This is kind of opponent dependent, if you have a maniac in there who is 3betting every flop then that is a different story from a competent player 3betting flop.

[Turn Prophet]

I definitely fold here because many times we make a low, we are either counterfeit or quartered, and we have little to no high potential outside the 5 (which, again, may only be good for half). It might make a slight difference if you have 3-card nut flush draw, but probably not enough to sway me into playing vs. folding. I really want to puke if we cap here and the turn rolls off like a 9 and we face heavy action again. In any case, the deck cannot possibly be rich in the cards we need.