Auburn/Buffalo - correlated parlay?

[vulturesrow]

Im pretty sure that Auburn's scrubs can shut down Buffalo. The wildcard is how much Auburn runs up the score. Like Austiger said, Tuberville may not have much say in running up the score against Buffalo. Dont remember much about Lester so I cant comment on how I think he will impact the game. Same goes for Field.

[Your Mom]

you guys may want to check out the football forum on www.covers.com. A guy named powerade has been parlaying the fav and the over and the dog and the under on the same game if the spread is at least 40% of the total on all college games. It's been working pretty well for him.

[ImBen]

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ImBen, where did you get those numbers? I'm with you on this one, I am certain that people greatly oversetimate the number of correlated parlays that exist, but I haven't seen these 2 specific numbers before. I'm also wondering if you know the numbers for 20+ point favorites/dogs, 30+, etc.

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Those are consensus closing lines and results from my NFL database.

There have only been 2 20 point favorites in the NFL since 1993. December 5, 1993, SF -24 failed to cover and the total stayed under. November 11, 2001, STL -20 covered and the total went over.

[ImBen]

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I think you could run Poisson distributions or some other statistical method for avg. scores and see how often they both came in. The scores are way too close for there not to be correlation.

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Poisson distributions for football.

Hahahahahahaha...that's adorable.

[iggymcfly]

OK, so does anyone have a book that's actually taken the Auburn/Buffalo bet? As previously mentioned, Mansion doesn't even have a total listed for the game, and I don't want to deposit money somewhere specifically to make this bet unless I know they'll take it.

[Your Mom]

I have a site called worldofbets.com. It's a website, but it runs through a local bookie so you don't have to make a deposit. You just play on credit just like you would with a bookie. They take them, so I'm going to try this system soon.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Good luck finding a book to take these parlays

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Mansion will take these. So will Bodog. If you look around I'm sure there are others.

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so does sia unless I miss my guess.

[kdog]

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Somebody posted earlier in this thread that Mansion would take this bet. They will NOT take this bet. One, they don't have a total listed. And two, they wouldn't take it even if it were. See the FSU vs. Rice game

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That was me. My bad I guess for not checking to see if they had a total posted for Auburn/Buffalo. My point was that they allow side/total same game parlays. Many books do not.

Now whether they except some games from this such as FSU/Rice or other big line games I don't know. But I have bet parlays like this there as recently as last week.

[ThankgodforRB]

Good deal...yeah, I was wondering on the 20+, 30+ part if the site/database/whatever included NCAAF as well.

I don't keep records of game I don't bet myself so I haven't been able to do the calculations when I get into this discussion with folks. What you show is pretty much what I expected based on my own observations and info from people I know in the industry...nice to see some actual numbers though.

[smbruin22]

yikes... what was the moneyline on buffalo??... i know, famous last words.